I feel like people are sleeping on this kid he doesnt even have his own thread lol. Most mocks have him at 5 so if the Rox end up with the worst record we are guaranteed 5th spot at worst and can def end up with him. Personally I'm really high on him the only issue is he is coming off injury and can use a larger sample size. What he is showing is top 3 talent level though I mean he is only 18 yrs old but is sniping at a crazy ass 47% from 3 on over 4 attempts. For reference Corey Kispert was seen as the best shooter of his class last year and he shot only 40% and he was already 23, so for Griffin to do this as an 18 yr old is very impressive imo. He is also athletic, has decent height, wingspan and is fairly strong. Perhaps if he didnt get injured he'd be in the mix for no 1 RN.
My concern is his defense. I really don't want a sniper who can't defend. I haven't looked at him that closely. What do you think?
Moves like Wizards Jordan. Those injuries of his were no joke. Not the defender everyone wants him to be. Not the athlete people want him to be. Personally, I'd rather have Keegan at 5, or swing for the fences with Duren.
If Shaedon Sharp declares, then I think he could be the pick at 4/5. Two-way player, star potential.. It's also possible that someone else will establish themselves with great play in the tournament. We'll see...
Something about his game just feels off to me when I watch him. I don’t know if it’s his athleticism, handle or defense. I think his game will translate and he’ll be a solid player, but I wouldn’t spend a top 5 pick on him. If we’re at the 5th pick and Sharpe declares I like to think he’s the pick and hopefully is our guy next to Jalen for the forceable future. Realistically the drop after the top 4 is a crap shoot and could be any of Griffin, Murray, Davis and Mathurin depending on how the tournament goes.
This is my observation as well I think he may be a faller. A 47% 3 point mark is unsustainable- and his role on Duke isn't a featured role. Perhaps in 2 years he may have regained most of his athleticism, but that gamble is a large one to take top 5. He probably falls. If Iowa win a few games, people might start to realise Keegan Murray can play the 3 in the NBA and attack from the perimeter. A good run would be huge for him
Well if you think about it Keegan has 3 yrs on AJ lol. The main reason he doesnt have lateral quickness is cuz of his sprained ankle, it happened right before season started and he is still recovering now. Thats actually a good thing for him as he has shown what he can do while immobile, so you know he'll be even better once his quickness comes back. Most rookies arent gonna move heaven and earth day 1, it takes years for them to develop anyway so I have no issue if he redshirts yr 1 just like Jalen Green. Not sure how unsustainable his 3 pt shooting is, he's already had 26 games and took 4 3pt attempts on average so that 47% mark is over 104 shots. We dont need a guy who will feature on offense we got Green, Sengun, KPJ and Wood who all can score in iso situations. We actually need elite 3nD players who can capitalize when Green or KPJ passes them the ball. Keegan is indeed looking good but I remember guys like Dourte, Quentin Grimes and Corey Kispert last year. For every polished rookie like Ayo Dosunmu or Desmond Bane you got dozens of seniors and juniors who were just beating up younger kids in the NCAA.
His mobility is shot cuz he is recovering from injury, he cant move laterally very well RN. However prior to injury he was really bursty and he has a 7-0 wingspan with huge strength so he should be a good defender if he wants to be.
Sharp hasnt even played at the college level lol that seems insane to me use a top 5 pick on a guy you havent seen play vs college comp. Austin Rivers and RJ Barrett were the no 1 in their high school class but dropped after 1 yr.
Physically he looks like a clone of Jimmy Butler to me Prototype 3&D wing 5th best on my board, and the last of the Top Tier with JSJ / Chet / Paulo / Ivey
Yup. But 1 yr of college/gleague/euroleague etc reduced the no of busts considerably vs high school prospects.
AJ Griffin is NOT the worst defender in his class and he isn't even a bad defender. He was largely a neutral defender in college and had upside as a defender because of his 7'0" wingspan and strong build. He didn't do himself any favors going to Duke either.
I respectfully think that is a mistake. He is a very good athlete that shoots very well, is a strong 6'6" with a 7'0" wingspan and was in an offense where he didn't really get to go 1 on 1 very often. He has a really high upside and even his floor is a useful three point shooter.
PDWeb, who does work for an analytics platform did a good writeup on AJG It mainly details his shooting and scoring upside. tl;dr: AJG has great natural shooting touch. His natural touch lets him get away with strange/difficult shot attempts. OTD jumpers, deep range 3s, defenders closing out. Movements are unorthodox, but "It doesn’t matter how fast you go from point A to point B, it matters how well & how consciously a player can get to a spot." "AJG has a ton of wasted steps, and until he fixes it, there are gonna be volume limitations off some types of movement." Personally I think he's a high-end #3 scorer with the potential to be a #2. Jumpshot reliant, and doesn't have natural playmaking skills. Will be able to finish at the rim, but not particularly creative getting there. The movement/athleticism concerns are somewhat concerning on the defensive end, but I think he has the strength and tools to compensate and be average. Have him in that 6-10 pick range.
