And you’re the exact opposite. A five seed and a first round exit? Unless you’re predicting injury that’s completely ridiculous.
We also had CP and Clint out for extended periods + the Carmelo debacle. Remove those and results would likely be totally different. I'm convinced we would have had 1st or 2nd seed if not for that
Right now, our top 6-7 man rotation is still up there in the West, I would put us behind Clippers (they have our number on the defensive end) and the Lakers (just because AD and Cousins have historically been tough mismatches for us). Utah might be on par with us because they now have Conley and Bogdanovic taking Rubio and Favors' minutes. So that leaves us somewhere in 3rd or 4th spot, without making significant upgrades to the bench or the 4 spot? I mean I'll take it FOR NOW but we definitely need more talent/depth on this team just to make sure we're still winning during the regular season if/when members of our core team goes down.
Yeah, that's way off, could never happen, considering we were a 4 seed last year and everyone is a year older on an aging team... WTF people! Really!? I realize this is a Rockets fan site, but try being a bit objective for a change, sh*t.... Forget it, Rockets going all the way this year, hell yeah!
exactly. we won 53 games with no bench for 2/3 of the season, injured starters, no defensive coach for the first 20 or so games? and the melo drama to start the year. give me rivers, house, elston turner, for a full season, even if you assume injuries will happen we win 5 more games than last year. i think as is we are close to a 60 win team. the clippers and lakers may not be there yet. we can still add a backup center for the minimum. someone who can play every game instead of nene resting for the playoffs would up our win total as well. and if we can trade shumpert for covington, iggy, crowder, or roberson we could regain close to our 65 win total.
It's a good thing the Rockets will be playing next season in a vacuum and will encounter no difficulties that will impede them!
love the chart. only problem i have still is everybody below austin rivers. we need better depth badly
I'm not even curious as to how you got to that conclusion, because you haven't thought it through anyways...
Well, to @forchette49 's credit, I get where some fans are coming from. Here are teams that are much improved from last season: * Lakers (and they were a playoff team before Lebron got hurt last year, remember. Added one monster piece and a couple of other good ones.) * Clippers. (Models can't really predict what Doc will do with adding two absolute beasts to an already scrappy good team.) * Jazz. (Relatively sleepy by comparison, but they were a decent playoff team that has added a couple of great pieces. Again, models can't quite predict how that will work.) * Pelicans. (No model can predict how this young team will perform but it's much more athletic and interesting than it was a year ago with pouty A.D. A team like this will probably have a good record at home, and we have to play them in N.O. a couple of times.) Moderately better: * Portland * Denver * Dallas Much worse: * GSW (LOL) * OKC (ha ha!) So, in terms of relative change, we can give fans a break, right? At least six teams in conference should be more competitive each time we play them, while only a couple will be obviously worse each time we play them. And I'm not sure 538 is accurately reflecting injury history in the model posted in the OP. Harden has been incredibly durable, so with fingers crossed, we can assume another monster season from him. C-Cap too, has usually been injury free before last season. But there's no way we get a full season out of CP1.5 and EG. Just look at their histories. I'm actually still bullish on both of them as members of the squad, but we could very easily end up with just 40-55 games for each of them. It's just not completely ridiculous, IMHO, to see a possible Rockets finish out of the top four. But I agree with y'all that people are too negative. I play negative just for the lulz, but I'm excited to see us compete this season. I just really hope for health so that we don't put it all on Harden's shoulders again. That just won't work.
This x100, thank you Lord for the objectivity, so refreshing! I actually forgot about Luka and Porzingas, damn...
Even "chemistry" is sort of a fan way of putting a positive emotional spin on things. These models are just objectively stating that Y is expected to happen based on quantified X, no emotion added. They're just a data point. They won't be totally correct, but definitely more correct than a narrative alone.
@forchette49 goes farther than that though, and declares the Rockets window closed. It's saying the Rockets can't win, and that's not objective either.
It did have GS vs TOR as it’s most likely championship matchup before the season and before the playoffs started. They are obviously never 100% accurate, but if had to guess... 538 and Vegas oddsmakers are more accurate than just about anyone posting here.
Man, you are so right! Thank you for your insight, now I can go ahead and give up on the entire srason. James Harden, after averaging 36 points per game, is definitely towards the end of his career. Meanwhile, the Lakers who you seem so fixated on, definitely will not have any chemistry issues after redoing almost their entire roster. LeBron James is the picture of youth and of course is not "another year older and near the end of his career." AD has a long history of no injuries and leading his team deep into the playoffs. Boogie has played every game for the past 2 years. Danny Green, Avery Bradley and Ramon Rondo are all young and just as good of defenders as they have always been. And Kuzma has completely proven he is a winning player and not just a guy that puts up points on a bad team. You are so right. There are no questions on that team whatsoever. If we meet them in the playoffs, Lakers in 3 (we forfeit game 4 because all of our players are at the end of their careers and retire)
We could win 60 or more and still not be relevant. We are no longer built for the playoffs. Harden has to be unworldly every game once you get to the second round, because of the increased physicality in the playoffs which makes CP and Capella less capable, not to mention Cp's increased age. We need a true defensive PF that allows us to put Tucker at SF and Gordan back to sixth man of the year. Only way to improve our playoff ready roster is to move CP3 for a decent SF or PF. If it costs us regular season games this year, so be it. We can re-group and go for it in 2020.
Lebron is a year older. Harden is still in his prime. Capela will improve. I am not afraid of Troy Daniels on defense. I'll still take Ego over D.Green. Cousins will slow them down... McGee and Rondo are still on that team and still combustible.
