True. So are closers and now high leverage guys. Maybe openers and platoon pitchers (once through the order) too.
I have often wondered if a team could match up completely scheduling the pitching every inning and keeping pitchers to short outings. It would likely take more than 13 pitchers and from what I read MLB actually wants to reduce, not add to the pitching roster spots teams have. It just feels like that's where it is going- pitchers never face a lineup more than 1-2 times and how to manage that. 8 piggy back pitchers (S1-S8)alternate innings 1-3 and 4-6 every 4 games. 5 1 inning relievers (R1-R5) pitch the 7th, 8th, and 9th. (12 innings every 4 games) Game 1: S1 and S2, R1, R2, R3 Game 2: S3 and S4, R4, R5, R1 Game 3: S5 and S6, R2, R3, R4 Game 4: S7 and S8, R5, R1, R2 Game 5: S1 and S2, R3, R4, R5 Game 6: S3 and S4, R1, R2, R3 The relief pitchers are being used too often and would be wasted at the all star break. The piggy back starters need to pitch more innings since there are 8 of them and only 5 relief pitchers. I'm thinking. . .
I wasn't even close. The 8 piggy back starters are only getting 120 innings. And the relievers were getting over 100. No way. Bottom line is TOR starters need at least 160 innings and probably closer to 180-190 even if few get 200 anymore. If a team wants to limit exposure by reducing times he faces the lineup per start, he will need to start more often.
With the stupid rules for pitcher wins, and often max 2 times through the order for starters during the playoffs, does an opener become more acceptable to starting pitchers?
As for Jake Meyers - they tried to trade him to fill other needs and no one met that need on the market. it makes a lot of sense for him to be given the job in center to start the year. First he costs the Astros very little money and second he had a very good glove. I expect Espada to try very hard to put Jake in positions to excel. He is going to be in center every game against lefties, because he has hit lefties well in his career. He will likely also come into games against lefties in the pen. He will likely play over half the times against righties - but overall his OPS will likely be over .700 and you couple that with his glove and he is likely the starter. If he fumbles, the best prospects in the Astros system can play center.
Both McCormick and Myers have been mainstays with the Astros for a few seasons. I’m excited to see McCormick man LF for the next season and hopefully beyond that. Right off the bat he’d be amongst the top defensive LF’s. As for Myers, he hasn’t been the same after the injury. But I would think that this year will be telling if he can get back to the .800 + OPS many of us were anticipating from him. But he is a good defensive CF and should man the position with high competence. If the plan works out, LF and CF will be amongst the best bargains in ML in 2024.
Jake Meyers at .800 OPS is basically Michael Harris II with slightly better defense. An all star caliber player. That would be great to see.
I am rooting for Jake and have always been a fan but I think .800 is a bit above his ceiling. But good news is he doesn't need to be. Josh Reddick is probably a good comp of best case, though Jake has more speed and less arm. Reddick had exactly 1 season over .800 (2017) and about .747 for his career. If Meyers can get between .725 and .750 he will be a very very good 8th or 9th best player in the lineup.
2023 vs 2024 projected wRC+ ( PA) Bregman 125 (724 Pa) Tucker 140 (674) Pena 96 (634) Abreu 86 (594) Alvarez 170 (496) Dubon 97 (492) McCormick 133 (457) Altuve 154 (410) Maldonado 66 (407) Diaz 127 (377) Meyers 88 (341) Julks 80 (323) Hensley 9 (94) 2024 Tucker 143 (679) Bregman 130 (679) Altuve 127 (637) Pena 103 (637) Abreu 109 (616) Alvarez 169 (609) McCormick 106 (532) Diaz 117 (441) Meyers 91 (399) Dubon 95 (322) Caratini 100 (257) Singleton 100 (196) Kessinger 69 (70) Thoughts: 2023= only 6 players were 100+, 2024= 10 players projected 100+ 2023= 2 of top 4 and 3 of top 6 in PA were below 100, 2024=top 8 in PA all projected 100+ 2023= 2 of 9 w/ most PA under 90, 2024= only 13th guy at bottom of bench projected under 90. This team projects to be a much better offensive team than 2023.
The direction makes sense, but why would McCormick not be over 600 PAs, and why is Diaz only playing 2 out of 3 days? I would assume that on days Diaz isn’t catching, he is DHing, Yordan is in LF and McCormick in CF. But those are quibbles. My biggest concern with the offense is an injury in the IF. One we can mainly survive with Dubon (though replacing an130/127 with a 95 is painful) … but two simultaneously would be a disaster.
2022 vs 2024 projected GS / IP = ERA (FIP) 2023 Valdez 31 / 198.0 = 3.45 (3.50) Javier 31 / 162 0 = 4.56 (4.58) Brown 29 / 152 2 = 5.19 (4.37) France 23 / 133.0 = 3.92 (4.69) Bielak 13 / 70.2 = 3.69 (5.22) Verlander 11 / 68.0 = 3.31 (3.92) Urquidy 10 / 46.2 = 5.01 (5.03) Blanco 7 / 38.0 = 4.74 (6.91) Garcia 6 / 27.0 = 4.00 (3.63) Dubin 1 / 4.0 = 2.25 (4.01) 2024 Valdez 31 / 195.0 = 3.38 (3.46) Verlander 29 / 178.0 = 4.21 (4.31) Javier 29 / 162.0 = 4.67 (4.75) Brown 29 / 155.2 = 3.77 (3.79) France 18 / 102.0 = 4.66 (4.77) McCullers 15 / 84.0 = 4.10 (4.20) Urquidy 8 / 45.0 = 4.69 (4.74) Arrighetti 3 / 18.0 = 5.03 (5.17) Bielak 2 / 9.0 = 4.26 (4.36) Dubin 2 / 9.0 = 4.11 (4.23) thoughts: France, Bielak, Urquidy, and Blanco were all terrible and luck masked a lot of it. Luck is projected to run out this year and they won't be much better so the less the Astros rely on them, the better. Brown looked to be unlucky last year and projections favor a breakout to the 2nd best starter on the team this year. Verlander projects to take a small step back to #3 level starter after being somewhat lucky last year. Overall the projections have 2 solid (under 4.00 FIP) starters but 3-6 starters all project to be slight improvement over 2023. Once McCullers returns, they should be able to have a 5 deep rotation that does not rely on France, Urquidy, Bielak, Blanco.
Shuffling deck chair trades don't happen often, and when they do happen, they just don't help that much except if a team is willing to take the unproven part of the equation and hit it big. Most fans that tend to want shuffling deck chair trades typically whine about getting the unproven part. It surprises more that they tried to trade him (other than normal due diligence) than it does that they couldn't find a taker. I could see Meyers getting traded at deadline when it is more known what the Astros likely need for the postseason than now. Though, by then he will likely have either played well or not. Trading guys not playing well typically doesn't get much help, and teams contending typically don't trade guys that are playing well.
I agree that they have McCormick and Diaz's playing time down a bit. And I understand that giving Abreu more rest is the plan, but Singleton's playing time scares me. He DOES have the talent and could be a positive contributor but I am not confident. As for infield, I am higher on Kessinger than they are. I don't expect him to come in here and unseat someone, but I expect closer to a 90 and if needed, play that we as fans aren't unhappy with.
I think most of the projected wRC+ are likely pretty close. Exceptions are as follows: McCormick for the 4th straight time is projected to have a career worst year at the plate. A lot of this is regression to the mean, but a good portion of the regression is based on Dusty not playing him more. Typically, there is a reason guys aren't played more and as such, lack of PAs is a factor in projections. I would guess Chas would have had a projection of 110 wRC+ if Dusty didn't dick him around. Not too big a difference, but probably works out to about 0.3 or 0.4 fWAR. I think Diaz is going to have a great year. He might be the 2nd or 3rd best bat on the Astros. Singleton...I don't trust his bat. Kessinger.....I'd take the over. He might suck, but I think odds are good he's at least a below average hitter that is not that bad.
SP I look at 5 types of starters A)TOR #1-2s that are no doubt playoff starters B) MOR #3-4s that are possible playoff starters C) BOR #5-6s needed for 162 but no playoffs D) AAAA starters to fill in when needed. E) emergency only guys who should be avoided. I think ideally a team needs 120+ starts from A-B starters and 150+ from A-C starters. 12 or less from D starters and E as close to 0 as possible. Current roster: A) Framber, Verlander, McCullers B) Javier C) Brown, France, Urquidy, Garcia D) Bielak, Dubin, Arrighetti, Gordon E) Blanco By November, I see Javier with a chance to improve to an A. I see Brown, Arrighetti, Gordon, and possibly Garcia able to become Bs. Dubin Kay be able to become a C. I think JV and McCullers could potentially drop down to Bs and France may regress to a D. Starts based on Fangraphs projections: A) 75 B) 29 C) 55 D) 7 E) 0 I REALLY don't expect McCullers to get more than 10 starts (probably close to the 8 he got in 22), but do think he will be healthy and good when he does return. As it is constructed now, this team can be good if it makes the playoffs. In order to get through 162 g with enough wins though, I think either Brown needs to become a B or Arrighetti and/or Garcia need to be able to take 15+ of France and/or Urquidy's starts and pitch at a B level. This team is loaded w/ C types and a bit short on B types so one needs to step up or a trade needs to be made.
Part of it is that Brown seems to always dangle a certain number of players in trade that are important to the Astros, but not irreplaceable - with Meyers being one such player. They also were open to moving Urquidy this Winter. From what I have been told, it sounds like they either overestimated the market for Meyers - or they are just really aggressive. As for the Astros getting the unproven part, that doesn't seem to bother Brown based on the names I have heard that the Astros have targeted. Some are higher level minor leaguers that would be rookies and some are guys that only the very biggest fans have heard of.
5 silver slugger candidates: Diaz, Altuve, Bregman, Tucker, Alvarez 6 gold glove candidates: Bregman, Pena, McCormick, Meyers, Tucker, Dubon 2 Cy Young likely top 10: Valdez, Verlander 2 Cy Young potential top 10: Javier, Brown 1 reliever of the year candidate: Pressly 1 reliever even better: Abreu. Still tons to like about this team
