This isn’t necessarily a prediction but one outcome that would not shock me is if Houston’s farm system takes a big step forward this season, Dana Brown will probably get an extension even if the big league team doesn’t make the playoffs. Espada almost certainly doesn’t survive if Houston misses the playoffs no matter what.
If we know anything about Crane is that he trusts the process. The guy let Luhnow have three 100 loss seasons without losing confidence. If he sees Brown doing the right thing with the draft and farm, he will stick with him. Crane understands how the Astros are successful long term. The only bad decision Brown has had so far is signing Walker but it’s not like he had tons of options and it still may end up okay if Walker turns it around a little bit. The biggest problem right now is that we aren’t turning out rookie of the year candidates almost every season like have been. If Burrow and Imai stay as impressive as they have been during ST, the off-season has been a success.
I will say that Houston really has churned out ROY candidates each year. Cam Smith received ROY votes last season, and could have been a better candidate if he’d not been rushed or if he’d been used differently. The year before (2024), Arrighetti was 84th in SP fwar (top 10 among rookies) so he was a really good rookie even though he didn’t get ROY votes. Prior to that you had Hunter Brown (2023) and Yainer Diaz (2023) and Jeremy Pena (2022), so the system has consistently produced core players year in and year out since like 2011; it’s actually amazing when you think about it. Last year was an anomaly because Smith fell off in the 2nd half, Arrighetti got hurt, and Diaz took a step back.
Astros have done a really good job of replenishing their major league club with high quality prospects they’ve developed mostly. But the Astros have really been the anomaly, since the Astros Fame system hasn’t been highly touted in a very long time. Brown had a lot of naysayers. I remember hearing a MLB scout scoff at the Astros exuberance regarding him, saying he’d be nothing more than a 8th inning relief pitcher. In regards Peña, most of us were expecting a fellow who’d take a few years to really fart his footing at the ML level. Yordan Alvarez was an other guy that wasn’t expected to be anywhere as good as what he’s been. if the Astros can continue to plug holes with high quality players, and a few superstars, this team should continue to be hyper competitive.
If all those guys play at their potential this season, we will be in really good shape if we don’t have any crazy injuries and Walker and Meyers aren’t black holes in the lineup. Pena Paredes Alvarez Correa Altuve Cam Diaz Walker Meyers Brown Burrows Imai Javier Arrighetti McCullers
Draft pools and slot bonus values came out Wednesday and the Astros will have $13,712,700 available to spend in the first 10 rounds. This figure gives them the 11th-biggest pool. They can spend up to $14,398,335 before they will have to forfeit their first-round pick in 2027, as that's the 5% overage threshold. Again, they will have some additional picks through free agent compensation and Hunter Brown's top-3 finish in Cy Young voting last season. Round 1, Pick 17: $4,868,600 Round 1, Pick 28: $3,363,600 Round 2, Pick 57: $1,677,400 Round 3, Pick 93: $846,900 Round 4, Pick 121: $638,800 Round 4 (compensation), Pick 133: $569,600 Round 5, Pick 153: $467,700 Round 6, Pick 182: $361,900 Round 7, Pick 211: $285,400 Round 8, Pick 241: $231,000 Round 9, Pick 271: $206,800 Round 10, Pick 301: $195,000
This time next year it’s quite possible 5 of Houston’s top 10 prospects are from this draft. They should come away with 5 of the top 100 guys available.
