This is exactly what is happening. Its data suppression and even with data suppression the numbers are rising. All the while these guys are burning through the phases. Any plan for next phase return lists no rise in cases for 14 days. So how are we moving forward when cant meet any plan? LOL People like to bash on china ( and rightly so) yet this is bad folks. we are all forced to move to the 'what can you do' f*uck it phase? Data suppress no test? sweep those 100k under the rug!
Schools would be perfect spreading zones for the disease. Most young people who probably won't even have symptoms silently transmitting it to all the old people.
this is still not a closed question with COVID19. Not clear yet from any study I’ve seen how much virus kids will shed. But if they’re shedding and sitting in a classroom all day, then I agree with you. I totally understand the pressure on schools. They are the real daycare of our at-work nation. It’s not totally safe, at all, and it will lead to deaths that maybe could be avoided. But I don’t see a very practical choice for fall. our political unity and our very government is too weak to do anything but what we’re doing now: region by region chaos and spread of disease. just wear a mask and try some distancing if you can and if you care.
This report that came out yesterday indicates the spread didn’t increase after the lockdown was lifted! https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.da...r-course-pandemic-JP-Morgan-study-claims.html
The practical choice is to continue with virtual instruction and spend this summer and early fall developing an effective online curriculum and training all teachers how to administer it. If that means school starts in late September or October 2020, so be it. Parents will have to adjust their schedules accordingly, but, as long as most businesses still embrace working from home, it is doable. Otherwise, a complete redesign of the American public school system is needed. (Smaller class sizes, not having all students on campus at once, eating lunches in the classroom instead of the cafeteria, etc.)
totally disagree. “Practical choice”? For whom? Do we even know if kids are able to spread the virus to others? I’ve seen reports they do not. And we know that the virus poses a minuscule risk to kids. If the teachers mask up and socially distance from other adults, the schools need to be open.
The vast majority of American jobs are not work-from-home jobs, especially when talking about people in lower income brackets who are going to be most impacted. This also doesn't consider all the kids who don't have broadband access or families who don't have access to multiple computers if they have multiple kids, etc.
while I agree with you to some degree and either of those options would obey common sense, (modulo Major’s good points), it will only happen in a smattering of locations. Do you sense the unity, patience and common sense in our culture for such things? I do not.
Good points, and school districts would need to figure out the best means of trying to accommodate those families. However, going right back to the way things were before March is not an option, either. The reality is there isn’t a solution that will please everyone.
Of course, I don’t sense the unity, patience and common sense in our culture for such things. We can’t even get everyone to wear a mask in public places to stop the spread of COVID-19 during a pandemic, the likes of which last occurred roughly 100 years ago. This fall, I suspect parents with the ability to homeschool their children will do so unless the school system is radically reformed by late August or early September. My five-year-old daughter is able to start Kindergarten in August, but, unless a vaccine is created in the next two or three months (highly unlikely), she will be held back a year because of COVID-19.
I think that sounds wise. And just to share my own personal perspective. Mrs. B-Bob and I have been able to largely work from home in the pandemic so far, but her (lab-based) research work is compelling her back into the workplace, with certain rules and mandatory masks. My work (teaching, in the fall) will probably compel me to go back into the college classroom to some degree or another. (We are really hoping she might be immune b/c she had some of the symptoms in March, but that could be wishful thinking.) Colleges are freaking out, a lot. If they go all online (like the Cal. State system), the fear is students will just sit it out and maybe do only community college for a year. A lot of private schools can't survive a year with, say, income cut in half. It's going to be pretty interesting! Anyway, to keep our jobs, we probably just don't have the real option to WFH as things move forward without a vaccine.
I’m on my second week back in the lab on a rotation basis. But it makes dealing with children much harder. Normally grandparents are a fallback but not when exposure is a concern so I have limited options. I am sure I will work in the lab more and more over the summer so by the time normal school year would be starting I will probably be going crazy. My kids hate the distance learning they have had to do to end this school year. I don’t know what the answer should be for Fall but I hope it is something better than the last 5 or so weeks.
This is a false eqiuvilancy, nobody will be going back to the way things were in march. People will be wearing mask and using a lot more sanitizer as well trying to use as much distance as possible. I am a teacher and you better believe I will be using a mask and paying attention to distance if at all possible. There will also be an uptick in home schooling.
It's not being kept hush-hush or supressed or anything like that. You'd hear about stores on the news before because there were fewer cases and so it was headline news when there was a small cluster of cases. Now that's commonplace, so it's not newsworthy. Contact tracing is generally about tracking down people who had extensive contact with someone who was infected, not every person that might have crossed paths with locations they were at. This is even more true now that we know length and depth of contact is important, and surfaces aren't a primary transmission source. You're just not going to get all the details on 1000 cases a day across Texas.
I expect that it will be about the same. My son goes to a private school. He hated online/zoom classes this spring. His teachers struggled as well, since they had no online teaching experience. In the fall, if the classes return to being online (I do not see an alternative really), we are seriously considering making a move. There is a local community college that provides HS online classes (and have done so for years). My state also has a virtual HS online, to support home schoolers and HSers whose remote HS have trouble covering all of their subjects. This would suck mightily for my son since next year is his senior year. This year's senior class from my son's private school are heading to college. Some are heading to tier one private schools. Can you imagine dropping 40-60K for what will be their online at-home freshman year? I expect a **** ton of these students taking a gap year, or maybe take classes at the local community college (since they are living at home).
This is key. I have stated it before... and repeating it now. We have evidences that people were ALREADY changing behaviors before the stay-at-home orders. We now also have evidence that people were already changing behaviors before the lifting of these orders, but NOT as much. It's almost as it doesn't matter what the local orders are. It mostly matter what's the regional or national view is. One state can fully re-open and the next can can fully continue stay-at-home and they may have the exact same outcome because people aren't listening to either one, but more to actuality of the scope of the issue. This means more likely that until we *solve* this virus issue, both the real economy and national health will be in the same boat... coasting beside each other up or down dependent on how well we actually handle the virus. There is no magic solution to it. We have a virus problem and that's the root cause that need to be addressed. This is of course a very simplified view. What the people believe, which is dependent on how they get their info, is important going forward. Even if they perceived the wrong info, there is a natural auto-correction feedback... to some degree.
