Ausar's numbers are good here but Amen's are nuts. Some of them are better than anybody in the last 3 drafts combined
40" vertical wont mean you have top 3, athleticism in the NBA. I mean yeah they are athletic beasts, but its another to say yhey have top 3, athleticism in the entire NBA if they played today. I dunno how they do these drills but for me its better to just rely on the draft combine so the standards are consistent.
Those aren't my words, those are the words of multiple draft analysts. (About Amen, not Ausar, who isn't quite as elite of an athlete.) The overall package is pretty wild. Amen is elite in basically every category. He's not right at the top in all of them, but few players have his combination of elite levels in so many different athletic talents.
I dunno man how much difference does that make though? Kendall Brown is 6'8 with 41 inch vertical hasnt helped his case cuz he cant shoot.
My point is just if he really is all that athletic why he only got 16 6 vs high schoolers? I'd like to think a top 3 nba athlete would do more damage than that if he is 2 yrs older and vs non nba competiton. Anyway I guess we'll see. We might actually end up with Amen at the end so I dont wanna hate on him too hard but rn I prefer Ausar since he can shoot.
Yeah, but that's the problem. A lot of these top players just show up to the combine to say "hi" and take pictures and answer questions - they don't do the actual drills. BTW, with Amen, the plus he has over Ausar apparently is his ball-handling and court vision. He can be a PG/SG. If he succeeds at that, you could see him maybe fitting in with the Rockets assuming he ends up as good as he's made out to be.
The Twins have great athletic skills but have exceptionally raw basketball skills. Given that both Twins are likely two long years of development in the G League from being in an NBA starting rotation, I do not see how one can say that one Twin is better than the other. The Twins lack of shot is a huge red flag. To be successful in the NBA, SGs need to shoot. See Ben Simmons. Not only do SGs need to shoot; they need to hit 3s at a reasonable clip. Is shooting 3s a learnable skill? Maybe yes. Maybe no. See Ben Simmons.
Amen is a point guard in the NBA, IMO, and Ausar is a small forward. I don't see either of them as shooting guards. You're underrating their basketball skills. All the scouts and analysts I've heard from have said that Amen already has good ball-handling skills, good finishing skills around the rim, and possibly the best passing/playmaking skills in this draft class. Ausar's jump shot is coming along and it's pretty easy to project him as a guy that will shoot well in the NBA based on his work ethic, mechanics, and the improvement he has shown. Scouts also report he has very good defensive skills right now and is solid on that side of the ball with good instincts and plenty of athleticism to switch 1-4. Also, a counterpoint: Until this year, Ben Simmons has been a very good basketball player when he's been on the court. Certainly better than anyone on the Rockets' current roster. He was nearly averaging a triple-double his first couple years in the league. The major problems with him have been laziness, bad attitude, and injuries, not his lack of a jump shot. Who knows what he could have become if he actually cared about basketball and was willing to work hard, play well with his teammates, and stay on the court. By contrast, the Thompson twins are widely regarded as having excellent character and a strong drive to be great NBA players. You can google "Thompson twins article" and find a number of glowing stories about how hard they're working and how much they want to succeed. Ben Simmons, by contrast, had a lot of concerns about his character mentioned in the run up to his draft. Final counterpoint: There have been plenty of great point guards who were not good shooters. I think about guys like Rajon Rondo, Andre Miller, Rod Strickland.
You are right and these are indeed the same reservations I have with Amen. However I am a lot more confident in Ausar's shot and work ethic as you can see the progress he has made since last year in OTE. Ausar shot like 20 threes in 3 games during the OTE playoffs and was OTE MVP. This is why I like Ausar a lot more he has a history of being able to improve his J so you figure he can refine it even more in the NBA.
Well to be fair Ben Simmons is an anomaly and only became a star player thanks to being Lebron's protege and playing on a team with Embiid. If he played anywhere else he would have been jeered at for not being able to shoot like Lonzo Ball. I know Ausar has really good work ethic but I'm not so sure about Amen, dude is still the same player he was as a 19 yr old. Everyone know his major weakness is shooting but unlike his twin bro Amen hasnt really shown any development in that area. While players like Rondo and Rod Strickland turned out to be good players, they arent worth a top 10 lotto pick imo. Rondo for example wouldnt be highly regarded if he was gonna come to a team without a HOF big 3. So if Amen cant shoot, he is a waste of a pick imo esp with other guys on the board like Walker, Taylor, Black etc
What I'm saying is that his floor is higher than some are willing to admit, and it's very possible to be a valuable point guard, even a multiple-time all-star, even if you don't have a jump shot. But if he does develop a jump shot, he could become an MVP-contender type of player with his insane athleticism. As I've said before, I go back and forth on the twins. I do think Ausar is more likely to be a solid shooter, and he's currently the better defender. However, Ausar was not so great at finishing around the rim, against, as you yourself have pointed out, not the best competition. Amen absolutely annihilated defenses around the rim. 66% two point percentage! And that includes mid-range jumpers! He was as close to automatic in the paint as you can be. Ausar was right around 50% on 2P shots, IIRC.
None of which is worth a top five draft pick. Is it possible that the Twins learn how to shoot? Yes, but there is a non-zero chance they will not. And you have to add development time to their careers before they become NBA rotational players.
Right, but again, I'm not saying they won't develop a shot. Obviously if you're taking these guys top 5, you're doing it for the upside and the chance they have to be superstars if they do learn to shoot. But it helps their floor, or the minimum reasonable value you can expect to get from them if things don't work out, if you can envision them as valuable players even without being able to shoot. And I definitely think you can envision that, and there are plenty of examples of guards who were very good without being shooters. That's what I'm saying when I reference these kinds of players--that the floor isn't as bad as it's been made out to be, and the ceiling is "superstar, top 5 in the league".
If Rajon Rondo was 6'7 with a 40 inch vert and elite agility he'd probably go top 5. It kinda already happened when Ben Simmons went #1. And don't tell me he's only an All Star, All Defense player because of Embiid. Maybe the best season of his career was when Embiid didn't play a single minute.
