[538]Westbrook broke BPM and is "pretty badly overrated"

Not out of first place, unless Russ is so overrated it drops us 7 games....

I mean you have been making your opinion known about Russ.... and this agrees with what you believe..... Look at your title "Extremely overrated" when Nate said "Initial verdict seems to be that Westbrook is pretty badly overrated by some other advanced stats."

I wonder what Nate and Co value grabbing a rebound and leading a fast break as an elite transition player?

 

"Westbrook's a Rocket now! Bust out those spreadsheets, guys! We've got to find a way to make him suck as much as possible!"

 

But does it overcompensate and not take into account the fast break off the rebound? IDK?

 

Guaranteed the media will turn on him once he dons the Rockets uniform.

 

The resulting fast break would already be accounted for by a number of other factors (offensive rating, plus/minus, assists, points, etc)

 

Jeez. I had a dream last night. In the dream CP3 was on the Rockets and all the sports media said it wouldn't work. All summer in the dream they were bashing the trade. They said they couldn't play together. Rocket fans were not all that happy about it...and then they were 1 game from the finals and lost to the warriors. However, it was amazing to see the media sports analysts on ESPN and elsewhere that were talking trash all of a sudden had to admit how historic the team played during the season and throughout the playoff run. It was if they never said a damn thing earlier that summer leading to the new season and at the beginning of the season. Mainly because Chris Paul suffered an injury in the series they lost to the Warrior Dynasty. In the dream he played for two seasons and then got traded for Westbrook AND THEN the whole news cycle of trash reporting started all over again. It was like some kind of sports news hamster wheel of summer garbage without knowing anything until the games were being played...and then I woke up and turned on ESPN and looked at my twitter lol

 

I have been thinking about that exact thing for a while now while trying to understand Westbrook's value. On one hand, his shooting numbers don't look great and we can rag on him for grabbing cheap rebounds and not closing out on defense... but dammit if he didn't seem to kill the Rockets. The Thunder have always been really tough to beat, and it always seemed like we could only create some separation when Westbrook was on the bench. He'd come back in and they'd go on a run and the game would end up always coming down to the wire.

It's how those battles with the Thunder always seemed to go.

 

So in this instance, the new Nate metric would diminish the impact of rebounding while accounting similarly for everything else?

 

Is it though? If he averages 5 3-point attempts per game, the difference between being a 29% 3-point shooter and a 34% 3-point shooter is 0.68 points per game.

 

His explanation makes it sound he like he diminishes the value of uncontested rebounds compared to contested rebounds. Contested rebounds = very good, high value, uncontested rebounds = not so important, much less value added. I would guess this is determined by the closest opponent at the time of the rebound? So if you grab a rebound and there's no opponent within 8 feet of you, that probably has close to 0 value. If you get a rebound with an opponent within 1 foot of you, that's a very valuable rebound.

If a player gets mostly contested rebounds, their value will remain unchanged (or maybe even go up?). But for players who are grabbing mostly uncontested rebounds, their value would suffer.

 

They already have

 

Different sport.

 

Exactly!!! Now all of the sudden he’s over rated? **** the media.

 

I was just trying to be funny. I'm actually a big fan of Nate and 538.

 

Reading 101

 

As far as margins go, 0.68 is a decent size.

At the end of the day, though, it's just one of numerous models. No reason yet to think that this is any better (or worse) than the rest of them.

 

I knew that. I was trying to be funny back! Should have added a smiley.

Better not to accidentally start a political back and forth, though. God knows, it takes next to nothing to set that off. D&D is like World War III all the time, these days. Used to be an every other day thing down there!