Our offense is finally coming into shape. We can argue about the Batter Box and Dusty's lineup every day, but the elephant in the room is our starting pitchers. Who do y'all currently have for our 4 starters? 1. Verlander 2. Valdez 3. ??? 4. ???
Game 1/5: Valdez Game 2/6: Verlander Game 3: Javier Game 4: Urquidy Long relief: France, Brown, Dubin Bullpen pecking order (highest leverage to lowest): Pressly, Abreu, Neris, Graveman, Maton, Montero Javier would be on a VERY short leash, with France ready to come in and throw 3-4 innings if needed. Same for Urquidy, I would have Hunter Brown set aside to be ready to throw 3-4 innings if Urquidy isn’t steady. Dubin would be the other arm capable of throwing multiple innings but would only be used in extra innings or when games were out of hand. Any game 7 would be all hands on deck but I’d probably start Javier annd only expect 2 innings.
Valdez Verlander Javier/Brown France/Urquidy Dusty's every game batting lineup, because why not: Altuve Pena Alvarez Bregman Tucker Abreu Brantley Dubon Maldy
Framber Verlander France Javier I think those 4 are absolute locks to start. 3 of em are no brainers, and I think you gotta go with Javier and hope for the best knowing he has the stuff and has been there before. He's on the shortest leash. Urquidy and Brown ready to come in as long relief if/when any hiccups happen. But who the **** knows with Dusty.
I trust all of them because Maldy is back there guiding them and I trust him to get them right. Spoiler
1. Framber 2. Bullpen game 3. Verlander 4. Bullpen Game 5-7 if necessary but probably will because we play at home: Framber , Verlander, Framber and dem
Maldy will start most playoff games. He will 100% catch Valdez and JV so that’s half right there. They may let Diaz catch game 3 and 4. And Diaz may come in mid game if Houston is losing.
It's pretty clear we're just gonna have to cobble together games 3 and 4 with the other 4 starters. None of them can really be trusted to make a full start at this point.
In order.... Javier France Brown They just need a 2-week vacation before the playoffs, but management doesn't seem interested. Might have to tandem in a game ala '17 ALCS and WS Game 7's. Urquidy might can slide in before France.
Maldy will definitely catch 3 of the 4 games, guaranteed. Diaz will catch the 4th game, and be a pinch hitter if needed for Maldy in late innings if needed for the first 3 games. If Dusty gets his way in the playoffs, Dubon will start 2 of the games (JV and Javier) and maybe 3 if France starts. I'm putting in hope FO/Dana will overrule Dusty and have McCormick start all playoffs like last year. This is to save Dusty from his senile decisions, and prevent him from costing the Astros in the playoffs.
First off, the last 3-4 years should not bias expectations for this postseason. This team is more like the 2020 and 2017 teams given the defense and pitching being more top 5-10 rather than being in the top 3. The offense has to carry them, and a starter giving you 5-6 innings with 2-3 runs allowed would be a +. Top 3 have to be Valdez, JV and then Javier in order. All 3 could throw up an egg, but they are the best bets to throw a gem. Plus the early rounds of the playoffs won't faze any of them given their experience. I don't understand the love for Urquidy. I wouldn't have him on the playoff roster right now if they had bodies to replace him. He hasn't had it all season, and I don't think he will find it given the injury/recovery timeline and the time in the year. Maybe if it had all happened pre ASB; not now. France should be 4th starter, or to replace Javier if he totally falls off by playoff time. I know JP was hit hard in 2 recent games, but he has been solid for most of the season. Not great, but good. He will normally give you 2 times through the order keeping the Astros in the game. That is enough. I know Brown has also been hit hard since the ASB, but he was in a good groove to start the year. He will likely get a breather in Oct, as he wouldn't start in the WC round either due to # of games or (hopefully) a bye, and a favorable ALDS scheduling dates. That rest could really help him. Plus more often than not, he comes off the rails by the 3rd time through the order. Only issue is that most potential playoff teams have hit him hard (Baltimore, Seattle, Arlington). Would need a conversation with the tape and analytics guys to see if they are picking up something in delivery or if he is favoring certain pitches/locations. Also, this is the year to consider using an opener, probably in a H. Brown start, but even for France/Valdez or against specific teams depending on the analytics guys.
I think Verlander gets the ball in Game 1. Yes, he is technically a mid-season trade acquisition, but for all intents and purposes he is the most tenured starter. I also feel like he's just better suited for starting the opener given his experience, and mentality. Framber Valdez then pitches Game 2. After, I think it's likely Javier and France. Urquidy and Brown to the bullpen - they've done it before. France has been consistent outside two bad starts (Cubs and Red Sox at home). Javier is the most likely to "find it" and I am cautiously optimistic he will. I think Dusty puts Javier in front of France because of experience.
I think it's gotta be (in no particular order), Framber, JV and France. France normally would be like #4 or #5 in a playoff rotation , but with the suckage of Javier then France it is. A shame because that's a lot of pressure on a rookie to help try and salvage a WS run but it is what it is. Let's pray the rosary and play ball brothers.
France is 28 so he seems to be a bit more mature than your typical rookie. Plus, as Dana Brown says, he's got the stomach for this!! As far as this season goes, France is our best option for the #3 starter spot in the playoffs.
