Did you guys miss this? Either this means that he is favoring the Yankees or that he understands that if too much salary is committed to one player a "winning environment" could be compromised. Even if we guaranteed him 9-10 mil per, we could trade him in three. I think a 30 year old Carlos Beltran will be relatively as attractive as a 29 year old A-Rod, and probably to the same team.
Here are the details to Albert Pujols' contract. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports the seven-year contract signed by OF Albert Pujols was worth $100 million. The base salaries for the deal are $7 million (2004), $11 million (2005), $14 million (2006), $15 million (2007) and $16 million (2008-2010). The Cardinals have a $16 million option with a $5 million buyout. The Cardinals also get to defer $3 million a year from his 2007-10 salaries without interest, with Pujols getting $1.2 million a year from 2020-29. If Beltran wants more than this, we should pass.
Another source said a more likely number for the Astros would be $25 million per year, which still would nearly triple the $9.19 million the team will receive in 2005 under its current contract with FSN Southwest. I guess Drayton just plans on putting all of the extra cash back in his pocket?
The Pujols contract is a fair assessment of market value. 7 years, 100 mill = 14 mil a season. Vlad Guerrero, last year's top hitting FA, signed for 5 years, 70 mil = 12 mil a season. Both are better hitters than Beltran, but neither is as valuable a fielder. I'd draw a line in the sand at 7 years, 105 million and see if they bite. If not, there is better bang for the buck out there.
i have to say...if thats what the best hitter in baseball is getting, then he cant be worth 200 over 10
I'm quoting this, DV, so that hopefully more people pay attention to it. This is a new era of baseball, and we have better ways to evaluate players than simple numbers like BA and RBIs. Sure, his BA was .258 with the Astros, but his OBP was .368, which measures very well with many comparable star outfielders. Without even mentioning his power numbers, I'll take a .258 hitter with a .368 OBP every single time over a .315 hitter with a .340 OBP. It's all about how often you get on base, particularly when you have speed on the bases like Carlos does. In the end, BA is close to irrelevant as a statistic by itself. It's still clearly relevant as part of the overall package, but not unless you discuss the other numbers with it. In many ways, I look at this situation the way I looked at McGrady and the Rockets. You might not be able to have as balanced a team as you would if you signed a more cost-effective option, but you don't pass up the opportunity to get a player this special. It's just too rare. Yes, there does come a point such as ARod's contract that it becomes too much, but this isn't a 25 mil deal that will eat up a third of the payroll. If the bidding is that high, I'm sure the Astros will go out. But we can afford 15 mil a season for a player like this, and we can do it for 10 years. His speed may decline some, but defense is more than just the speed to run down flyballs. Jim Edmonds is 34 and has clearly lost a step, but he's still winning Gold Gloves. Also, redgoose made a good comment about the evolution of power hitters and how late many of them have hit their respective primes. I think Beltran may be capable of taking even more steps forward with his power... his performance during the second half of the season in Houston and in the playoffs shows that he may still be developing there. 37 isn't that old in baseball. He'll still have his power and he'll still have the intelligence and baseball smarts that help him to be such a good defensive player. He'll still have his eye and his ability to get on base. He has no real injury history and is a great guy in the clubhouse. With that said, I'd obviously like to do 6 or 7 years before I'd do 10, but it's not a breaking point, imo. Beltran is just too special of a player to let go if he comes around 15 million - that's a very fair price given his abilities. Of course, the Yankees could drive that price up, but we'll worry about that if/when it happens. If something like 130-150 million over 10 years gets Beltran to sign, I'd put it on the table. And as many have pointed out, we've actually been able to sign quite a few free agents (Kent, Pettitte, Clemens) with Bagwell making a comparable salary to what Beltran would earn.
Didn't see it posted here's an article by Jay Mariotti in today's Chicago Sun-Times. In his opinion the Cubs and White Sox won't sign Beltran and "Houston, the team that rented him for half a season and rode him to within a victory of a World Series, isn't expected to pony up the necessary booty." http://www.suntimes.com/output/mariotti/cst-spt-jay05.html
I agree with you that BA is less relevant now, but even by the numbers you state are significant, Beltran is below the premier hitters in baseball that we are trying to compare contracts with and a few other I threw in for comparison. Berkman - OBP - .450, OPS - 1.015 Pujols - OBP - .415, OPS - 1.072 Ramirez - OBP - .411, OPS - 1.010 Guerrero - OBP - .391, OPS - .989 Beltran - OBP - .368, OPS - .915 Bagwell - OBP - .377, OPS - .8642 Beltran is a great hitter, but nothing out of this world. Even Bagwell, who can't lift his right arm, had a better OBP than Beltran. I am not trying to suggest that Beltran isn't worth a lot of money and that we shouldn't try to resign him, just that we need to keep things in perspective and not go overboard b/c of the playoffs. The question then remains, how much of a premium do you pay for a good hitter than can field and run the bases? Certainly not much more than Vlad was paid.
Beltran rates either 2nd or 3rd as a complete player on the list you mentioned. That factored into the fact he plays CF, makes him worth 15 mil or so. I think him vlad, and pujols are all comparable players with albert the best hitter but vlad/beltran much superior glove men. Manny comes next, then Berkman. But their is a big gap in the value of a Berkman compared to Carlos because he doesn't run the bases well or is near as good defensively.
And as far as Mariotti's article, blah, blah, blah. He doesn't know anything. That is just regurgitated crap that has been spewed all season. Houston will pony up a fair offer to Carlos and I hope people keep dismissing his chances of staying because they are much better than they think.
Football deals aren't worth the paper they're written on, because the contracts aren't guaranteed. You'd have to be a fool to guarantee ten years to a player who might get hurt next season and drop off, or just Richard Hidalgo himself into mediocrity.
Yeah I think A-Rod is the only one to get that kind of deal and we see how well that worked out for the Rangers
This is the team you "proved" you could have. Try this future roster on for size: C-Chavez/Gimenez(maybe 2 mil max) 1B-Berkman(10 mil a year) 2b-Burke/Conrad or FA option(anywhere from minimum to 3-4 mil a year) ss-everett(3-4 mil a year) 3b-ensberg/FA(4-5 mil) LF-Lane(again 5 mil or so in a few years) CF-Beltran(15-17 mil) RF-Taveras(minimum) I see about 50 mil spent on that position player/bench list. And I was being potentially being generous with lane/morgan/everett(who could be cheaper or replaced by low cost efficient FA signings) Starting pitching Oswalt(8-10 mil) Miller(4-5 mil or so) Backe(minimum, who knows) Buckholz(minimum) Bullpen Qualls(minimum, who knows) Wheeler(see qualls) Harville(see qualls) Lidge(6-8 mil a year possibly more but he is a closer) Thanks, but no thanks. That team is not going to win you a World Series, and, as great as the NLCS is, don't you think it's time to reach a little bit farther. Your lineup consists of Beltran, Berkman and a bunch of players who are really question marks at this point in their career. Your starting pitching consists of Oswalt and then pitchers you hope will have a good season, but never know. The same can be said about the bullpen, with the exception of Lidge. There is no way you could argue that that lineup will win the World Series much less get you there. Looking at what the Cards, Yanks, Red Sox and even Astros this year had and comparing your competitive teams is like apples and oranges. And finally, looking at, imo, today's best player, Albert Pujols and seeing his comparable contract value proves even further that 10 years, much less 10 years at $150 - $180 million, is just too much, I mean, at the upper end of that range, you're essentially saying you can get Albert Pujols PLUS another player 80% of Albert Pujols (which is still damn good). No way Beltran is worth 1.8x Albert Pujols, or even 1.5x in my mind.
He wasn't talking about that lineup for next year...this is for years down the road when Bagwell and Biggio retire. I think that's a solid line-up and pitching staff.
If Chavez, Burke, Ensberg or Lane are starting for the Stros in a few years the team is thoroughly ****ed.
