In the world of finance, its all about maximize return and minimize loss. I agree that some capital will flow to China/India as their market grows, and that's prudent business, its called hedging. Of course they can't just all dump the US dollars, you simple spread your riskes around. And there are still significant riskes in the chinese market. Another thing is when you move money away from US treasury, you still need somewhere to invest that will provide some return on the capital. The financial markets in China are still in its early stage of development, their equity market need more standard regulation, and their fix income market is almost non-existent. By contrast, the US fix income market (primary and secondary) is much larger than the US stock market. So they still have a long way to go. I do agree US need to cut back on the spending, and fix the trade imbalance. However, I am not sure the euro will replace the dollar, as some EU nations have worse economies than us. My main point is some people acts if China being the next superpower will somehow reduce US to a third world country. China are catching up and that is a good thing, if this works out everyone will be better off.
Of course you comparing with other much industrialized (sometiems much smaller) nations, and I was talking about China being the next superpower. Relative to that, we still have one of best health cares in the world. Spend some time in China/India, you would know how far their health care systems need to improve. Let's not forget, some of these countries you listed can get their good health care by not spending as much on defence (becuase someone else is providing the defence for them).
400 is no small number, maybe it is if you compare the US and Russia's stockpiles. China isn't mad. All China cares about is its homeland and regional security. Most of that deterrence is contingent on a land invasion. No country is sane to think it can invade China through conventional weapons. In other words, China doesn't want to be messed with, and it doesn't want to mess with other nations outside its region. Your questions and assumptions are moot. China is the largest holder of American currency bonds. Let's pretend that they can switch to another currency, such as the Euro or even the Yen, immediately without any consequences. That decreased demand in the dollar would mean that Americans have to pay for the true price of their goods. Plus, if other countries follow China's lead to get off the fix, then that means Americans would have to spend more within their means. Should there be another unofficial currency reserve, Americans would have to borrow and pay interest to spend on world goods. The de facto currency reserve means we get a interest free loan because foreign investors are paying for it. To wrap it all up, if China ever surpasses the US in GNP, then whatever currency reserve they use officially becomes stable. Other investors would follow the lead of stability. While this implies another unofficial currency reserve, even the idea of balanced denominations (such as through the Euro, Dollar, and Yen/Yuan) would severely cripple our current standard of living. The collapse I mentioned is entirely our doing. I agree that if it happened, it would wreck the world. Hate to cut it short, but I have class now.
This was the original statement you made, to which I responded "These are very debatable, to say the least." OK, Shawn Bradly said to T-Mac:"Hey, take that - I am still taller than you, notwithstanding the dunked you just had on me!" Yao Ming, nearby, smirked.
You CANNOT dump a large amount US treasury WITHOUT any consequences, much less the largest US treasury holder. So your assumptions are moot. However I wouldn't be suprised to see China/Japan start selling US bonds in smaller numbers. But like I said earlier, those money still need to go somewhere that provides a yield. Current trend however sugguests people are buying instead of selling, long term US treasury yields are droping comparing to short term yields.
Not only is superb health care unavailable to millions in the United States, although we are still the destination of choice for advanced, cutting edge health care from around the world by those wealthy enough to afford to come here and pay for it, but here in Texas (and I am a native Texan and Houstonian who has lived in Austin for the last 25 years, not that it makes any difference) we have one of the largest %'s of uninsured in the country and the largest number of uninsured children in the United States.. That's uninsured Americans. Your countrymen, women and children. And a majority of the Republican Party in power now don't much give a damn, having deliberately created policies to reduce the number of children covered by CHIPS in Texas, so they could run for reelection "bragging" that they didn't raise taxes. They give a damn about big business, and getting their goodies from the hundreds of lobbyists here. They give a damn for their fantastic pensions, which they desperately tried to get raised, and just ran out of time to do so. (look for it to happen during a special session) And yet there are many saying right now that "spending in this budget is out of control!" What utter and complete garbage. We have the largest growth in population of any state in the country. They eviscerated what was already one of the worst safety nets of social services for the elderly, disabled, and children of the poor in the US two years ago, when they slashed state spending by ten billion dollars so they could say they "balanced the budget without raising taxes." They can find money and make policy decisions that benefit large campaign contributors and those who pay for their junkets to resorts and the like, but they can't provide even basic care for those most in need. Some care. Some care a lot, and I'm talking about Republicans, but if you don't "go along," you have your committee chair or vice-chair stripped from you, and you are shut out as punishment by Craddick. Many of you just have no idea how things are being done here at the Capitol. It's immoral and an outrage. And many of you voted for these people. Very little was done during this session, and it wasn't because of Democrats, it was Republicans fighting between each other, and the worst display, or rather the worst leadership my wife and I have seen in 25 years. There are some good Republicans in the Legislature, but for gods sake, vote in more of them. What is going on is truly sickening. It's nice to have our health care when you have the money. I wouldn't be here clicking on my keyboard without it, no doubt, having a genetic glitch that has my cholesterol at 650 and triglycerides at 1200 without medication... medication far beyond the reach of the uninsured. (it's 159 & 143 respectively, thank you very much) Millions of Texans are just **** out of luck. Here's a few statistics for you: 79th LEGISLATURE Health and human services spending tiptoes forward Not all cuts restored from 2003, and state is still among nation's worst. By Michelle M. Martinez AMERICAN-STATESMAN STAFF Thursday, June 02, 2005 Children enrolled in the state's health insurance program will get dental, vision and mental health benefits, and adults on Medicaid will have a better chance of getting counseling now that the Legislature has restored some of the cuts it made during a budget crunch two years ago. But parents will still have to renew their children's enrollment in the insurance program every six months. Doctors and hospitals won't get any more money for serving Medicaid patients. And nursing home residents on Medicaid won't get an increase in their monthly allowance of $45. Money for those areas didn't make it into the $19.1 billion in state funds that the Legislature approved for health and human services programs for the next two years in the budget lawmakers sent to Gov. Rick Perry this week. The state will spend about 14 percent more, including federal money, in those areas over the next two years than in the current budget. But Texas still ranks 45th in the nation in per-capita spending on public health, 46th in mental health spending and last in the number of children with health insurance. "There are some who believe we are spending too much in this area. There were many of us who believe we did a lot of good but wish we could have had a lot more," Sen. Judith Zaffirini, D-Laredo, who played a crucial role in the writing of the health and human services budget, said on the Senate floor over the weekend. The partial restoration of budget cuts got some praise from advocates for low-income Texans. "These decisions are a step in the right direction and will absolutely help low-income families in accessing health care," said Beth Atherton, director of Insure.a.kid, which helps sign up families for the Children's Health Insurance Program. "We are still concerned about barriers to enrollment, but we hope the Legislature will keep the momentum strong and reduce these barriers in the next session." Atherton was referring to a 90-day waiting period and a review of a family's assets, including the value of its cars, put into place two years ago. Those measures were part of lawmakers' efforts to help deal with a $10 billion budget deficit in 2003. CHIP coverage also went from 12 months to six months, and advocates said the hassle of renewing so often has contributed to the number of people dropping out of the program: Enrollment went from 507,259 in September 2003 to 326,809 last month. State officials say that a number of factors contributed to the decline but that they can't say definitively what led to decreased enrollment. Efforts to return to the longer eligibility period were unsuccessful, though lawmakers did eliminate monthly premiums. Instead, families will pay an income-based enrollment fee every six months. Some cuts were also restored to Medicaid, the federal-state health insurance for poor pregnant women, children and elderly and disabled people. Medicaid makes up about one-fourth of the state's current $126 billion budget and nearly three-fourths of the budget for the agency that runs the program, the Health and Human Services Commission. Those figures include both state and federal money. Adults in the program will again get podiatry, eyeglass and hearing aid benefits. They will be able to receive counseling through psychologists, social workers, licensed professional counselors and licensed professional marriage and family therapists, options eliminated in 2003. After those cuts were made, adult Medicaid recipients were limited to receiving counseling from psychiatrists, which proved challenging because few psychiatrists offer that service. Nursing home residents on Medicaid and doctors and hospitals drew the short straw this year. Despite efforts to restore it to $60, the personal needs allowance for nursing home residents will stay at $45 a month. "You've got people in nursing homes, and 60 percent of them do not have visitors," said Candice Carter, associate state director of the American Association of Retired Persons in Texas. "They don't have the family members who come in and they bring them the things that that person needs. I actually challenged the Legislature and I challenged the governor to look in their budget and say, 'I can live on $45 a month to provide for basic personal needs.' " Doctors and hospitals won't see the amount of money they receive for providing Medicaid services go up, either. In 2003, the Legislature cut the rate at which doctors are reimbursed by 2.5 percent and hospitals by 5 percent. Lawmakers pleased advocates for Texans with disabilities by adding money to reduce waiting lists for five community-based programs for disabled people on Medicaid. The lists have grown since 2003 because lawmakers didn't include money to reduce them. There will be enough money to reduce the waiting lists, which have more than 100,000 names on them, by 7,000 over the next two years. Some people have been waiting more than 10 years for services,which can include help from nurses or personal assistants, and medical supplies and equipment people with disabilities need to live at home. "This is the first time they have attempted to reduce the waiting list for these community services in recent memory," said Dennis Borel, executive director of the Coalition of Texans with Disabilities. Children's health insurance What's changing: •State will again pay for dental, vision and all mental health services. •Monthly premiums will be replaced by an enrollment fee every six months and will be based on income. What stays the same: •Value of families' vehicles and bank accounts will still be used to determine eligibility. •Families will still have to reapply every six months instead of every year. http://www.statesman.com/news/content/shared/tx/legislature/stories/06/2hhs.html# This is just something I quickly found. It's much worse than the article indicates. Texans should be ashamed. Keep D&D Civil!!
How is everything you quoted me moot if it hinges on China's economic growth and superiority? I brought up the hypothetical because the Yuan doesn't need to be the de facto currency reserve. The erosion of the dollar's dominance could happen over 20 years and still prove the point. Though this assumes that America's politicians solves the account deficit and Medicaid problems. The US Comptroller General estimates that in 2040, Americans will have to pay 45 trillion current dollars from debt and obligations.
