If you take away his starts against the Nationals this year, he has an ERA under 2.70... He's actually been pretty effective against every other team outside a few blowups. The only real concern is if his shoulder is intact. I think Astros find a way to use him out of pen, come postseason, if acquired.
If the Astros just gave Morton the deal he wanted... we wouldn't be needing to hand prospects over to another team for a deadline deal. You'd have Verlander, Morton, McCullers, and Miley (Maybe) for 2020 with a plethora of other prospects. Clearly our biggest regret so far.
There is no way the Astros can put together a competitive package for Thor (assuming that Alvarez won't be traded) without offering one of Whitley and Tucker. BVW would be fired if he traded Thor without netting even one top 100 prospect. It would be malpractice.
Did you not just see Stroman, a pitcher nearly as valuable as Syndergaard, traded for 2 non-top 100 pitchers?
And Luhnow would not trade Top 25 prospects for a guy with the injury concerns of Thor. More likely, Mets wanted one of Tucker or Whitley, and Astros said no. Astros made offer without those two, and Mets said no. Astros do not look like a good fit for Thor unless Mets like someone besides those 2 or Astros have soured on one of those 2 big time.
I love how the national media overvalues the Mets starting rotation. They have a terrible pitching staff. 11th in the NL in ERA. Syndergaard and Wheeler have 4.33 and 4.71 ERAs respectively. Yet the national media says they have the best rotation in the league. LMAO! DeGrom is good, and that's about it. The Astros have no fifth starter and yet have the 4th best ERA in baseball at 3.77.
The two aren't very comparable - Stroman is not as good of a pitcher as Thor and is not controlled through 2021. Thor's surplus value is probably more than double Stroman's, which means the headlining prospect will need to be in the 55-60 FV range. How do you get to $60M in trade value with JBB headlining the deal?
If you value those 2nd tier guys appropriately (meaning Bukauskas, Toro, Beer, etc are worth $10-20M apiece), you can quickly get to the ~$30-40M in surplus value that Syndergaard has.
The same way you get Luhnow to trade a Top 25 prospect (i.e., someone's value is much different than public perception).
I think you are greatly undervaluing Thor and greatly overvaluing JBB, Toro, and Beer. Here is a timely piece today on the subject of what it would take to land Thor: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-noah-syndergaard/
Morton didn't exactly end last year on a strong note. There were plenty of doubts about whether or not he was worth a multi-year deal at the time. Obviously we probably regret the decision now, but I think the Astros made a prudent decision at the time.
That is true, but I think trying to sell guys like JBB, Beer, etc., is a bridge too far even when accounting for the idiosyncrasies of each org. JBB has struggled this season and will likely end up as a reliever. Beer is a bat only player that hasn't had success above the Texas league yet. Toro has had a great year but he doesn't have much a pedigree.
