Just seems like yesterday when the Diamondbacks went win now with a nice young core by adding two top 30 pitchers (one was likely top 2 or 3) with only giving up a defensive player, prospects, and money. Now, they need almost everyone to perform better than expected and have great health to have likely one last shot at playoffs before years of suckage. Makes you wonder if there is a correlation between good farm systems and depth. Glad we never have these won now discussions.
**BUMP** Not really sure where else to put this, but I was hoping we could start a general discussion of trade targets. Everyone seems to agree that the Astros will be buyers at the trade deadline (or sooner, as with Kazmir a few years ago). Who would you like to see the Astros target and why? I am hoping that Quintana's season lowers his price and a change of scenery evens out his performance. He profiles as a perfect #3 in our rotation, this season's results excluded. Chris Archer was my favorite trade target, but the Rays are one of the few teams with a top 10 offense and a top 10 pitching staff. With their tight payroll and Archer being reasonably cost-controlled for the next few years, I just don't see the motivation for Tampa Bay to deal him. I personally like Garrett Cole or Sonny Gray for our pitching staff... I think Gray is going to be cheaper in terms of prospects cost. The real reason I wanted to start this discussion is Marcel Ozuna. The Marlins have a bad farm system and are definitely (perpetually) going to be sellers at the trade deadline. I would love to add him to our lineup. I know we should focus on the staff, but what would it take to get Ozuna from the Marlins?
Here's the BSPN article that got my mind moving in this direction... http://bbs.clutchfans.net/index.php?threads/astros-trade-option-s.281983/ Spoiler: INSIDER Tuesday, May 30, 2017 Updated: May 31, 9:24 AM ET Trade-deadline tiers: Who's buying? And who's selling? By Bradford Doolittle Believe it or not, we're creeping up on the one-third mark of the big-league season, with Wednesday's games officially marking the end of the second month of the 2017 campaign. Memorial Day is a fairly significant one on the baseball calendar, because this is when a number of decision-makers around the league start to look at their teams with a more critical eye. Dismissing trends as being too early becomes more difficult. With the results piling up, preseason expectations are trumped by reality and teams start positioning themselves to consolidate or pivot. With the end of another month, it's time for another round of checkups across baseball, repeating the exercise I began last month. However, with the trade deadline just two months away, we're going to change things up a tad. We're still displaying the updated forecasts and playoff odds for each team and how they've changed during May. And we're grouping teams a little differently by putting more emphasis on their respective buy, hold and sell statuses. We've put the teams into five tiers: ready to buy, probable buyers, still holding, probable sellers and open for business. The groupings have all been determined by each team's probability to make the postseason, according to FiveThirtyEight. The ranking noted for each team reflects its current standing in my power rating system, and teams are listed in order by that ranking within each group. Ready to buy 1. Los Angeles Dodgers Rev. forecast: 105.0 wins | Monthly change: 11.3 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 94 percent | Monthly change: 19 percent Cody Bellinger's arrival gives the Dodgers awesome star power atop a roster that already featured Corey Seager, Clayton Kershaw and Kenley Jansen. But the rise of the Dodgers continues largely because of the depth built up by general manager Andrew Friedman. With injury question marks in the rotation and a concerning lack of power from Adrian Gonzalez, Friedman might need to augment that depth even more. 2. Houston Astros Rev. forecast: 102.1 wins | Monthly change: 8.7 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 97 percent | Monthly change: 12 percent Before the season, the only thing it appeared Houston lacked was a No. 2 starter to slot behind Dallas Keuchel. However, Lance McCullers Jr. has emerged as one of the breakout pitchers in the game. Now the need shifts toward the end of the rotation, which in this year's trade market should be a relatively easy trade piece to add. 3. Washington Nationals Rev. forecast: 99.7 wins | Monthly change: 2.8 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 92 percent | Monthly change: 4 percent The Nationals' title hopes are likely to hinge on Mike Rizzo's ability to add a lockdown reliever or two over the next couple of months. That pitcher doesn't necessarily have to be a closer since the Nationals have some quality bullpen arms already on the roster. They just don't have enough of them. Probable buyers 4. New York Yankees Rev. forecast: 99.4 wins | Monthly change: 6.2 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 62 percent | Monthly change: 6 percent If Greg Bird doesn't get it going once he gets back from the disabled list, the Yankees could need another bat at first base. They'll almost certainly need another starter and perhaps a bullpen arm, as well, if Aroldis Chapman's shoulder problems linger. Still, these are first-world problems for a Yankees squad that is positioned for the long haul. 5. Arizona Diamondbacks Rev. forecast: 94.3 wins | Monthly change: 6.6 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 50 percent | Monthly change: 8 percent The Diamondbacks' early success should preclude any salary dump, unless Arizona is bowled over by an offer for expensive but excellent starter Zack Greinke. Still, with limited financial flexibility, the D-backs will probably try to improve at the margins as long as they remain in contention. 6. Colorado Rockies Rev. forecast: 93.4 wins | Monthly change: 16.7 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 68 percent | Monthly change: 34 percent The Rockies are probably better positioned to make a splashy addition than the D-backs but might not have to if the second and third tiers of the National League don't start playing themselves into wild-card contention. Getting David Dahl and Jon Gray back healthy might be the only in-season upgrades Colorado needs to make. 8. Boston Red Sox Rev. forecast: 88.3 wins | Monthly change: 5.7 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 56 percent | Monthly change: 0 percent The picture for the Red Sox should be much clearer in two or three weeks. With David Price back, Boston's rotation is as intact as it's going to be with Steven Wright out for the season. Now we, and the Red Sox, can focus on a suddenly fragile infield situation. 11. Cleveland Indians Rev. forecast: 85.6 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.6 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 75 percent | Monthly change: 0 percent With the game's best bullpen, an offense that should be strong once all its component parts start working at the same time and ace Corey Kluber about to return from the DL, no team might be better positioned to benefit from a splashy, in-season pickup of another starting pitcher. 12. Chicago Cubs Rev. forecast: 84.9 wins | Monthly change: minus-10.6 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 68 percent | Monthly change: minus-18 percent I, like many, keep waiting on the Cubs to get on a two- or three-week roll that will re-establish their dominance over the NL Central. Now that we're past Memorial Day and the Cubs have face-planted on their current West Coast swing, it's worrisome. And not the kind of worry that any one trade figures to fix. However, we've known all along that the Cubs would need to add a starter and probably a reliever, too, and that hasn't changed.
Spoiler: INSIDER, cont. On the fence 7. Tampa Bay Rays Rev. forecast: 88.4 wins | Monthly change: 4.4 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 38 percent | Monthly change: 11 percent In my rating system, the Rays join the Dodgers and Astros as the only teams in the top 10 in run production and run prevention. The position players have been as good as anybody's, and, even if they regress as a group at the plate, the pitching should pick up that slack with regression in the other direction. The Rays can deal a starter to plug any specific hole or to shore up their depth. Tampa Bay is well positioned for a full-season run at a postseason slot. 9. Milwaukee Brewers Rev. forecast: 87.9 wins | Monthly change: 7.1 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 27 percent | Monthly change: 11 percent If it were just on the position players, the surprising Brewers would be well-served to keep riding what they have. But the pitching has overachieved. Nevertheless, if Junior Guerra's return keeps the beat for the rotation, a month from now, the Brewers might be buyers, at least for lower-cost pitchers. One way or another, Milwaukee could use some clarification on their July plan this month. The happy outcome would be another strong month. 10. Chicago White Sox Rev. forecast: 87.3 wins | Monthly change: 8.6 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 16 percent | Monthly change: minus-2 percent The White Sox would have to go on a torrid streak to go from the sell mode they've been in since December to the buy mode. But their underlying metrics keep nudging in the right direction. And don't forget, the prospects Chicago added this winter, such as Lucas Giolito (who threw a no-hitter last week) and Yoan Moncada, are going to help the Sox sooner than later. 13. Texas Rangers Rev. forecast: 84.8 wins | Monthly change: 0.0 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 19 percent | Monthly change: 5 percent The Texas bullpen has been arguably the worst in the majors, a big reason why Texas has been baseball's streakiest team. The Astros are running away with the AL West, but the Rangers need to find some help for Matt Bush and company to mount a wild-card push. 14. New York Mets Rev. forecast: 82.6 wins | Monthly change: 2.5 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 20 percent | Monthly change: minus-10 percent The only trade the Mets need to make is bad health for good health. 16. Toronto Blue Jays Rev. forecast: 81.7 wins | Monthly change: 6.8 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 26 percent | Monthly change: 15 percent The Blue Jays have all their big bats back for the time being and are putting up scores reminiscent of their run of success in the AL East the past few years. A good June could have Toronto looking to patch holes for a postseason push. A bad June could point toward a reset. But the fact there is still a range of possibilities that wide shows how far Toronto has come since its disastrous early season. 17. Minnesota Twins Rev. forecast: 80.5 wins | Monthly change: 2.4 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 22 percent | Monthly change: 1 percent You want to believe, but the Twins have been outscored on the season and, despite leading the AL Central, rank just third in the division by my power rating. It still seems more likely that the Twins will be selling in late July rather than buying. 18. Detroit Tigers Rev. forecast: 78.6 wins | Monthly change: minus-1.1 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 22 percent | Monthly change: minus-12 percent The Tigers are hanging within sniffing distance in the tepid AL Central. Yet Detroit has shown little to convince Al Avila that his winter notion of resetting the roster was the wrong one. 19. St. Louis Cardinals Rev. forecast: 78.5 wins | Monthly change: minus-0.2 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 34 percent | Monthly change: 4 percent It has been a strange season for the Redbirds, who have gotten excellent starting pitching but otherwise a whole myriad of disappointments. Things should get better if some of St. Louis' underachievers move closer to their expected rates of production. But when you're sending a guy like Randal Grichuk to high-A, that's a bad sign for the construction of this club. 20. Baltimore Orioles Rev. forecast: 78.4 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.0 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 26 percent | Monthly change: minus-12 percent At the very least, the Orioles can hope Manny Machado hits for a lot more going forward than he has put up to this point. Baltimore also desperately needs Kevin Gausman to pick things up. If those two things happen, Baltimore should be able to muddle along until Zach Britton gets back later this summer. 21. Seattle Mariners Rev. forecast: 72.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-13.3 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 20 percent | Monthly change: minus-13 percent The Mariners could turn into major sellers by this time next month, or they could start to resemble the team we thought they'd be before the season if Felix Hernandez and the rest of the rotation can return to action and productivity. Seattle benefits from the lackluster AL wild-card race, but their season could still slip away before their missing players get back on the field. 25. Pittsburgh Pirates Rev. forecast: 67.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-7.8 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 15 percent | Monthly change: minus-8 percent The Pirates are only 3½ games out of first in the NL Central. But they are also in last place and have been outscored by 34 runs. They still have a few weeks before suspended outfielder Starling Marte can return. It certainly doesn't look like a contending season for the Bucs, yet the league has kept them in the picture. Count Pittsburgh among the many on-the-fence teams around baseball looking for clarity this month.
Spoiler: INSIDER, cont. Probable sellers 15. Cincinnati Reds Rev. forecast: 82.4 wins | Monthly change: 7.1 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 8 percent | Monthly change: minus-1 percent The Reds had a solid month overall in terms of improving their power rating, but those trends were headed in the wrong direction by month's end, and the pitching staff is starting to resemble last year's flammable unit. The good thing about having a rotation this bad is that you don't have to make a home run acquisition to receive a significant upgrade. The Reds need a hot month of hitting and a good month of relief pitching and, who knows, maybe the rotation can be upgraded, from within or without. 22. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim Rev. forecast: 72.4 wins | Monthly change: minus-5.0 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 14 percent | Monthly change: minus-10 percent Without Mike Trout, this offense will be dreadful for the next two months. That takes us up to the trade deadline, by which time the Angels should be out of the race. The big problem for the Angels is this: Even if they go into sell mode, is there anyone beyond Trout that would bring a system-stocking return? 23. Atlanta Braves Rev. forecast: 71.9 wins | Monthly change: minus-1.4 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 7 percent | Monthly change: minus-2 percent The Braves seem intent on winning as many games as they can this season. If Atlanta were to make a surprising wild-card push, the addition of Matt Adams could emerge as one of the best in-season moves by anyone as his play has softened the blow from the absence of franchise hitter Freddie Freeman. However, John Coppolella might need to pull off the same trick a couple of more times to boost his rotation if the Braves are to stay afloat. 29. San Francisco Giants Rev. forecast: 56.2 wins | Monthly change: minus-19.6 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 9 percent | Monthly change: minus-11 percent The Giants are similar to the Angels in that, because they are fairly old, expensive and built to win this season, the utility of a sell-off for them seems limited. Rather than looking to rebuild, you could see San Francisco behaving like a buyer. The hope would be to unearth a veteran hitter with multiple years left on his deal, not so much to salvage this season, but to position themselves for 2018. The unfortunate thing is that the Giants' best selling point in a trade might be a willingness to absorb money. And it's not clear they're in position to do that. Open for business 24. Miami Marlins Rev. forecast: 71.1 wins | Monthly change: minus-8.5 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 5 percent | Monthly change: minus-20 percent The Marlins' collapse could make them an interesting seller if they decide their minor league system needs an influx of depth and talent. Marcell Ozuna and Dee Gordon could make interesting trade pieces from the position players. Reliever Brad Ziegler would draw interest as well if he can put together a good month. Overshadowing all of this is the Marlins' in-limbo ownership situation. Is there anyone who will actually be able to sanction a sell-off by the end of July? 26. Oakland Athletics Rev. forecast: 67.1 wins | Monthly change: minus-5.7 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 4 percent | Monthly change: minus-3 percent As ESPN's Buster Olney has pointed out, Sonny Gray's re-emergence as a No. 1 starter would change the trade market for the next couple of months. Another A's pitcher to watch is veteran reliever Ryan Madson, who has been lights-out. And Yonder Alonso is a 30-year-old, slick-fielding first baseman who has already hit five more homers than his previous season-high. Seems like a classic sell-high candidate. 27. Philadelphia Phillies Rev. forecast: 64.5 wins | Monthly change: minus-13.2 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: zero percent | Monthly change: minus-11 percent The Phillies' hopes of being a surprising contender have been torpedoed by bad starts from cornerstone hitters Odubel Herrera and Maikel Franco. That's probably for the best for Philadelphia, for which better days lie ahead. The Phillies can safely shop Jeremy Hellickson and see if they can get some kind of return for reliever Pat Neshek. 28. Kansas City Royals Rev. forecast: 58.3 wins | Monthly change: minus-3.5 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 3 percent | Monthly change: zero percent It's time to pull the plug on a group that brought winning baseball back to Kansas City. It's sad, but that's baseball. The Royals needed big seasons from Jorge Soler and Alex Gordon. Instead, when they've played, their combined OPS is lower than that of Freddie Freeman or Mike Trout. But, still, the final blow was the loss of Danny Duffy for six to eight weeks with an oblique strain. It's time to build for 2018 and beyond, and the Royals should bring back solid talent for the likes of Lorenzo Cain, Mike Moustakas and Eric Hosmer. 30. San Diego Padres Rev. forecast: 50.7 wins | Monthly change: minus-9.3 FiveThirtyEight playoff odds: 0 percent | Monthly change: minus-4 percent Lefty reliever Brad Hand is a solid trade chip. Starter Trevor Cahill could be one, too, if he proves his shoulder is sound. Beyond that, the pickings are slim.
Ozuna and Alonso would be the top two guys among position players I think will be reasonably available at deadline. Quintana...he's looking like a fallback option now.
When talking about potential trade targets for the Astros earlier today, Jim Duquette and Matt Diaz brought up Ervin Santana. I hadn't really thought about him as a potential target, and I didn't think the Twins were going to be sellers given their strong start to the season. However, if they continue to fall back in the division, and Cleveland continues to play well, I can see them perhaps trying to improve their farm system via trade. Santana would be sick in this lineup, and a Keuchel-Santana-McCullers rotation in the playoffs would be sexy as hell.
The only thing that concerns me about Santana is that I've read a lot of talk about how his current trajectory isn't sustainable. His peripheral stats point to him being extremely lucky in terms of BABIP and how many runners he's stranded. That being said, I think we're far enough into the year where maybe he just is what he is, peripherals be damned. I definitely wouldn't hate it if he started game 3 of a playoff series for us.
What would Ozuna cost, in your opinion? Considering what the Nats paid for Eaton, I'm terrified of what the Marlins would ask for... wouldn't they definitely want Mates back? As for Yonder, I would love him @ first base... but could we get a Gray/Alonso package without sacrificing a huge chunk of our farm system?
There really is no such thing as peripherals be damned, that's why they are so popular. Less than 2 to 1 K/BB, and a staggeringly low .145 BABIP. Regression is gonna hit him, and it's gonna hit hard. I wouldn't want him in my rotation when that happens.
Without looking too closely, I think he would project to about 6 WAR over 2.5 years. Not looking too closely at money as not likely to be that big a deal. I think main prospects probably need to project to about 7 WAR. My guess would be something like Fisher (maybe Reed), Paulino, and a couple of other prospects (Stubbs?). Probably need to sweeten it with depth. Martes, Tucker, and Perez are probably too highly rated to be included.
Cole, Quintana, Gray, and Cueto are the 4 guys I think Houston will zero in on. I'll be very surprised if the Rays sell, and if they do it'll be Cobb or Odorizzi they trade, not Archer. No other teams that will likely sell have any pitchers that would serve as a meaningful upgrade over Morton/McHugh/Musgrove/Fiers except the Rangers, who will probably trade Darvish, but not to the Astros. It would be good if Minnesota and Toronto fell out of contention. Santana would make some sense, and if Toronto decides to rebuild they have several SP who could help Houston, especially Stroman.
Bumgardner and Verlander. The Giants are struggling and the Tigers are as well. I feel like both of those teams could be sellers. If either of those become available, I'd trade our best minor league chips for one. Either of them would make us instant favorites.
Absolutely 0% chance the Giants trade Bumgarner. He's set to make $12,000,000 each of the next 2 seasons, before he's an UFA in 2020. That's an absolute STEAL, and unless we're willing to throw in Bregman/McCullers or something to that effect, I don't even think the Giants pick up the phone.
0% chance of Giants trading Bumgardner. Verlander would be an interesting target if Detroit falls out of it. Tigers would need to eat some money for Houston to be able to do it.
Hypotheticals: Astros get: SP Justin Verlander OF JD Martinez RP Justin Wilson $25M Tigers get: OF Kyle Tucker SP Francis Martes SP Joe Musgrove OF Teoscar Hernandez IF Colin Moran SP Hector Perez Astros get: SP Gerrit Cole Pirates get: OF Kyle Tucker SP Francis Martes SP Jorge Alcala Astros get: SP Johnny Cueto PTBNL (determined by Cueto's decision to opt out) Giants get: SP Franklin Perez SP David Paulino Astros get: SP Jose Quintana White Sox get: SP Francis Martes SP Joe Musgrove SP Franklin Perez OF Daz Cameron Astros get: SP Sonny Gray OF Khris Davis RP Sean Doolittle A's get: SP Francis Martes OF Teoscar Hernandez 1B AJ Reed SP Trent Thornton RP Reymin Guduan C Jake Rogers Astros get: SP Marcus Stroman Blue Jays get: SP Francis Martes OF Derek Fisher SP Franklin Perez