3. Houston Rockets Draft odds: first, 14 percent for first, 52.1 percent for top four A young team like the Rockets could really use Holmgren. And one thing is for certain: Holmgren would bring greater effort than Christian Wood, who remains a talented big man but doesn’t set a tone for his teammates. Holmgren is someone who brings constant energy as a defensive anchor. The duo of Holmgren and Jalen Green could turn into appointment viewing on League Pass, with Holmgren serving as the defensive anchor and Green fueling the offense. There’s even like a 1.7 percent chance they would become Gen Z’s version of Kobe and Shaq as a lethal scorer and a center unlike anyone else before him. Wherever it lands, Houston needs to nail this pick. Green may not be enough of a playmaker for Smith to make sense as the choice, and Banchero’s bad habits at Duke might not go away for a team that’s still not ready to win. Ivey and Green would make a dynamic backcourt duo but both are score-first players. Holmgren could share the court with Alperen Sengun, who checks the type of boxes that Drew Timme does as a playmaking presence who can complement him. With Green in tow, though, Houston is one of best fits for Holmgren to grow with a young core.
The fact that Gonzaga is a mid-major and plays very weak competition for over half their schedule makes his inclusion on this list less relevant.
This isn't actually true at all. The WCC is top heavy with their top 5 all being good teams. The zags out of conference schedule is very competitive playing the likes of duke, bama, ucla, ut, TT. There season schedule is far from some cake walk bc people just want to assume the WCC is top to bottom weak because they don't know about the teams. St. Mary's, BYU, SF, SC are all quad 1 teams. Funny thing is as an example Duke had a weaker schedule than they did
Chet Holmgren in his 8 games against ranked opponents this year (UT, Duke, UCLA, TT, St. Marys (2), Memphis, Bama) 8.8 PPG 7.8 RPG 1.1 APG 3.2 BPG 48% FG 14% 3FG 63% FT Tell me that's not worrisome. I don't think the WCC is "trash," but the physical talent level is considerably lower than that of the average Major conference team. Holmgren has struggled throughout the year against athletic/bigger teams from other conferences, while putting up big #s against conference opponents -- this isn't a coincidence. The next few rounds of basketball will be telling.
The physical talent level is just an assumption folks want to roll with because its an easy take. However it isn't true. People want to believe the ACC was talented this year. However it pretty much sucked outside of maybe 4-5 teams
Big difference between struggling and his on court play. He struggled more with St. Mary’s than any other game outside of Texas game which was his second college game and only played 23 min with 3 FGA He played well against Alabama, UCLA, Duke and first game against St. Mary’s. Rebounding, blocked shots and being an anchor on defense is pretty important. FGA in those games you mentioned are low
That is kind of subjective..... Against UCLA he was 6 of 8 from the field ...... Against Duke he was 8 of 13 from the field...... in one of the games against St. Mary's he was 5 for 10 from the field........ against Memphis he was 4 for 7 from the field. So no he didn't struggle against all ranked opponents this year. He struggled after getting in early foul trouble against UT, he only shot 3/9 against Alabama but still had a dozen rebounds and 4 blocks in only 21 minutes..... against TT he only took 4 shots, he missed 3 of them but in 24 minutes he still had 11 rebounds and 3 blocks.... The only games he really struggled against was the UT game and a late game against St. Mary's..... and the reality is most of the non conference games were early in the season and Holmgren improved as the year went on. I don't consider the Memphis game to really be a bad game, he complete shut down Memphis inside. If your concern is scoring, then that is fine.... he had some games out of conference where he didn't score a lot, although most of those were in limited minutes and he still defended really well, blocked shots and got rebounds. He still needs to get stronger..... not necessarily bulking but stronger..... his hands need to get stronger so he can secure some of the rebounds he misses out on, and with more core strength he will stop some post scoring (although he is already better at that than most think).
I get that players should be put under a microscope when discussing the top of the draft and especially unique players such as Holmgren. I would just warn against sample size and simply looking at things such as total points, etc. For example it has become the narrative that Wenbanyama dominated Holmgren in the U-19 games..... first, it was only one game..... but even then the reality wasn't than Wenbayama dominated him. Wenbayama finished with 22/8/8 .... with 5 fouls, shot under 50% from the floor and made a lot of his points from the line. Holmgren had 10/5/2/2 and was a +8 and Team USA went on a run and won when Chet went back into the game.... and he slowed down Wenbanyama when he was in the game. Further, the best player in that game was..... Michael Miles .... Also if you watched the game you could see that Wenbayama was clearly longer and a little taller.... he was very nimble on his feet for someone his size. However, he struggled a lot as a play maker and when doubled. Now Wenbayama is over a year younger than Chet and those skills may develop and possibly even be better than Holmgren's, but right now there are concerns about his game as a shooter and a passer. With Chet he just needs to get stronger..... but so does Wenbayama. I don't know that one game really matters.... but I have watched it several times and the most impressive player IMO was not Chet or Victor.... or Miles, the most impressive player, that one stood out athletically to me, the one that was the best athlete on the floor, that went over Victor and got sick of waiting on Chet at the trailer was...... Jaden Ivey, who not only looked really good offensively, but was very good defensively.
I would also add that, IMO, the single greatest advantage either has over the other is Mobley's athleticism He is more vertically explosive, slightly stronger, significantly better sliding laterally, and generally lighter/quicker on his feet overall with better balance Chet's biggest edge is in his offensive skillset as you mentioned While Mobley can continue developing to close that gap by improving his skill level, there's really nothing Chet can do to close the gap in athleticism I expect both guys to become perennial DPoY finalists, All-DEF team locks, and anchor top-5 team defenses for the next decade Basically Gobert level DEF impact Anything they give you on OFF is just gravy, and boy can they bring the gravy now and then Doubt either ever becomes the alpha scorer on a contender However, they are about as perfect a complement as could be designed in a lab to pair as the 2nd star next to a ball-dominant perimeter scorer Think ADavis once finally paired with LeBron Or KG once he found Pierce/Ray In some ways this type of superstar is more rare, and more valuable in all around contributions to winning They just aren't the type that can carry their team's OFF consistently and singlehandedly like the elite scorers
Mobley is a better athlete for sure. But Chet is still an elite athlete for that size. Specially by mobility standards. If Mobley is an A athlete, Chet is a B to B+ athlete.
Fair enough, but I guess my main problem comes from those who are painting him as the can't-miss prospect at the top of this Draft, and cherry-picking stats/metrics when his level of competition this season was not the same as the guys he's being placed in the same category as (Zion, AD, etc). Like I said, I have big questions about all the top 3, and Jabari might be the most worrisome because he doesn't standout the way Chet does on D or Banchero does on O (though he does project as a solid 2-way guy). Chet's an incredibly unusual prospect. He can change the game without scoring, which is something not many other top prospects can claim. But I do think he'll struggle more on O to begin his career than his Gonzaga #s might suggest.
No he did not completley shut Memphis inside Deandre Williams had 14 points and Dandridge had 8 points. Neither of those guys are going to be rotational NBA guys so how is he going to do against NBA level talent in the paint. Let's have a realistic conversation and stop claiming he shut down Memphis inside. Williams scored over his average and Dandridge scored double his average.
Yeah… he did shut down Memphis. He spent most of his time guarding Duren when he was on the court and Timme guarded Dandridge often. Williams was only guarded by Holmgren part of the time and it took him 13 shots to get 14 points. Holmgren had twice as many blocks as the other 17 players that played in that game. On the radio Giovani discussed that Memphis shot 32% when Chet guarded the shooter. He isn’t a can’t miss prospect. He isn’t in the same class as Shaq or LeBron as a prospect. His lack of strength is a valid concern. I think he is the most valuable prospect in this draft because his upside is extremely high and it is reasonably obtainable. I can’t speak for others, but I don’t think Chet is can’t miss and wouldn’t be the #1 prospect a lot of seasons. If I had to guess the best player in this draft is Ivey - but while Holmgren is less likely than Ivey to be the best player, his value if he “hits” makes him more valuable IMO.
Another skinny ass dude to play the 5 lol. But then again mobley is a skinny ass dude. I don’t follow NCAA so no real answer here. But he skinny AF tho
We are getting into a bit of semantics here. Most of Memphis scores came within 15 feet of the basket and over half of those were in the lane, so I don't see how anyone would think he shut Memphis down inside. They certainly did not stay close with Gonzaga by shooting the 3. And even if you think he did, that's not saying much because none of those guys are high level post scorers and Duren is terrible in the post.
I am on Chet to Houston bandwagon. Honestly, if he is really down to 4th prospect in this draft, I hope we fall down to 4th pick so we don't draft wrong. He is the best fit. He seems the fittest to play with Green and Sengun. Imagine having a 3nD guy this size receiving amazing passes from sengun.
We should have taken Mobley, and now a chunk of you guys want to compound that mistake my taking Chet. SMH!
