Yeah, but three of them (including the named storm Gabrielle) look to be no threat at all to the USA and it is way too early to tell on the 4th.
Pressure 911mb. Just, wow. Hearing from the storm chaser who stayed there, if it wasnt for the eye and the super slow movement hundreds more might have died. It gave them time to get out, find injured and stranded and helped so many find better shelter before the 2nd part of the storm.
Keep an eye on 38. It's due to cross FL and emerge in the Gulf next week. Gabrielle Tropical Storm Gabrielle is located about 785 miles west-northwest of the Azores. It currently has winds near 50 mph. The system is accelerating northeastward and losing its tropical characteristics. It may become fully extratropical by later this morning. It is expected to continue weakening over the next few days as it tracks into the northern Atlantic. Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 38 is roughly along 71W, to the north of Hispaniola, and moving to the west at 10 mph. Associated shower and thunderstorm activity has increased over the last 24 hours. The system is expected to enhance rainfall over the Bahamas through Friday. By Friday and into Saturday, the disturbance is expected to cross over Florida and into the eastern Gulf of Mexico. At this time, no development is expected through Saturday. By early next week, the system may encounter more favorable conditions over the Gulf of Mexico. There is uncertainty regarding the forecast early next week. The chance of development is estimated to be 30 percent. Disturbance 39 remains very near the west coast of Africa. The disturbance is drifting slowly to the west. It is expected to begin moving faster over the next few days. The system has decent atmospheric rotation and some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Conditions will be somewhat favorable for gradual development over the next week. By Monday, it could be near or over the Lesser Antilles. The chance of development over the next 7 days is 30 percent. Disturbance 37 is along 46W. Satellite wind data indicate that there is a weak surface circulation. Meanwhile, there has been an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity. These trends can be a harbinger of potential development and should be monitored closely. However, the disturbance is approaching a hostile upper-level wind environment that will likely begin to weaken the system in about 24-36 hours. Current computer model guidance also indicates weakening due to the shear. The system has a slight (20 percent) chance of development before it begins to weaken sometime tomorrow.
Active Systems None Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch Disturbance 38 is roughly along 75W and moving to the west-northwest near 12 mph. Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with the system. Associated atmospheric rotation has also increased. High wind shear is expected to limit the development potential through Friday. The system will enhance shower and thunderstorm activity over the Bahamas through Friday or Saturday. By Saturday, the disturbance is expected to track across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Environmental conditions in the Gulf of Mexico are expected to be moderately favorable for development. Therefore, the system may develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm prior to moving ashore between the Florida Panhandle and Louisiana on Sunday or Monday. It is worth mentioning that there is uncertainty regarding the track forecast due to the system not being fully formed yet. The chance of development is 50 percent. Disturbance 39 is along 20W. It is moving slowly to the west. The system is very disorganized though does contain some modest rotation. A continued westward motion is expected over the next 5 days. By Monday, the disturbance may be near or over the Lesser Antilles. It is during the early part of next week that the system may find itself under more favorable conditions. In about 6-7 days, the system could track near Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and the southern Bahamas. The chance of development is 30 percent. Disturbance 37 is along 50W. The system is steadily weakening as it tracks west-southwest. Development chances are decreasing due to the disturbance approaching less favorable conditions. There is a chance that it could dissipate before being able to reach the Lesser Antilles. The chance of development is 10 percent.
Current Location: 22.3N, 74.5W Geographic Reference: Over southeast Bahamas Movement: West-northwest at 8 mph Max Winds: 30 mph gusting to 40 mph Current Hurricane Severity Index: 0 out of a possible 50 points (0 size, 0 intensity) Max Predicted Hurricane Severity Index: 3 out of a possible 50 points (1 size, 2 intensity) Current Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 0 miles Max Predicted Radius of Tropical Storm-Force Winds: 65 miles Organizational Trend: Increasing very slowly Forecast Confidence: Average Chance of Development: 65 percent Key Points 1. Disturbance 38 is likely to become a tropical depression or a tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico. 2. The greatest threat is to the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico. 3. The main impact onshore will be heavy rainfall and possible severe weather. Disturbance 38 is slowly becoming better organized in the southeast Bahamas. Moderate to strong wind shear should prevent any rapid organization. Instead, the system is expected to very gradually organize over the next several days. When the system moves into the eastern Gulf of Mexico this weekend, it is likely to become a tropical depression. The forecast is then for it to reach low-end tropical storm intensity before moving onshore over the northern Gulf coast. There are no indications from the models at this time that this disturbance will become a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico. The current west-northwest motion should continue for the next few days. This is expected to take the disturbance toward South Florida by late Friday and then into the Gulf on Saturday. Once in the Gulf, a more northwesterly motion is expected. There is some uncertainty with regards to the point of landfall along the Gulf Coast. Landfall could be anywhere from the mid Louisiana Coast through the eastern Florida Panhandle. At this time, we are indicating a landfall along the coast of Alabama. This is a compromise of the model guidance. Confidence will increase as to the precise landfall location once a well-defined center forms later this week. Expected Impacts on Land Northern Gulf Coast: The greatest threat will be flooding from heavy rainfall. Scattered power outages are also likely near where the system makes landfall. Expected Impacts Offshore Southeast Louisiana Deepwater Lease Areas: The first squalls could reach the deepwater lease areas off of Southeast Louisiana by late Saturday or early Sunday. Waves in the 10 to 15 foot range are possible for the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico on Sunday and Monday. Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast to remain east of the deepwater lease areas off of Louisiana.
See...I predicted Alabama was going to get hit. I am right again. No one knows the future better than me. - DJT
I want a freaking tropical depression bad. My yard has had like 2 inches of real rain water not coming out of sprinkler heads since like July. Sick of the $200 water bills. Summer can die off already. Nobody likes you now.
