Astros Trade option(s)

Spoiler: Heyman

 

They changed the rules. Used to be 1 year from the draft (or signing, don't remember), hence the use of the PTBNL, now until the end of the WS they cannot be included in a trade in any form.

 

Nope. Completely ineligible to be traded until after the world series. The rule changed.

 

Saw something similar this weekend with a different spin. Basically, Marlins and teams interested in Realmuto are far apart on offers, and the Marlins expect there will be a better market this offseason when there will be more buyers. If some team gets desparate in next week, I see Realmuto getting dealt. By some team, I mostly mean Washington as they seem to be the team most likely to win a division, have prospects that Marlins likely covet, and are getting less than nothing from the catcher spot. Red Sox, Rockies, Brewers, and A's could also use Realmuto, but either are not prospect rich or are most likely a wild card team or out of playoffs.

 

I'm willing to give up quite a bit to trade for him. He has incredible talent, is in his prime, and plays a premium position which we're thin on. By the time the Marlins' window of contention opens, he'll be past his prime. I would do it if I were the GM. Alvarez or Tucker.

 

Glad you not the GM then lol....no offense, I just don't want two years of Realmuto for 7 of Tucker/Alvarez

 

Potential of Tucker and Alvarez. You might get 7 years of .230-.265 average. That's why they are prospects.
Not everyone works out like Bregman.
I'm sure Tucker will be an awesome player....but it's all just promise right now.
We can all name many sure things that didn't make it.

Yes...If Tucker hits .325 for 7 years averaging 30 hr's....why would you ever trade him?

Trades hurt....Bregman for Sale last year would have been great for both sides. Both players are exceptional and both are under team control. Might not have won the world series though if we made that trade.

 

Keeping Realmuto makes no sense for MIA. He’s 27 and is under control for 2 more seasons. Would make sense if he were 24 or so, but catchers deteriorate so quickly. They need to hit after the busted Yelich return.

 

https://www.mlb.com/astros/news/who...al-playoff-rotation/c-286974060?tid=218325368

MacT’s mailbag has some comments on deadline plans. Essentially catcher and reliever are the two areas they’re looking at.

If they do add a catcher, it gets tough to find a match outside of Realmuto. I’ve mentioned Omar Narvaez from the White Sox as a player I wouldn’t mind them targeting. Mesoraco, Chirinos, Plawecki, and Elias Diaz are lesser/riskier options. Wilson Ramos and Francisco Cervelli would make sense, but they’re both hurt.

If they could get Miami to bite on a “quantity” deal (5+ prospects that doesn’t include Tucker/Whitley/Alvarez), a Realmuto/Dietrich/reliever package would really round out Houston’s roster both this season and next.

 

Here's a thought: Miami would probably love to dump Starlin Castro's big contract and flip him for prospects, and I know the Brewers would like help at 2B. So how about a three-team trade? Somewhere I read last offseason that the Marlins should flip both Realmuto and Castro in a three-team deal (obviously did not happen) but here's my idea.

HOU Gets:
C JT Realmuto
LHP Adam Conley

MIL Gets:
2B Starlin Castro
RHP Ken Giles

MIA Gets:
RHP JB Bukauskas
RHP Rogelio Armenteros
2B Tony Kemp
OF Gilberto Celestino
SS Freudis Nova
C Garrett Stubbs
OF Brett Phillips (from MIL, he's blocked there)
And another prospect or two the Brewers are willing to part with.

Not too familiar with the Brewers' farm, but since they did trade with the Marlins recenty (Yelich) I'd imagine there'd be some familiarity. I know the Brewers have been linked to Dozier, but if I was a Brewers fan I'd prefer Castro, since he's younger, is having a better season, and is not a rental (though the contract could be an issue). They also need bullpen help, and Giles can do that. We get rid of him and send him to the other league. He has good stuff, just has not been particularly sharp lately, and I think his time in Houston is done. A change in scenery could be just the trick.

From our side, Celestino and Nova should be ready around the time the Marlins' window opens. Stubbs gives them a catching prospect, and Bukauskas and Armenteros more pitching. Kemp gets everyday playing time at 2B. I know that will be tough to do, but 2B is his natural (and best) position and he's blocked over here. Getting Realmuto is worth it. Kemp gives them an MLB-ready player, and someone to build around. Sorry but with Springer and Reddick entrenched, and with Tucker, Alvarez (and possibly a dark horse or two) in the waiting, it would be best for Kemp he goes somewhere where he gets more playing time. I really like having him in our lineup, but sadly I can't really see him as a big part of our future.

 

That’s more than it would take on the Astros part. Tony Kemp has earned a spot as a bench player for years to come (something the Astros have struggled to find in the rebuild and something they desperately needed)

Bukauskas OR Armenteros
Celestino OR Nova
Stubbs

Would get it done on the Astros, if subtracting the Brewers involvement a choice or two of JD Davis, Reed, Fisher, Marisnick (loggam)

 

I also threw in Conley as an extra LHRP, which may drive up the price. Was looking for feedback, had trouble thinking of how to work out a potential 3-team blockbuster, Subtracting Kemp and Nova should still be plenty. I also have Fisher (plus Martes, Paulino and maybe one other guy) being packaged to BAL in a separate fantasy deal for Britton, hence his unavailability. Davis, Reed, and White will be tough to send to MIA (or BAL), as they have Bour and Mancini, For 3B, the O's top prospect plays that, though the Marlins could take White or Davis (hate to lose the latter, but it's worth it for Realmuto). Marisnick seems to have the least trade value, but I bet the organization keeps him as the 4th OF, even over Straw (which I can see why).

 

Not a bad idea but kind of unnecessary imho. Castro only has $12M left on his contract after this season, and he’s still a decent player. He may even be worth his contract depending on how he finishes the year. So adding him and turning it into a 3 way trade way overly complicates things. Miami can likely find a taker for him separately.

Stubbs, Armenteros, and Kemp are 2nd or 3rd tier prospects that don’t have much value. They’re the type of prospects added after a deal has pretty much been agreed on just to get it over the finish line, whether because of roster needs or because a team really likes the player for some odd reason.

So the trade is really Realmuto and Conley for Giles, Bukauskas, Celestino, and Nova. That’s a little oo light to me (although admittedly I don’t see Other teams valuing Giles highly enough for a trade to make sense; Miami May see him as still very valuable and if so this hypothetical makes a lot more sense). If Miami accepts a deal without an mlb top 50 prospect coming back (which I consider highly unlikely), they’re going to want at least 4 fringe top 100 value guys, all of whom are in full season ball if not in AA/AAA (short-season guys, like fringy guys, are usually sweeteners or guys thrown in at the end. Sub out Nova and Celestino for 2 of Martin, Paulino, Cionel Perez, P Sandoval, Davis, Fisher, Straw, and Arauz and I thing you’re there, depending on how Conley is valued.

 

Amazing these guys get paid to tweet this nonsense

 

I definitely think Miami wants a prospect with the typical value of a 50ish ranked prospect as a headliner. Washington's Kieboom may fit the bill here, but that's about it. Most of those guys seem to be on up and coming teams or teams with catchers. Not sure there is a team without a good catcher, likely to make playoffs with good chance to win division, that has 4 Top 100 guys ranked 50th-ish to 100th-ish (definitely not from Fangraphs last Top 131, but that may be a little dated).

 

Fairly obvious statement considering there's no one available that's worth either of these two

 

If the O's can't work something out with the rest of the system, okay then. We know Tucker's going nowhere, I'd put Col Perez and Martin really close to that level as well. In Luhnow I Trust.

 

If they seriously want a top 40 prospect for a rental with question marks then they can take their business elsewhere.

 

Wanting and getting are two entirely different things.