How many rotations in general have more than 1 or 2 guys who can be trusted to reach 7? The game is changing, and shifting towards the bullpen. That's why I think having Peacock in the pen would be so helpful. Peacock, Devo and Feliz can alternate being bridge guys to Gregerson (or preferably someone we trade for), Harris and Giles. I would welcome Quintana (or someone better, like DeGrom) if we didn't trade Martes or Tucker...but really I think our bigger need is a shutdown pen arm. If we are able to give up mid-tier prospects like Daz Cameron and JD Davis and get an elite bullpen arm...that might be more helpful than an innings eater like Sonny Gray.
Feels like Hinch has slowly been bringing him back into more important situations. I think he's been hoping to build his confidence back up, and it feels like he'll eventually have the 7th and 8th on some nights. That said, he's not as good a guy to bring in with runners on as others due to others having a much higher K rate consistently. So I wouldn't expect the inherited runners #'s to change too much--you'd rather have a high K guy come in typically, assuming both players are pretty good.
I guess I meant, he'll be pitching 7/8 in close-lead games more often, but still not coming in with runners on. Feels like he's been mostly going 7/8/9 in games where other parts of the pen are taxed, the team is behind, or the team is in a blowout win scenario.
Things I would not have expected to hear at the beginning of the season. I do think the idea of Peacock and Devenski in the pen for the playoffs (with Morton throwing flames a star well) is enticing.
This is the conclusion I was pointing to. As you say, the game is changing. With that in mind, thinking in terms of Starter, Relief Guy, #1 #2 #5, Closer, ect... are becoming less meaningful. What is more meaningful, or perhaps helpful is just going after the best arm(s) available, regardless of their designation or label.
I'm not sure there are any. I think only two pitchers are averaging over 7 innings a game. My best guess is that there are probably 8-15 pitchers that that finish 7 innings half the time.
Hinch, and the coaching staff, has shown a decent ability to rehabilitate a struggling bullpen pitcher in this sort of fashion. Giles went through his struggles last year (along with Neshek and Harris at times). My biggest concern with Gregerson was that he may have been hiding an injury... but his stuff looked great last night. Confidence is a powerful thing.
You're asking the wrong question, though. Since Keuchel went down (14 games), how many Astro starters have pitched into the seventh inning? The answer is three. How many didn't make it to the 6th inning? Four. THAT'S what kills your pen. So it's not about having 1-3 specific *guys* that can pitch longer - it's about having 2-3 starts/week that have the potential to go 7+. Even if DK and McCullers were healthy, they're both watched closely and McCullers, I'm pretty sure, is on a pitch count. So outside of Fiers (right now), no one else on this rotation seems capable of pushing it into the 7th inning to pick up any slack. To me, that's the concern.
It's a concern now considering that Devo is getting over-worked and we have guys like Dayan Diaz pitching the 9th of close games. With this rotation: Keuchel McCullers Morton McHugh Martes That allows Peacock and Fiers to go to the bullpen. My point is we shouldn't stress about guys like Morton or Martes not going more than 5 if they are pitching 5 solid innings. If we have the arms in the pen to deal with it, that's the way the game is going anyway. The problem now is that all our pen guys are in the rotation.
The score was 8-4. We're going to have to disagree on our definition of "close". Giles was warming up... and could have been brought in for the last batter as at that point it was technically a save situation, but Hinch figured Diaz could possibly get one more out (and there was no way Diaz could have given up the lead). Even though he's still making his fair share of appearances, Devo's work-load within games has decreased. Last time he went 2 innings was almost a month ago (5/30). Last time he threw more than 30 pitches in an appearance was 5/11. He's got a starters arm... people easily forget his multiple 4 inning extra inning stints to start the year (60 pitches for each of those), along with a 44 pitch outing vs Cleveland. On the one hand, its advantageous to the Astros to keep his arm stretched out... in case he's needed for an extra-inning game or to be extra-long releif. On the other hand, he's such a valuable weapon towards the end of games, it also makes sense to have him for the 7th or 8th. But in that case, with him only going for 1 or 1.1 innings, he should be able to go back to back days.
What you say about Devo is why I advocate we go after an elite bullpen arm instead of an ace. We are using Devo that way mostly because we no longer can trust Gregerson to fill that role. I think Devo is more valuable pitching like he did earlier in the year - 2 or 3 innings.
But Devo consistently pitching those types of games implies poor starting pitching. Ideally, starting pitching goes at least 5.... and you manage the bullpen accordingly. I agree that Gregerson is going to need to be better... as does Feliz and Sipp. They won't survive the whole year relying solely on Devo/Harris/Giles as the only bullpen arms you can trust.
No, it implies us using our pitching staff in a non-conventional way. One example would be having Devo on a set schedule, bridging someone like Martes or Morton a couple times a week.
Other than two really bad recent outings, Feliz has been very good and obviously flying under people's radar. Hinch obviously thinks a lot of him as he's been brought into high-leverage situations over and over again this year.
Just a reflection... if Colin McHugh is healthy in Spring Training, Brad Peacock is almost certainly DFA'd, and Fiers is probably traded to anyone looking for a pitcher. I think Fiers has made his case for the rotation -- this is big time performance when the staff needs it most. I wouldn't be opposed to keeping Martes up in a long relief/emergency starter mode, and see if he can become another flamethrowing relief option for this postseason
With Fiers, Peacock, and a couple of McCullers starts....the Astros are 3rd in the majors in SP WAR for June so far and 19th in innings pitched.
If they didn't DFA Peacock when he sucked, what makes you think they'd do it now? He's not going anywhere. It's a battle between him and Fiers for the #5 spot, assuming McHugh makes it back healthy and productive. The loser goes to the pen. The only way, IMO, that either Fiers or Peacock don't finish the regular season on this team is if they're part of a trade.
