Astros Trade option(s)

I thought players on the 40-man roster couldn't be traded right now without first passing through waivers?
http://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3524

 

That's still better, and he's more versatile, than what they've been getting from those other 4 over the last months.

Ideally, Marwin continues finds a way to hit like an MVP candidate again... at a production level that is way ahead of his career norms, and stays in the OF (or as a super-sub in the infield).... or this is insurance that this last month represents a severe course correction back to his career numbers.

 

Ah, makes sense. Oops.

 

Looking ahead to the offseason, after adding Verlander, Houston probably won't have much if any money to spend, and therefore will probably not be involved with any free agents. They will have needs at DH, lefty reliever, and possibly LF. I think they have enough upside young players to fill LF and DH internally; here's the list of candidates:

Fisher - very likely to be the LF
Davis - probably the front runner for DH
Moran
White
Reed
Kemp
P Tucker
Kemmer
Martin
K Tucker
Stassi - would the backup C and allow Gattis to be the full time DH
Centeno
Stubbs
Singleton

That would leave LH RP as the only need. We know they've already had deep discussions with Baltimore on Britton that included Moran as a significant piece, and I don't see why they wouldn't follow up on that. Moran, Martin, and Deetz for Britton?

That'd give an opening day roster of:

CF Springer
3B Bregman
2B Altuve
SS Correa
1B Gurriel
RF Reddick
DH Gattis
C McCann
LF Fisher

Bench: Marwin, Marisnick, Davis/Stassi

Rotation: Keuchel, Verlander, McCullers, McHugh, Morton

Bullpen: Peacock, Musgrove, Martes, Devenski, Harris, Britton, Giles, TBD*

*the 25th spot could be either keeping a 13th position player (likely Stassi or Davis) or a pitcher from a long list of Sipp, Fiers, Feliz, Hoyt, Rodgers, Paulino, Gustave, Guduan, McCurry, Ferrell, Valdez, Deetz, Armenteros, Comer, or a cheap free agent.

 

I think the Astros will have some short term money to spend, in other words someone like Beltran this season or Lind. A veteran that can on occasion play the field and also DH at a solid clip on a short contract. Otherwise I could see Moran land the DH job.

Also the Astros have a glut in their rotation. They are currently running out 6 starters and Martes is going to be in the rotation next season and Whitley is going to be ready faster than most think. It is likely they deal a starter or two for either a bat or bullpen arm. They have a lot of internal bullpen options so I think it isn't a priority necessary.

Most likely the teams needs will not be known until the season is underway. I think Fisher gets the LF job, but I do think they try to add an outfielder in FA in the bargain bin or through trade.

 

Agree on the rotation #'s right now (Keuchel, LMJ, McHugh, Morton, Verlander, Peacock). But with the need for 6+ starters in the majors, I think it's worth considering going with 7ish for this season and then trading Morton to someone as a rental at the deadline if we have no injuries + Martes has panned out. The level of injury risk / age (the entire top 5 is at risk) / general SP needs across the league would make me hesitant to move anyone before the season unless a spectacular offer presents itself. Peacock's and Martes's abilities to function out of the pen will allow this to work.

Arb #'s make me think it'll have to be a great deal for them to spend on a veteran. I'd rather see Moran, White, Reed, Davis, Fisher battle for the open roles vacated by Beltran and Maybin.

Agree on the last point--could easily see a bargain bin OF joining as insurance against what Fisher has been doing lately. Werth or Chris Young (so he stops killing us), though they platoon the wrong way for this lineup. Perhaps Seth Smith?

 

I think we target Britton for sure in the off season, but Moran won't be enough. And I'm ok with addin more prospects to get him.

I agree with nook about moving a starting pitcher. I think we target enough old bat like Beltran. Although, the market isn't there in free agency. Curious if there is an expiring vet with a bat out there on a team in need of an innings eater like mchugh.

 

Why target Britton?

 

Besides the fact we've had reported interest, why not target an elite left handed reliever?

I understand he's a closer and Giles is playing great but lhrp is our only real need imo.

That tandem would be absolutely amazing.

 

I think the worry is the injury history, which seems to still be a factor now. I'd be wary on Britton without detailed and fully medical, and I'd still want my risk limited either in dollars or years

 

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't he entering his last year of arbitration? Isn't next year the only year left until he's a free agent?

I imagine risk limitation would come in the form of lesser prospect return.

 

Good point, if we make a trade post-arbitration as a 1 year rental.

 

Free agents available this offseason that Houston might target:

DH:
Alonso
Duda
Lind
Santana
Frazier

LF:
Maybin
Gonzalez

LHRP:
McGee
Watson

 

I'm not convinced the Astros need a DH specialist. Carlos Beltran has been poor and it is still the best offense in the league. Between Moran, Marwin, Gattis, and rest days I don't see why they can't just play musical chairs and use that saved money on Verlander, a lefty reliever, and potential deadline deal.

 

Oh I agree. If I'm GM I let Davis, Moran, White, and Reed compete in spring to be DH. Only move I make in the offseason is to trade for an elite left handed reliever. If the DH (and/or LF) struggles, it can be addressed at the deadline.

 

2 off the wall offseason trade ideas:

Astros get:
OF Christian Yellich

Marlins get:
SP Francis Martes
OF Derek Fisher
SP Hector Perez
SP Mike Fiers
RP Riley Ferrell

Astros get a star OF under cheap control through 2021. Marlins get the multiple pieces they need without having to do a total rebuild. Fiers gives them some of the rotation depth they desperately need. Not sure if Martes/Fisher is enough to headline a trade for Yellich, but if it requires Tucker or Whitley it defeats the purpose for Houston.

Astros get:
SP Chris Archer

Rays get:
SP Dallas Keuchel
SP Francis Martes
1B AJ Reed
SP Jorge Alcala
RP James Hoyt

Astros get another proven ToR SP under cheap long term control, and they get something for Keuchel before he leaves via free agency. Rays get multiple long term holes filled by trading Archer without making their 2018 roster worse, plus they know they can trade Keuchel at the deadline if they're out of it and get even more long term pieces. This would never happen but if I were GM of either team I'd consider it.

 

Rays won't trade for Keuchel.

 

You're very likely right. But the idea is that Tampa could trade Archer to build the roster they need in order to compete with the Sox and Yanks, without taking a dive in the near term (and the accompanying pr hit). The more I think about it, the more I think the Rays would probably need a better prospect haul in order to consider something like that (like subbing Whitley for Martes), which would/should make it a non-starter for Houston.

 

Your first trade is reasonable, Yellich+Aballer or 2