It's feels dumb to look too deeply into our team stats for the season, because of all the roster/lineup turnover, the inexperience, and the subtle/not-so-subtle tanking going on throughout the year. But in looking beyond the obvious team stats (like being 30th in DRtg), and some surprising positive team stats (1st in FTRate and Dunks made), two areas of concern stuck out to me. Again, there are quite a few areas we could focus on, but I think we could make a solid jump as a team next year if we can address the underlying causes of these two, even with a stupidly young roster. #1: We are 30th (by far) in % of 3PA from corner We shoot the most 3PA from above the break (35.1 3PA) in the league, and the fewest 3PA (7.1 3PA) in the league from the corners. If you look at team stats semi-regularly, this is a pretty jarring discrepancy. This basically tells you that we’re jacking 3s without doing a good job of actually creating them, and the eye-test supports this. We all know corner 3s are the most efficient shot in basketball (outside of dunks), and unsurprisingly, we were #1 in the L in corner 3PA during our ’17-‘18 season. The easiest way to get corner 3s is to collapse the defense, either by a penetrating guard (most common) or by getting the ball to an interior fulcrum (i.e. Jokic). The threat of the lob is an important secondary factor in creating corner 3s, as the backline defender usually has to choose between the lob man in the dunker's spot and the shooter in the corner, once the P&R ball-handler gets into the paint. This one could be improved indirectly, but again, it goes back to having a legitimate playmaker. The top-5 teams in corner 3PA are CHA, MIA, UTA, DAL and DEN; all have different roster builds, but manage to create good looks. I think Jalen Green and Sengun’s development will help quite a bit, but having some additional help both in terms of playmaking and vertical threats is critical. How we use Sengun is important, because he's not a vertical threat if we stick him in the dunker's spot, but his vision can be a huge asset otherwise. #2) We are 30th in TO% and also last (by far) in Opp points off TOs Other teams are making a killing off our TOs and sloppy passes. This isn't unusual for a rebuilding/tanking team, but we're quite a bit worse than the other bottom-dwellers. Most of our other defensive metrics aren‘t good, but are largely towards the middle of the pack (15th-25th). But the combination of our high TO-rate and our #1 pace creates a ton of easy transition buckets for opponents. The obvious explanation is because we were playing KPJ as our PG and many of our secondary ball-handlers were rookies. I'm not worried about Green or Christopher moving forward, but I do think we need to move on from KPJ, and add a veteran PG who can run an offense for 20-25 mpg in the offseason. This isn't even to win games -- it's for offensive structure, which our young guys absolutely need to develop. It's like a rebuilding NFL team with some young talented WRs, the least they can do is get them a serviceable veteran QB to get them some touches (until a better long-term solution comes around, perhaps via the draft)
The Turnover question gets fixed with greater spacing and better shooters on the perimeter. The old, What came first the chicken or the egg confusion comes with the 3-pt shooting dilemma. Spacing opens up driving lanes or does good facilitators open up 3-pt shooting? Short answer, well both. Problem is, and I've said it all season, our poor shooters are killing our spacing in the lane. Here are the season numbers for the main players: 21/22 season: Left Corner 3: Player..........3PA....3P% Jalen Green: 47......36.2% Tate.............: 41......22.0% Kenyon........: 30......26.7% C Wood........: 22......50.0% Sengun.........: 2........0% Porter jr........: 23......47.8% Mathews......: 69......34.8% Josh C..........: 24......41.7% Right Corner 3: Player...........3PA......3P% Jalen Green..: 23........34.8% Tate...............: 40........42.5% Kenyon..........: 15........33.3% Wood.............: 19........42.1% Sengun...........: 8.........25.0% Porter jr..........: 22.......45.5% Mathews........: 26.......26.9% Josh C............: 25.......24.0% Above the Break: Player..........3PA.....3P% Jalen Green: 373.....34.3% Tate.............: 117.....29.9% Kenyon........: 114.....39.5% Wood...........: 294.....38.1% Sengun........: 93.......28.0% Porter jr.......: 347.....35.7% Mathews....: 282......36.5% Josh C........: 127......29.9% So everyone wants to shoot from Above the Break...the ones that can shoot from the corners arent very sure of themselves and we may not want them in the corner. If you recall, 17/18 had two of the best corner shooters in Ariza and Tucker. This is one of the reasons I want Jabari. He is good at left corner 3. Here is the shot chart: https://images.app.goo.gl/HjJQCwPT8DJoMxLK8 vs Chet shot chart: https://www.google.com/search?q=che...d=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8#imgrc=AM44zlwW0Mi13M Better shooting 3-pt shooting will open up everything. Plus I love how Jabari shots are all spread out vs Chet. Jabari could swing that SF spot. Chet is more efficient from at the rim/in front and straight away 3.
I was so high on Mathews but he has really struggled. Teams try to shadow him around the 3-pt line closer than any Rocket, imo. But like Steph Curry; seems to be most dangerous drifting to his left. I feel like teams have him scouted that way. He needs to develop shooting 3's while moving right better. Imo.
Coaching matters. MDA coached the hell out of generating gravity - corner 3's, easy layups, pace, FTA, limiting turnovers and creating turnovers. 3P% FT% TOV% Win all 3 areas and team gets a W. https://www.basketballinsiders.com/news/the-genesis-of-mike-dantonis-gravity-based-offense/
Green may have that gravity. MDA figured out how to make Knicks competitive W/O Melo, even taking that team built around first David Lee and then Jeremy Lin to playoffs. D'Antoni had a better record than previous Knicks coaches Larry Brown and Isiah Thomas. Coaching matters.
Excellent post. The corner 3 was so dangerous when we had PJ Tucker camped out here. I’d love to see Jabari Smith in that role next year with a better PG. As for points allowed off of turnovers, and I’ve said this many times, KPJ is the worst player I have ever seen about getting back on defense when something goes wrong for him, especially after turnovers. That’s on him, but it’s also on the coaches for allowing it to happen. I’m not saying that’s the cause, but effort is definitely a factor at times defensively, and our guys spend way too much time pouting, sulking, and complaining about the officiating when they should be getting back on defense. That’s as much on Silas and the other coaches as it is on anyone.
Know who is also good at the corner 3? Paolo Banchero! Plus P5 can collapse a defense and create that shot for other shooters on the team.
Maybe it's just me but the number of quality looks a team gets in the corner 3 zones is dependent on how much the opposing team focuses on the primary ball handler. We were so used to seeing defenses getting sucked into whatever Harden did at the top of the three point line that we forget that it's not easy to get those corner 3 attempts without either an elite play maker or a very good offensive system and we currently have neither one. The one thing I will point out here is how much Porter excels at the corner 3s..or just spot up shooting in general.
Great post. By the way I think getting open corner 3's are easier said than done, especially now that every team knows it's the most efficient shot, so the first thing the defense does is shading it on a drive. It's one thing to collapse the defense on a drive, it's a completely different skill to be able to throw a good non-telegraphed pass to a open corner shooter while in motion. I feel like neither Green nor KPJ has shown the ability to read the defense to make this pass that players like Luka, Lebron, Jokic makes to the corner. That's also why KPJ has TO issues, because his passes are too predictable, and bad passes to the corner are very easily picked off
Its funny that this is the current narrative when statistics say something else about the offensive scheme. Everyone hates on Silas .... But here's the bottom line The Rockets lead the league in Dunks. Those are generally the highest percentage shot in the game. The Rockets get the most "Open / Wide Open" 3's in the league. Those are the most efficient shots in the game and a big part of why Jalen Green was able to shoot better than 40% from three for the last month of the season is Silas offense. Offense wasn't the Rockets problem, well, except giving up the most points off of turnovers in the league .... but that's mostly a product of Kevin Porter Jr running the point (The real tank commander?). Their problem is defense - they couldn't stop anyone and that starts with their centers not protecting the rim and you can't blame that on Silas. Defense is about effort .... CWood might be the worst defensive center in the league and Sengun just isn't long / athletic enough to be a solid rim protector. League worst points allowed in the paint, League worst defensive FG%, League worst in opponents fast break points, League worst points off turnovers. 26th in the league in Opponents 2nd chance points. No, the offense wasn't the problem.
The premise of the thread dealt with corner 3s and why we're last in the league in terms of attempts per game, not whether or not our offense was the problem. My response was to outline a possible reason as to why we do generate more corner 3s (the part you bolded). Corner 3s aren't generated in the same manner as 3s from other locations--no player is going to do a step back corner 3 or pull up from that location. Most corner 3s are taken as a catch and shoot and the offense that is being ran right now isn't geared towards generating those kinds of shots.
This chart is from an old Grantland article about how often shot attempts at certain spots on the floor are assisted attempts. Would be interesting to see a chart from this season to see if there is much of a difference. My guess would be not much.
I don't think there's going to be a huge difference either because there's limited real estate behind that corner 3 point line to operate with. Luka, Trae Young, Morant, etc aren't going to want and dribble the ball past half court and make their way to either corner 3 to start an offense. They basically would funnel themselves into a tighter space to operate. I have no doubt that if you look at the most prolific corner 3 shooters in recent history their profile would look more like the PJ Tuckers, Bruce Bowens, etc. where that particular location makes up for most--if not all--of their 3 point attempts. Unless Silas either runs an offense that has plays designed specifically to have that corner 3 open or we have a primary ball handler that can pull the defense's gravity towards him we're most likely not going to see a huge number of corner 3s taken.
Agree on TO. And definitely agree on corner 3. We take 3's but a good chunk of them are not the high % corner 3. Glad OP dug up the numbers to confirm eye test.
