I'm still optimistic about his handles long-term. He's above average in relation to players with similar measurables, and it looks good when he has space. But right now, if defenders collapse on him after he makes his move I'm anticipating a turnover, or him having to kick it back out. I see your point though, absorbing contact, carving out his own space, and being more agile/bendy than fast is probably his path to reaching full unicorn status.
He has shown no real issues on switches. He will sometimes lose on the first step but he has a quick second and third step and has shown an ability to alter or block shots while recovering which is rare. He is a better shot blocker, better at shot altering and boxing out and rebounding than Smith. Smith is arguably a better three point shooter and perimeter defender. Smith is a more explosive athlete than Holmgren but he isn't really able to defend the post like Chet can. The defensive upside for Holmgren is likely higher because he is such a good team defender. He is rare, he doesn't have to be parked in the paint to block shots and alter shots. A lot of his shot blocking are a result of him coming over from the perimeter into the paint on penetration. He will be able to get off 3's over anyone. Will he be able to isolate and score? That I don't know honestly. I wouldn't count on it but I don't think he needs to do that to be the best player on a very good team. Banchero can put the ball on the floor and score. I don't think he is really all that great at creating for others honestly. I think he is above average but I don't think he is a point forward and is more of a secondary creator. Banchero is also a mediocre defender, and the Rockets already have too many of those. The Rockets cannot afford more poor defenders. As for Smith, I would be fine with him going #1 and by the time of the draft may personally think he is the top prospect in this draft. Smith has a higher offensive ceiling than Holmgren as a scorer. Smith has about the same playmaking ability as Holmgren but he is a better explosive athlete and he can penetrate and make tough shots. That is very important. Also he will be a good to possibly very good defender but he isn't likely to make the defensive impact that Chet will. Smith is starting to create for himself. He can make very tough shots. Chet certainly has the upside to be a very high level second guy. I think he has the upside to be the best player on an elite team. He is so good defensively, he is so incredibly efficient and he can score in a number of ways.
In January and February Chet is second on the Bulldogs in field goal attempts. In those months he has a PER48 of 34/18/6.5/1.5 Over that time period he is the leading scorer on the Bulldogs. In that time period has 3 point fg% is 61% and his 2 point fg% is 77% and from the line he is shooting 84%.
I can't disagree with any of this i just don't think rim protecting is as big of a factor as it used to be unless you are building your defense around that and I am not sure if Chet can be somebody you park in the paint and not sure who he will check on the perimeter, I have not seen him switch or guard perimeter guys but I have not really been looking. I will try and watch out for that but again we are talking about college perimeter guys and not NBA guys and even you have questioned his laterall quickness. I did not know this, so I guess they are involving him in the offense more, but most of what I see has been spot ups, straight line drives or put backs. Just want to see him with a little wiggle in his game, I think they are gonna need it come NCAA time.
Due to his insane length and hip flip, Chet can successfully switch because of his ability to recover. But Chet has such high IQ that he always tries to play to his strengths so he does not play tight instead allowing space so he can use his length to make up for the separation. Chet is already better switching than Sengun. And like Sengun would be best in drop coverage.
Insane hip flip? I have not seen it, he looks a bit stiff laterally, I am not saying he can't do it but can he do it at a high level and I don't think Sengun is that great at it either so I don't know where he comes in to the equation. We are talking about NBA level athletes, so you can't always play to your strengths and players know weaknesses. And even if he is a great perimeter defender, he would still just be a very high level 3 and D guy.
I agree that he is mostly defending and catching up to college perimeter players and not NBA players, but there isn't much we can do about it. Also to be clear I don't expect him to be able to be put in isolation as a defender against a top tier scoring guard and shut them down. I expect him to be able to recover enough to alter their shot and impact their field goal percentage. He isn't as nimble on his feet as say Mobley who has a quicker first step. He is going to be better than the vast majority of centers though, and he has a really high motor and strong closing speed. The concern with him if I had one will be home heavy mileage will impact his knees and feet because he is constantly moving on the court and that can wear some players down. Now he isn't as big as most of the guys with knee and leg problems so he may not have the problem. Yeah Gonzaga is starting to feature him more on offense. It has actually been the guards that have gotten him more involved. He has handled the ball in transition a lot where he really excels and he has been a trailer in a lot of situations. He shoots the ball from a high point and has an extremely high release point like Durant so he will likely always be able to get his shot off without a problem off a pass. I have seen him put the ball on the floor and beat guys to the bucket a few times. I have not seen him isolate and beat defenders off the dribble or beat multiple defenders straight up. I don't if he will ever do that, but if he did that consistently then you would be looking at a possible era defining player like LeBron and Jordan. What I can say is he will likely be able to pull up and shoot over defenders just because of his 7'6" wingspan, his agility and his handle. He is an interesting athlete. He has a mediocre first step both offensively and defensively. It is better than other centers but it is well behind Mobley or even someone like Christian Wood. However, he has a very good second step and an exceptional third step. So it lets him recover defensively and it makes him a beast offensively in transition. As a jumper he actually gets off the ground very well and has a good straight up vertical but he isn't someone that can Jump long distances. So it makes him very good at finishing inside and a good shot blocker. It makes him not someone that will just go over the top against elite athletes to finish. He has excellent flexibility in movement and can adapt, but he isn't going to stop on a dime and explode. Last, he is rail then but has a surprisingly strong core and uses his body in such a way to keep players from pushing him out of the post.
I said insane length. And hip flip. But watch him flip his hips when he's beaten, very much like a defensive back in football. His hip flip allows him to stay even with player he's defending or just behind, easily within range of his pterodactyl like wingspan to affect the shot if not outright block it. And Chet's blocks doesn't send ball into bleachers, he seems to control the ball and keeps it in play. I still have him 1B to Jabari but more I watch Chet the more and more I like him. And I have always been a fan.
Very fair takes, and it seems we keep coming back to the same things. I am not a guy who thinks certain types have injury risks, but I am weary about asking a guy with his body type to do a lot of moving, mainly because of knee and joint issues. It think it affects me picking a guy that high up in the draft.
Good analysis. I prefer Chet to Jabari because of BBIQ and he never seems to take a play off. Jabari doesn’t seem as focused or as aggressive as Chet on either side of the court.
I agree that Chet has the higher IQ and his play is more consistent. And you can't teach height. True 7 footers with guard skills are a good investment.
Hollinger: "PROSPECT OF THE WEEK: Chet Holmgren, 7-1, Freshman, C, Gonzaga Seen by many analysts as a potential No. 1 pick entering 2021-22, Chet-mania had lost some steam in the early part of the season after Holmgren underwhelmed in high-profile games against Texas, Duke, Alabama and Texas Tech. He ceded the top spot on several draft boards to two other elite freshmen, Duke’s Paolo Banchero and Auburn’s Jabari Smith Jr., and scouts asked more questions about his potential offensive role and dubious physicality (the rail-thin Holmgren is listed at 7-1, 195 pounds). Well, it took a bit, but just look at Holmgren now. Get on the Chet train, folks, because it’s going places. His stat line and eye test in Saturday night’s demolition of a good BYU team on the road — 20 points, 17 rebounds, six assists and five blocks — was the latest eye-popping box-score line from Gonzaga’s freshman center. Against the other strong conference opponent he’s faced thus far, San Francisco, Holmgren scored 22 points on 10 shots and added nine rebounds and four blocks for good measure. He has three straight 20-10 games even while sitting out the last several minutes of Gonzaga blowout wins. And in retrospect … was his start to the season that bad? Holmgren’s full-season stats are awesome. He leads the country in BPM and is fifth among major conference players in PER; the four players ahead of him are upperclassmen beast-ball centers. Holmgren is a center but of a different mold: He’s shooting 46.3 percent on 3s, averages 4.3 assists per 100 possessions and often dribbles his own rebounds down the court. There have been some questions over whether his skinny frame would basically make him Myles Turner on offense — a standstill 3-point shooter whom teams can defend with a shooting guard due to the lack of a post threat. Holmgren’s recent work inside the paint makes that possibility seem less daunting, as he’s been able to get early seals and turn for dunks or short jumpers. And have we mentioned the defense? With a 12.3 percent block rate, Holmgren makes the basket area a no-fly zone while still having enough mobility to stay reasonably solid on the perimeter. He’ll be tested much more at the next level in this regard, but early returns seem encouraging. Between Holmgren’s play and Smith’s recent struggles, we can — at the very least — call the race for No. 1 an open discussion. I’m generally not a huge fan of drafting centers, but if Holmgren is really just a gigantic freak combo forward, then we’re having an entirely different discussion. Can he be Kevin Garnett? Probably not — there’s only one player in history for whom this is a yes. But the fact is, we’re looking at those kinds of upside comps right now."
It took a while but Holmgren is now shooting an insane 46% from 3 at 3 attempts per game, to go along with his defense and all around offensive game. https://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/players/chet-holmgren-1.html I still won't take him no 1 over Smith but I'm not sure who is better between him and Banchero anymore. Banchero is still definitely the more classic guy you know will be a star but Holmgren is the higher risk/reward/unicorn prospect with the genius bball IQ, perimeter defense and 3 pt spacing which you want from a modern day PF. Hopefully Rox luck into a top 3 pick again and get one of these 3 guys on the squad.
He does also play significant time against the other teams second unit but then again props to him for dominating those guys
