i think Rocket will get 10 points more than last season ,because we get bozi and our bench become deeper.
Great post Kim, and while the positioning looks very good on paper, things aren't so easy with JVG. He starts out on one side of the court and swings the ball around to the other, where Yao has hopefully positioned himself well. JVG has always struggled to find innovative ways to get his players the ball where and how they want it, which is often the result of a stagnant offense. Take the triangle offense. It looks simple on paper but the reason Tex Winter was instrumental to it's success in Chicago and LA was because he devised a number of ways to set up the triangle offense, so his teams could use it repeatedly and actually take advantage of superior positioning. Setting up plays are just as important as executing them. JVG fails in this department, his method of "unpredictability" is going to Yao once every three plays. With Yao's mismatch size and ability he can get away with it, but he certainly doesn't make things easy for his players. Couple of points I'd like to make, in regards to Bonzi not being a good fit under JVG. 1. JVG is not an offensive rebounding coach. He wants his guards to get back on defense, not crash the o-boards. In the 04-05 season with a healthy Sura and TMac, Houston was the 4th worst offensive rebounding team. They improved last year not with better rebounding from the guards, but Yao following up his shots. 2. Looking at the NBA Hotzones charts for the last 2 seasons, Bonzi has scored the majority of his points very close to the basket. That is where his strength lies on the offensive end, attacking the basket and posting up. Can JVG find effective and NEW ways to get Bonzi the ball on the weakside in a position to attack the basket? 3. JVG has predictable offensive sets. Guards who can post up are much better in motion offenses with coaches who know how to get them the ball where they want it. JVG can do this with Yao because of his size and strength, but you have not seen him do it repeatedly with any of his guards, including McGrady. Now take Jerry Stackhouse, a lethal player in the low block. Don Nelson was great at making the most out of Stackhouse's game close to the basket, running different offensive sets to get him the ball within 15 ft of the basket and letting him go to work a number of times each game. Avery Johnson might be a COY, but he's no offensive architect. Josh Howard and Dirk are the only players you see posting up, but they are allowed to back in from the perimeter with opposing teams paying more attention to their outside shooting than say a 7'6 Yao Ming close to the basket.
Very insightful post, Ronny. I recall a couple of NBA analysts explained to their TV audiences with visual aid/diagrams how Phil Jackson's teams excuted Tex Winter's triangle offense to almost perfection. Incredibly effective and efficient offensive game plan when you have the right players on your team. The analysis on JVG's coaching hit the nail on the head. I give him credit for persistently guiding Yao to develop into a dominant low post player he is now. Not much else, unfortunately. Assuming Bonzi Wells is a Rocket, how he fits into Rockets' grand scheme -- hopefull more dynamic than we've been used to see -- is going to be a big question mark.
Good stuff, one question is whether Battier and Alston should be reversed. I can imagine our offense getting bogged down when Battier can't get an entry pass past a Garnett or an Odom. Only other concern is that while Yao is awesome, he is not the world's quickest offensive post player. He is going to get smothered a lot from the blindside once he starts his post move, and it is going to take a lot of communication from his teammates for him to make the right decisions. But the things I love: Like I told my friend the other day, Battier will lose weakside rebounding battles against many power forwards, but Wells will win them against opposing shooting guards. Wells is poor in transition defense, but excellent on the O-boards. Put him in a position to do what he does best. You have given T-Mac approximately half of the court to work with. With this kind of spacing, he should be able to create all kinds of 2-point shots, or make an effective entry pass.
Good point. I think the Rockets are very fortunate to have a player of McGrady's calibur, who can bail them out when they are having trouble moving the ball. I think Bonzi helps here too. In the past, when the opponents' defense was so focused on Yao that the Rockets were unable to get him the ball, they would often settle for JHo in the post with his little jumphook. Defenses always allowed JHo to take that shot, for better or for worse. This is why I like Bonzi as the post alternative to Yao. I think Bonzi is more efficient than JHo at scoring inside, and IF Bonzi can become consistent with his elbow 2pt jumper, than JHo shouldn't be playing at all. I agree that JVG desires for his team not to allow fastbreaks. If anyone heard JVG's commentary during the Mil-Det playoffs series, it was obvious that JVG believes strongly in offensive floor balance, which means not everyone can be near the hoop. So just because there should be 2 players ready to run back, doesn't mean no one can crash the boards. Back in 2003-04 (Francis' last year), when Yao was in the linup, he offensively rebounded 8.3%, while the team on the floor as a whole (usually Cato, Francis, Cat, Jim Jackson, and Yao) offensively rebounded 30.4% of all missed shots. In 2004-05 (T-Mac's 1st year), Yao's offensive rebounding went up to 9.1% of all missed shots, while the team while Yao was on the floor (usually JHo, Sura, T-Mac, Wesley, and Yao) offensively rebounded 27.8% of all missed shots. And last year, Yao offensively rebounded 8.3% again (I believe this was not regression from 2004-05, as much as Yao shooting more with T-Mac out) and his the Rockets as a team with Yao on the floor offensively rebounded 26.2%. So the Rockets were actually a worse offensive rebounding team last year than in 2004-05. I think they will do better this year because T-Mac will be back (more non-Yao shots) and because of the addition of Bonzi (to succeed Francis and Sura as the O-Rebounding guard extraordinaire). As I stated earlier, the original picture isn't exactly where I want all players to be parked at. I just want them to get more shots from their hotzones. So when the ball swings to one corner for a 3pt attempt, the other corner is moving back towards the half-court for floor balance. And when Bonzi is crashing the boards, he's doing it in the role of a PF, because Battier, T-Mac, and/or the PG would be retreating on D.
I'd agree with just about everything but the last portion. I can't say I'll disagree, but I can say it's a little more tweaking to it. Don Nelson is a helluva coach in terms of offensive abilities maximized to the highest level. As you said, Stackhouse is very good in the low block for a guard, as is Bonzi Wells, however with the limited possessions the Rockets get, I don't think we'll create room of plays 'for' Bonzi. I do believe he'll be a 6th man, just because he said he's open to being that, and since he is new, Van Gundy will do that to him. I do think our most effective lineup will be with him at the 4 or 2, and Battier at the other(depending upon defensive matchups). I do think him as a 6th man can get more oppurtunites to be a 2nd option on offense, considering probably half of the time he's out there(say 15,16mins of the 30,32 he plays) Yao or McGrady will be out.
Nice job Kim. It's obvious that you've put a lot of thought and effort into this thread. But allow me to play devil's advocate with some of your points. 1. You've clocked Bonzi as an excellent shooter at the elbows, but that was just last year on 44 attempts. If you go back three years in order to enlarge the sample size, the percentages drop drastically. He ends up averaging out to being a sub 40% shooter from those spots. And since we don't really know if he can pass from the high post, I'm dubious as to whether he'll be effective at that position. I'd rather place Bonzi on the weakside, below the foul line, or on the foul line extended. This would allow him to be the secondary post player on the floor, giving him a chance to post up when the ball gets reversed. While still putting him in position to hit the offensive glass. 2. The way we run our offense, inside/out. It's hard to position two guys in the corners in your scenario, because the passing angles aren't there to get them the ball. If Yao gets the ball on one block, the weakside three spotter needs to be up towards the elbow three, in order to receive the reversal pass from the top of the key, or a kick-out from Yao. The only way to get two corner spot up players to work is in a drive and kick offense, where the action is forced on penetration from the top of the key. Or if you do a totally spread out one post player and four three point spot up shooters offense. I think that would be an intriguing lineup idea for the Rox. With this group, I'd probably go with: Yao T-mac Battier Novak or Padgett Rafer - Who is pretty decent on straight away three pointers, and is one of the better ball reversal passers on the team. That would be a very good group to throw out in the mid-second or mid-third quarter, where you can sort of sneak up on a team. Have a few guys getting hot from behind the arc and you can blow the doors off the game. P.S. Regarding that story about the Suns practicing threes in transition, you didn't hear it from me. Must have been someone else.
Nice job analyzing. But may I remind you that the person in charge is still JVG. He is not going to change his offense to fit around is players. He has zero imagination. His players have to fit around his predictable and boring offense. If he feels that they cant, he wont play them. Simple as that.
i don't know zboy. i thought it was jvg's fault last year that the offense was so stagnant but just the previous year they were kicking serious ass a lot of the time. last year i believe he could have used stro better but truth is there wasn't much to work with. noone was stepping up except yao.
JVG may be no genius on offense, but he is capable of adjusting to his rosters. When Ewing got old and hurt, he switched to an guard oriented offense to take advantage of Spree and Houston. When forcing the ball into Yao did not work to start 04 05, he got McGrady the ball and opened up the offense with the vet shooters. Last year he stubbornly stuck with Yao in the post perhaps too much. But it developed Yao in a lost season and honestly what other effective options did he have with bad shooting and lack of size all around? The guy did not stay in the league for this long by knowing one offensive set.
Good points. In 03/04 Bonzi shot from the 2pt elbows 30/93 for 32.3% In 04/05 Bonzi shot from the 2pt elbows 16/52 for 30.8% In 05/06 Bonzi shot from the 2pt elbows 23/44 for 52.3% It is obvious that he is not a volume shooter, it is yet to seen if he can hit that jumper consistently a la JHo. But I wanted to put Bonzi in a position where he could cut to the rim for some passes from Yao, crash the boards, and potentially hit a jumper (the elbows are the only places where Bonzi shot well outside last year). There's going to be some experimentation for sure to see what works out best. So is something like this setup more of what you're looking to do? I like this idea. I really think if Novak can hit the 3ball like he did in college, then there's a huge role for him on this team.
