You have been watching Dusty manage games too long. You show symptoms of nostalgia and perhaps you have a case of soldiers heart. You have likely been shell shocked. It may be combat fatigue, or you could be suffering from Dusty induced PTSD. Trouble is no one had more exposure to to the source of your discomfiture than Espada. He was inundated every day for years. He probably is awakened by cold sweats and palpitations several times a night. There really is no way of knowing how badly he has been affected till we see him under the pressure of game management.
The problems with bringing back Brantley are: 1) he is almost certainly not signing for an amount the team can afford if it hopes to avoid the CBT and therefore get a better comp pick for losing Bregman. 2) He would take away a roster spot that is needed for a backup and 15-20% starter at 1B. Other than those 2 things I would be thrilled
1) the luxury tax is 237 mil. The Astros are projected to be at 244 mil after ARB signings so they're already 7 mil over. So they either need to make moves to reduce payroll to get below the 237 or realize they're over it and be willing to spend some more $$ to address the two biggest needs they currently have (another arm in the pen for high leverage situations and a reliable bat off the bench which Brantley would be) which would also address your 2nd concern. What other player on the roster gives them what Brantley could? They can like Meyers all they want but more then likely he just isn't going to hit enough which means moving Chas back to CF full-time (and having Dubon get a few starts in CF) which then means they need someone in LF that can handle the position when Yordan is at DH (and like last yr Brantley can also DH as well). Brantley showed he was healthy the last two weeks of Sept and the playoffs. Dusty just wasn't playing him. So they have a decision to make like I said above. Cut salary to get below the 237 threshold and if they do that they're addressing their needs with prospects and unproven players OR they bite the bullet and go with what they currently have (which again puts them over the 237) and are willing to spend another 17-20 mil to get someone like Brantley and another high leverage arm for the pen (someone like Neris) and call it a day.
I expect that before the season begins the Astros roster will be well under the second tier of the tax limit. Being slightly over the first is a very poor reason to spend up to the second. Again leaving no room to make adjustments at the break with even more dire consequences for going over at that time. There was a lesson provided by Diaz at catcher last season and by France and Brown and Pena and on and on that playing a Rookie is often a better solution than overspending on a deteriorating experienced player. Performing well with the added bonus of a future of growth beats watching an experienced player rot away in his final throes of decline.
I see multiple sites and since so much is estimated this time of year, nobody knows but by my math the team is at approx. $236.4M I think it is CRUCIAL for the future of this team that they either stay under the CBT in 2023 or resign Bregman. Brown proudly announced they were going to resign Bregman and keep him in Houston. Then reluctantly stated that he doesn't fit in the budget and will need to let him go. Staying under the CBT would be the only reason for that to be the case. Hecalready makes $20M so it will not be more than a $10M increase, likely a bit less.
Meyers is unlikely to hit well enough to satisfy most Astros fans. Considering the Astros are likely going to start the season with him, hitting like he did last season (about 12% below average) is likely good enough for him to stay in CF for the Astros when Alvarez/non-Chas player isn't in LF. He's likely going to have to hit worse than he did last year to lose PAs this coming season. This is possible. I'd put it in the 30% range. Maybe that's too big a risk for most, but not trying is choosing 100% that he doesn't work in CF. Caveat: I expect Diaz and Caratini are both going to be playing a lot against against RHPs. Not sure how Espada will split up the LF PAs when Caratini/Alvarez/Diaz are all in at once. As a side effect, I expect Meyers will get closer to 40% of his PAs versus LHPs instead of about 20% like last year.
I don't see Caratini as more than a backup catcher and insurance for Diaz. He had a 102 wRC+ vs RHP last year so that doesn't scream "you gotta get this bat in the lineup" Couple that with Diaz's 53 wRC+ vs RHP as a DH and that tells me there is no pressure to put Yordan in LF just to get both of those catcher's into the game. I really like the Caratini signing and fit for this team, but I don't expect him to be the reason Meyers or anyone else is on the bench. FTR, I fully expect Meyers to hit enough to start 120g this year= 120 wRC+ vs LHP, 92-95 wRC+ vs RHP. 18-20 HR/15 SB.
Sign one of Bregs, Tuck long term and hope Baez is ready come 2025 or re-sign Tucker and hope Decenzo is the guy. Regardless keep drafting arms, you can always trade pitching. Does Brown still carry the weight Luhnow did in Cuba/ Dominican? The Braves coming up with Acuna gives me hope.
Great post I'm hoping that the Stros get lucky and hit on a couple of bullpen pieces. If not trade at the deadline. What bothers.e is they came up short in pitching. If Crane isn't going to spend the money to bring in the starter they really need, then at least spend the money it takes to build an elite bullpen, even if that means having to give up prospects to get rid of Montero 's money and trading Urquidy to clear money. I bet Urquidy can bring a prospect that has value to help get rid of Montero's contract. Best thing we can hope for is Loperfido has a big year and becomes an above avg MLB player. Diaz can improve on last year, and in 2 years Baez will become the next star level every day player. Plus either LMJ or Garcia can give them 1/2 a season of elite starting pitching.
Me either, The love for a guy that is a avg MLB player at best simply amazes me. If Meyers hits over .250 I will be shocked.
Team A first half rotation: Framber, JV, Javier, Brown, France, Urquidy. second half rotation: Framber, JV, Javier, McCullers, Brown, Urquidy. 1B: Abreu, Singleton outfield: Chas, Meyers, Tucker. Team B first half rotation: JV, Javier, Brown, France, Urquidy. second half rotation: JV, Javier, McCullers, Brown, Urquidy. 1B: Abreu, MAX KEPLER outfield: MAX KEPLER, Chas, Meyers, Tucker. How many fewer games does team B win? 2? 5? How much does having a proven platoon starter in the OF who is above average vs RHP, is a legitimate RF in case Tucker gets hurt and can play 1B (played 76g there in minors, 3 in MLB) Worth vs the loss of Framber? Now what if team B also had: Twins 23 yr old SS/3b prospect Brooks Lee (mlbpipeline team #2 and overall #18 w/ 55 grade, fangraphs team #1 and overall #10 w/ 55 grade) and Twins 21 yr old SP prospect Marco Reya (mlbpipeline team #4 w/ 50 grade, fangraphs team #5 w/ 45+ grade) I know baseballtradevalues.com has to be taken w/ a grain of salt but they have Framber worth 49.4 and the haul the Astros get as 48.7 so they think it's pretty even and very slughtly favors the Twins. Oh, and by the way it's a savings of $2-3M in salary so likely takes the team back under CBT threshhold.
Probably several. In Team B, Javier and Brown are having to pitch deeper into games to replace Framber's innings, which means its more likely that they wear down. And McCullers has never actually met a projected timeline, so there's a decent chance he's unable to pitch, and even if he can pitch, he's yet another 5 inning type starter. So not only do you have worse pitching, you're also getting less innings, meaning your bullpen gets taxes more. But more importantly, if you're likely to lose 1 or 2 more games in the playoffs, your odds of winning the WS dramatically decreases. I'd much rather have Team A with the option of whoever proves least effective as a starter can move to the bullpen. We just won 2 World Series - one by having SP depth and moving several info the bullpen. The other by having the deepest RP core you could imagine. Next year's team isn't likely to have the deep RP core. And now we want to voluntarily weaken the SP depth so we can have a platoon player who's also a backup in case Tucker gets injured? We already have an outfield of Tucker, Yordan, and Chas/Meyers with Dubon as an additional universal sub. Is part-time OF depth really a priority over an ace? People were screaming all of last year that Chas needed to play more as it was.
Did you read my post? Max Kepler has played at least 70% of his teams games every year he has been in the league. He had a 121 wRC+ in 130g last year that broke down to 108 vs LHP and 128 vs RHP The only reason he would be a platoon starter is to allow Meyers to start vs LHP not because he is not good enough to start everyday.
