2026 Astros Minor League Thread

Thanks! I've been here before, I just suck at remembering passwords. Hopefully I'll be able to get through this season before I forget this one. Get ready for way too many assumptions about players based on nigh-meaningless complex league stats.

 

More Astros than I expected made Fangraphs picks to click on next year's top 100.

Neyens and Alvarez are "This is what they look like" lauded for their frames and power potential.

Bryce Mayer was a "Surgeon" for above average command of a fastball that plays like a weapon despite average velocity.

Ryan Forcucci made the "monster breaking ball" group.

Joseph Sullivan was described as a freak athlete in the "6 foot or less category."

Kevin Alvarez was also a 2 year dart throw for one of the writers.

And finally, one "source pick" listed Ethan Frey as a pick to click.

Historically, their picks 'click' about 30% of the time, so statistically 2 of these guys should be on next year's list.

 

Yeah, I will be posting in the 5 year outlook thread closer to opening day, but I think it's pretty safe to say that Houston's 2028 everyday SS is not currently in the organization. Neyens won't be ready and I think he's a 3B in the majors. Allen aint it. Now that they've moved Matthews off of SS there aren't any potential answers. If they draft a college SS with their 1st rd pick this year it's possible he's ready, but otherwise they are going to have to sign somebody or (far more likely) make a trade.

 

2027 Opening Day Astros Top 20 Prospects:

1. OF Kevin Alvarez 55
2. IF Xavier Neyens 55
3. TBD 2026 1st rd pick (17) 55
   
4. TBD 2026 1st rd pick (28) 50+
5. OF Ethan Frey 50+
6. C Walker Janek 50
7. 2026 2nd rd pick (57) 45+
8. P Ryan Forcucci 45+
9. OF Joseph Sullivan 45+
10. P Bryce Mayer 45+
11. C Jase Mitchell 45+
12. P Alonzo Tredwell 45+
13. TBD 2026 3rd rd pick (93) 45
14. P Jackson Nezuh 45
15. P James Hicks 45
16. OF Anthony Huezo 45
17. 1B Will Bush 45
18. OF Lucas Spence 45
19. P Cole Hertzler 45
20. TBD 2026 overslot draft pick 45

Graduated: IF Brice Matthews, P Miguel Ullola, P Ethan Pecko, P AJ Blubaugh, OF Zach Cole

I think this will be an average system after this year, assuming they don't decimate it with trades.

 

Ironically enough, his swing, stance, and stature remind me of Dezenzo. Hoping for big things out of both of them.

 

Also a bit of Paul Goldschmidt in there. Prime Goldschmidt was a monster

 

2026 Astros Pop-up Position Player Prospect candidates:

From solid prospect to Top 100 prospect:
Just needs to get in full season and hit: SS Xavier Neyens, OF Kevin Alvarez
Needs to mash in AA: OF Ethan Frey, C Walker Janek, OF Joseph Sullivan

I'd set the o/u on how many of these guys are on year-end Top 100s at 1.5. Sullivan could break out but graduate before ever getting real prospect hype.

From fringey prospect to solid prospect:
Just needs to hold their own in AA: C/1B Will Bush, IF Alejandro Nunez, IF Jeron Williams, OF Lucas Spence, OF Luis Baez, IF Caden Powell, IF Nick Monistere
Needs to mash in High A: OF Kenni Gomez, OF Cesar Hernandez, OF Nehomar Ochoa Jr., OF Anthony Huezo
Needs to hold their own in Fayetteville: C Jase Mitchell

I'd say at least 2 guys from this section will be on the Org Top 10 by the end of the year. Huezo, Gomez, and Baez have the ceiling to jump into Top 100 territory if they realize their 90th percentile 2026 outcome.

From non-prospect to fringey prospect:
Hold their own in AA: C Garret Guillemette, IF Pascanel Ferreras, IF Trevor Austin
Be an everyday player in Corpus by July: OF/2B Yamal Encarnacion, IF Max Holy, OF/IF Tyler Whitaker
Be productive in High A: IF Zach Daudet, IF Alberto Hernandez, IF German Ramirez
Be productive in Fayetteville: C Yosweld Vasquez, IF Camelo Diaz, OF Luis Rives, OF/1B Juan Sieera
Make it into full season ball: OF Ethan Wagner, IF Landon Arroyos
Make it to the US: IF Sami Manzueta, IF Anderson Areinamo

Really any prospect in the system can make this jump, but these are the guys I think have realistic chances to do so. Sierra is a deep deep sleeper who could jump up 2 tiers.

 

Correct me if I’m wrong, but Frey didn’t actually receive a major league ST invite, did he? If not, this should serve as a reason to believe the team is very high on him. I really think he’s going to be a fast riser this season.

 

Transactions:

02/22/26 OF Ethan Frey assigned to Houston Astros.

 

Starting at DH today, Janek at C

 

Not sure if anyone was able to listen to Assistant GM Gavin Dickey during the game today. For whoever didn’t:

- Dickey said that he’s been with the org since 2011 and that Kevin Alvarez is possibly the most talented hitter he’s seen. Highlights that he just turned 18 last month, lives in elite launch angles, and what he’s been doing against competition 4-5 years older than himself is exciting. Declined to say where he’d start off at state side. Super high praise. You can tell they are very excited about Alvarez(I’ll also add that it seems way more sincere than some of the guys we’ve heard Dana rave about)
- *jokingly* Said they have to keep Dana Brown out of the meetings where they decide where to assign minor leaguers coming out of spring training(due to Dana’s aggressive nature to promote earlier)
- Highlights Ethan Frey’s hitting ability, plate presence, discipline, and athletic ability. Suggests they may give him a lot of run in CF.

 

Frey and Alvarez seem to be the prospects on the hype train this spring. Not hearing as much about Neyens.

 

Lucas Spence was one of only 6 players age 22 or younger in the entire minor leagues to post 30+ 2B, 25 SB, and a wRC+ of >120 last season. 3 of the others are Top 100 prospects.

 

Brice Matthews and Joseph Sullivan were 2 of only 10 players in the entire minors who had 15+ HR and 40+ SB last season.

 

If Sullivan carries this over into a long big league career, it will be a great story.

 

Walker Janek hit a 105 mph double in today’s game.