Am I not giving this the credit it deserves? It uses data as a tool to "calm" yet it is the very lack of data (which is admittedly acknowledged in this article) that is causing the fear. What we DO have is case studies that demonstrate a glut in healthcare that results in a spike in death. I think it's important to put this in perspective for mental health, but it's also important not to take things lightly because in order to prevent unnecessary death, as many people as possible need to buy-in now, not later. The article then talks down the death rate to as little as .5%. Is Italy not over 8% right now (God I hope I am wrong, did the math in my head based on total cases vs deaths). And it does so in a way that uses creative license instead of hard facts, we get this line for example -"There is little doubt that serious and fatal cases of COVID-19 are being properly recorded." --- perhaps I am being overly critical, but after using data to support a viewpoint throughout the article, the author just uses throwaway lines like that one to move things along. Certainly some good points in it. Or reminders. But you can only sugar coat this so much. A lot of people are dying in what looks to be a slow, painful way.
They said now in tv that these aren't all the deaths. There are also deaths of old people that because they ddin't have time to do the virus tests are official "pneumonia" deaths and not included in the official number. I don't understand how someone ANYONE can see this and walk around and go on his life like normal. Our government here has already started digging HUNDREDS OF GRAVES. We onlly have 13 deaths and the state is already preparing the coffins for the future. Old people are walking outside like normal...the state itself is digging their grave before they even have fallen sick.
I can't even begin to fathom what is going on in Italy. Why is everyone seemingly getting infected? Is it because they are a very social people set in their ways and are not self-quarantining? God I hope that is not what is coming here in the US.
I mean, I like this overall, but he’s really cherry picking a bit, or maybe cheery picking. your % chance of getting the virus of course is just a snapshot in time. the downside of the bell curves in China and South Korea followed severe interventions. his claim that asymptomatic cases are not very important is contraindicated by a nature article yesterday.
Someone I know through a third party died here in Houston from "pneumonia" after having it 3 weeks ago and seemingly recovered. Never got tested for COVID because they didn't get access to tests before death, but seems likely that's what it was.
Hard to be optimstic when im looking on the numbers, 1k deaths a day looks imminent. Looking on their graphs is depressing a week ago there were 1441 deaths in italy due to Coronavirus and now 4825(3384 deaths in one week).
Everyone is already infected. We only see what happened 20 -10 days ago. It's similar like looking at the stars, where you see millions of years in the past. The deaths are the snapshots of who was infected 20-10 days ago. Italy was one of the first countries in the west who took measures. They thought that was enough and even too strict and thought to relax them. This is the timeline. Look how early they started 21 February: February 21 . After the first infection, a red area is created in Lombardy (Lodi): 10 isolated municipalities (50 thousand people), schools, offices and shops closed, no masses and football matches, inhabitants invited to stay at home. In Veneto: in 2 municipalities schools closed and closed places frequented by the 2 infected. February 22 . Government decree with military blockade (police) of the red zone in Lombardy and in Vo 'Euganeo, nobody can go out or enter anymore. In red areas no funeral. Stop to all sporting events in Lombardy and Veneto. Lombard universities decree suspension of activities until March 2, the first events postponed in Milan. Stop on school trips. February 23 . Milan "yellow zone": closed Duomo, Scala and other cultural places. Bars and clubs closed at 6pm. Fashion shows behind closed doors. Schools closed all over Lombardy. Postponed Serie A matches. Schools and clubs closed in Turin (only shops open). Canceled Venice carnival. Stop at universities in Lombardy. Piedmont, Veneto, Emilia-Romagna, Friuli VG University also closed in Genoa. Schools closed throughout Liguria. Public competitions postponed in Rome. First partial blocks of universities in the rest of Italy in a leopard spot. February 25 . The Governor of the Marche issues an order for the closure of all schools, challenged by the government. Schools in the province of Palermo closed. The Milan Furniture Fair has been postponed. February 26. Lombardy reopened bars and restaurants after 18, but with a maximum limit of seats. February 27 . Duomo: decided to reopen from Monday 2 March. Lombardy, Piedmont, Veneto evaluate the reopening of schools. February 29. Eight days extended closing of schools in Lombardy, Veneto and Emilia-Romagna. In the three regions, businesses open only if they respect distances. For the rest of the country, a gradual return to normal has been decided (excluding some single municipalities at risk). 1st March. Italy division into Three confirmed: Red zone (Codogno etc.), yellow zone (Three Northern regions) and rest of the country. Closure of schools also extended in Friuli and the province of Savona and Pesaro-Urbino. 3rd March. Vinitaly returned to Verona. Outbreak emerges in the Bergamo area, hypothesis of widening the red zone. Non-urgent hearings suspended at the Milan court. Second infected singer at La Scala, slide reopening. Italian Cup of Juventus postponed in Turin. The government plans to play all sports behind closed doors throughout Italy. A vademecum was issued asking to stay at least one meter away from the others, to avoid physical contacts, handshakes, kisses and hugs to greet each other. The over 75 are invited not to go out. 4th March. Schools and universities stopped until March 15th throughout Italy. Stop at crowded events where safety distance cannot be respected. Sports behind closed doors. March 5. Stop all non-urgent processes throughout Italy. Parliamentarians referendum postponed. Church: Masses only on Sundays in the most affected regions, in the rest of the country masses ok but respecting government indications (distance etc.). In the North but also in other areas, speakers close and catechism stops, pre-wedding courses etc. Rome, Stramilano, Italy-England rugby match six nations marathon canceled. Canceled first cycling races. March 8 is forbidden. 8th of March. Total closure of Lombardy and 14 other provinces (in Emilia, Piedmont, Veneto and Marche) until April 3. Measures foreseen in the new orange zone: entry and exit prohibited (except for certified work or health reasons), outdoor activities only, shops open only if safety distance is respected, no first aid for accompanying persons, closed discos, clubs, cinemas, gyms. Bars and restaurants open only until 6pm and with safety distances. Suspended weddings and funerals. Schools closed until April 3, all competitions postponed except health. Throughout Italy: pubs, cinemas and discos closed, stops at any event, places of culture closed. Races and games only behind closed doors. Weddings, yes, but without guests. March 9. Italy as whole as Lombardy, all closed. Bars and restaurants closed at 6pm. Stop at Serie A. You can only leave the house to go to work and to do your shopping or bring your dog. Public offices open. Funerals without mass and without marches, only blessing at the cemetery with close relatives (and at a distance). Suspension of communions, baptisms, confirmations and marriages. The blessing of families postponed until Easter. March 11th. Strengthened measures throughout Italy: only food, pharmacies and newsagents remain open. Banks are also open (even if the various institutions introduce special rules and timetables). Guaranteed transport and essential services but with reduced journeys, everything else closed. Industries and agriculture ahead but with security measures. Motor activities in parks and gardens are still allowed. The churches of Rome closed. March 12 . The sport is heading towards closure worldwide. Many municipal administrations close parks, beaches and promenades. March 13 . The Pope reopens the churches of Rome "for the poor". Bishops in each diocese decide whether to keep open by maintaining security measures. March 14. Transport Minister Paola De Micheli cancels night trains from the north to curb the exodus to the south. Temperature controls for those arriving at southern stations. March 17. Close on the controls for those who leave "for no reason". Thousands of fines. New self-certification obligation stating that they are not quarantined. You can run or walk but always around the house. No to travel by car or motorbike to go for sports. European Football Championship postponed to 2021. New early closing times for supermarkets introduced March 18 . A further squeeze is ready: supermarkets closed on Sunday (or only in the morning) and stop for outdoor sports.
My friend is a cardiologist and he has been keeping up with one critical case in Houston. 51 year old diabetic that has been in the ICU and was close to being put on a ventilator. His lung xrays were a disaster. They gave him hydroxychloroquine and Kaletra and his condition improved dramatically over the next few days and he got out of the ICU yesterday. He said these are the only 2 anti virals they are using at this point. He also said HCQ and Azithromycin should only be used under the supervision of a doctor because taken together they can have serious heart arrhythmia issues. However, he said he had heard there were promising results when both were taken together. This is one giant experiment we are in so let's hope these work.
i'm not responding to the specifics of what y'all saying - I just wanted to tag you in my reply. I'm not here to suggest everything is good and this problem is solved. But there can be nuggets of good news in a sea of bad things. It seems to me everyone is one side or the other, with people in the doom camp having no ability to see signs of hope, and vise-versa. Interesting things I found from that article: Death rates are declining over time. This is likely from better testing and seeing more of the "mild" cases, but it's a really good sign if this thing actually is killing less of the people truly infected. Many of countries ahead of us in the quarantining are seeing results. China is even getting close to re-opening society. South Korea never even had to close their society. If that holds, combined with a lower mortality rate, that suggests that if we can make substantial progress on testing and tracking, we could open up society before we have necessarily stopped the problem entirely. The growth rates do seem to be diminishing rather than growing. Not a huge amount, but infection rates don't necessarily seem to be maintaining the "doubling every X days" speed. The bell curve in both China and South Korea suggests that two entirely different strategies for tackling the problem had similar results. There is potential that there's something inherent to the virus that may also help it naturally die out (for all we know, a bunch of people are immune to it for some reason or other, for example). Not enough data yet, but if more countries with different strategies come out of this with similar turns, there's hope there as well. Obviously he gets into economics and politics towards the end, where I think he goes off course. But we have a huge tendency to look at data in a very simplistic way - I think it's always worth looking at things from different angles and seeing if the data might be hinting at things we're not seeing in the topline numbers.
These things could be a good sign going forward - the real hardcore measures went into effect about 10 days ago. So if deaths are 10-15 days delayed, it may suggest they are nearing the end of the peak there for now.
Seems like some light weight stuff compared to what my conspiracy theory friend is buying. What’s really going on, is this was planned biologicall warfare, and is being controlled by the government and Bill Gates, the plan is to kill off the old and sickly, and then force everybody to be vaccinated...WITH it being made public record, with vaccinations being put on your ID, with the government scanning your face for facial recognition so whenever you walk into stores and airports etc they can see if your vaccinated. This will be under the guise of the “greater good” but is just another step of control and enslavement by the government, similar to how 9/11 was done just to take away our freedoms and track our messages. Stay woke.
UK making a smart move by shifting all private resources to public, nurses, equipment etc. going to the NHS. Imagine that happening in the US..
Please, stop spreading misinformation by comparing the US to South Korea and Singapore. They are highly technocratic societies with cameras on every square inch of soil that monitor citizen movements - the single largest factor in being able to identify and target the afflicted. That is what allowed them to crush the outbreak. Misinformation from people like Major, who only read snippets of news articles and want to come off as experts, leads to a loss of lives.
