Gut feeling is Keuchel, Gattis, and Marwin are all gone. Keuchel is going to chase the money and we'd only bring him back on a 1 or 2 year deal, IMO. Marwin is looking at very diminished ABs again, so I think he'll sign with a team where is more likely to play. I only see Gattis coming back if he's going to spend time at catcher.
yeah, I agree with that. If the FO thinks they need to sign one of either marwin/gattis it seems to me like you would have a much better idea of Gattis' production per dollar spent, which would make it easier to pay him. Marwin could be more valuable, but I wouldn't want to overpay him as a utility guy with mediocre offensive production.
Free agency has been pretty cruel to non-elite players, and even more cruel to elite players coming off of a down year. As it stands I think Keuchel is going to be severely disappointed if he expects a 10 figure deal. He’s pitching like a good #3, and that combined with a QO, a loaded free agent market, and only half the teams trying to win will quash his value. I sense there’s some level of bad blood, but outside factors may assist a reunion. But I still think he’s gone. 30/70. Marwin is also having a down year, which would aid a return on a short deal. And he’s good friends with Altuve. And he’s a very high floor player. 50/50. Sipp ain’t coming back. 10/90. McCann is hard to predict. We will know a lot more about the odds of him coming back based on how the front office addresses the catching situation over the rest of this season. I could definitely see him coming back on a 1 or 2 year deal if they think he still has something left and they believe in Stassi as the starter (and McCann doesn’t ask for very much money). 40/60. Teams aren’t paying DHs these days. So Gattis won’t make more than $10M next season and won’t get more than 2 years. So he will fit in the budget. And I think he is well liked. It will boil down to what Luhnow thinks of the other DH options (both internal and external). 50/50. Morton has the best chance of returning. I think they want to pay him. I think he wants to stay. He’s a reasonable guy who values the chance Houston took on him. 65/35.
One wonders if they see Kemp as a potential utility player to replace Marwin. Guess we will find out by trade deadline.
Remember when Bregman said, and I paraphrase “.. some Day we will look back in disbelief and say all those guys were on the same team?”
Generally agree. Gattis will be interesting, though. I'm not sure others will see him as anything other than a DH. I could see him being fairly cheap to bring back. Otherwise, the Astros can consider the Tyler White / AJ Reed / Tony Kemp / Derek Fisher group (with knowledge of being able to purchase a bat at the trade deadline if they fail), or can look for free agent reclamation projects, and also have Yordan Alvarez on the horizon.
Doesn't have the arm to do it. What makes Marwin so valuable is he can play SS/3B in addition to the other spots that Kemp can play. Kemp will never be able to play 3B or SS. I like Kemp more than most, think his on base skills are legit and that has great value, I hope he is around for quite a while. I just don't see the comparison with those two. If they really feel ok with Yuli playing 3B, they could spread the "utility player" skills around a bit possibly, Bregman could play SS when Correa is out or needs a day off, Yuli plays the corner infield spots, Kemp plays some 2B and OF....the more Marwin struggles though, the more likely it is that he sticks around, he isn't trending towards a big contract, or a full time role with another winning team
I think Harris isn't back and the Astros move McHugh for an asset unless he becomes the primary set up man. At that point I think they would try to move Giles. Regardless, I agree with your sentiment, the Astros are not going to spend $40,000,000 on their bullpen with financial needs at other spots and the kind of depth they have in the upper minors.
I thought they were moving McHugh this year. I can't imagine that they didn't try. I have to imagine that there was just nobody willing to give value for him out there. This whole concept of half the teams not actively trying to win is good for Houston on one end and bad on another end. We have guys in the minors knocking down the doors to get up, and a bunch of useful players for a team that's looking to be competitive in the short term and plug some holes. Basically, what the Pirates did. But nobody seems to value winning 75 or 80 games anymore (I get it- the Astros showed why you shouldn't- but you used to be able to convince teams that there was value to having a McHugh as a 2nd starter for example and not embarassing yourself). Now, that just doesn't seem to be the case. I don't see anyone that the Astros would be willing to trade on the 25 man roster getting any kind of value from a second division club, even though they have pieces on the 25 and 40 that deserve to play elsewhere. But a team like Cincy doesn't want a guy like Tony Kemp, or Colin McHugh, or Brad Peacock, or Reed/Davis/White/Fisher. I feel like there should be some sort of deal possible with the Mets in a consolidation trade, but I don't know their holes or what they are trying to do. Would they be helped by Fisher/Reed/White/Kemp/McHugh/Peacock/Harris/Giles? I don't mean literally all of them, but all those guys can play in the majors. I mean, I don't think they have the roster spot to do a 7/1 or anything for deGrom, and would want some higher end talent, obviously, but if you sen that group out you might get 15 WAR out of that next year, and none of them would likely be below replacement, and it'd cost you only about $20,000,000.00. for all 8. You could actually do Fisher/REed/White/Kemp and then pick a pitcher and you'd have 5 players on your 25 man roster, none of them likely to be terrible, for at most what, $8 or $9 million total? And probably 5-10 War? I mean, that's dirt cheap on the WAR market, but I don't get the sense anyone is looking to be ok, meh, average, or even decent right now. Odd time in baseball. It helps, of course, by depressing prices in free agent market and trade market, and it helps in the win column when you got a month or two at a time and the best team you are playing is an OK Oakland A's team.
Would like Morton & Sipp back on 1yr deals. McCann and Marwin are gone. Gattis I’m unsure of, Astros have options at DH
Gattis is all about price. We have potential replacements, but if he's going to sign for something like 1/8 or 2/14 or something like that then I'm fine with rolling him back out there again. Like the versatility of him being a 3rd catcher in an emergency situation as an added little bonus to roster construction. But, at some level the Astros have to start opening up some spots for the guys down on the farm. I'm ok with all of them (other than Morton) walking if it goes that direction. McCann Marwin Keuchel Morton Gattis Currently they make what- about $40,000,000 this year? I wouldn't want to see more than about $20,000,000 for 2019 invested in those guys, and I wouldn't want to see any of them extended beyond 2 years (I'd give Morton 3 if he wanted it).
Now that the deadline has passed, figured I'd look at the free agent class and see who Houston might sign. They will definitely need a SP, a C, and maybe a bat and RP. Free agents of interest: C: Brian McCann, Yasmani Grandal, Kurt Suzuki, Wilson Ramos, Tyler Flowers, Jonathan Lucroy, Devin Mesoraco Elite position players: Manny Machado, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, AJ Pollock 2nd tier bats: Andrew McCutchen, Nick Markakis, Daniel Murphy, Michael Brantley, Nelson Cruz, Evan Gattis, Carlos Gonzalez, Neil Walker, Brian Dozier 3rd tier bats: Adrian Beltre, Matt Adams, David Freese, Joe Mauer, Steve Pearce, Curtis Granderson, Matt Joyce, Lucas Duda, Justin Smoak, Lonnie Chisenhall, Adam Jones, Mike Moustakas Utility guys: Marwin Gonzalez, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jed Lowrie, Logan Forsythe Interesting has-beens: Jose Bautista, Hunter Pence, Victor Martinez, Pablo Sandoval ToR SP: Clayton Kershaw, Dallas Keuchel, Patrick Corbin 2nd tier SP: Gio Gonzalez, JA Happ, Marco Estrada, Drew Pomeranz, Garrett Richards, Cole Hamels, Nathan Eovaldi, CHarlie Morton 3rd tier SP: Tyson Ross, Hyn-Jin Ryu, Lance Lynn, Brandon McCarthy Closers: Zach Britton, Cody Allen, Andrew Miller, Craig Kimbrel, Kelvin Herrera, Jeurys Familia, David Robertson, AJ Ramos 2nd tier RP: Brad Brach, Jake Diekman, Justin Wilson, Joakim Soria, Greg Holland, Brad Ziegler, Fernando Rodney If they don't trade for Realmuto, and if McCann comes back healthy/productive this season, a 1 year deal for McCann makes sense. Otherwise, Grandal, Suzuki, or Ramos would be a solid 2nd catcher to pair with Stassi (although only Grandal hits lefty). Given the number of quality bats available, Houston should have no problem securing a good hitter to replace Gattis (or bring back Gattis). I personally am ok having Gurriel and Tyler White take over Marwin's role of backing up 1B/2B/3B and using Bregman as the backup SS, so I don't think they need to bring back Marwin or another utility guy unless the price is very low. Carlos Gonzalez might make sense on a 1-2 year deal to DH and play LF if Tucker isn't ready. I also like Neil Walker and think he will rebound next season. Matt Adams has a connection to Luhnow and he played a lot of LF this season for Washington. I'd also be fine bringing back Gattis although I don't like his defensive limitation and inconsistent offensive production. They can take some risk on bringing in a high ceiling low floor DH type because they will have guys like Yordan Alvarez, AJ Reed, JD Davis, and Derek Fisher waiting in AAA. I wouldn't bet against bringing back Morton; it just seems to make too much sense for both sides. With him and Whitley the rotation would be set. But Hamels, Happ, Pomeranz, and Gio Gonzalez would make great 5th SP if Morton retires or goes elsewhere; one of those guys is going to end up taking a really cheap deal. I'm ready to take the draft pick and let Keuchel go. While Houston's bullpen sets up to be extremely good next season after adding Pressly and Osuna, there are just too many good relievers on the free agent market. Britton, Allen, Kimbrel, Miller, Herrera, Familia, Robertson, Ramos, Holland, Soria, and Rodney all have extensive closing experience, and there's no way they'll all land big contracts. Houston can wait out the market and snag one to form a super bullpen. Current guess for 2019 OD 40 man roster: CF Springer 3B Bregman 2B Altuve SS Correa LF Tucker 1B Gurriel RF Reddick DH Neil Walker* ($3M/1yr) C McCann ($6M/1yr) Bench: White, Stassi, Kemp Rotation: Verlander, Cole, McCullers, Morton ($30M/2yr), Whitley Bullpen: McHugh, Peacock, Smith, Devenski, Pressly, Rondon, Osuna, Britton* ($38M/3yr) AAA: Stubbs*, Reed, Davis, Straw*, Fisher, Martes, Thornton*, Armenteros*, Dykxhoorn*, C Perez, Guduan, F Valdez*, James*, Deetz, Ferrell* Traded: Marisnick, Harris DFA: Rodgers, Boshers, Gustave That roster would push payroll up around $180M, which would be high and very likely near the top of what they can afford, but still would only fit in the 6-10 range in the league, which shouldn't be unrealistic. Verlander and Cole would represent $30M+ coming off the books after 2019.
If I were a betting man, I think Morton remains an Astro for a few more years, I think the 2/$30M you threw out there is fair and reasonable for both sides. HOWEVAH, I think McCann is Brave next year. He alluded to going back to finish his career, and they have a young and talented team, where he could win as well. My hopes of Realmuto are still alive, but I could see them resigning Maldonado, and running a duo of Stassi/Maldonado, although I wouldn't be thrilled about that. You are right, we probably look to upgrade at DH, and Michael Brantley would be damn nice in an Astros uniform. AJ Pollock probably outperforms his contract, if he stays healthy (that is what insurance is for right), even though he will cost a lot. As you mentioned, if the Pressly and Osuna acquisitions both pan out, we are set and have an elite bullpen. So I'd prefer to spend my $13M on Brantley instead of Britton.
The team cost control is going to be tricky. And getting the young guys who are up and coming to perform well will be critical. Because the payroll is going to be high. Veterans always get paid, even when they give hometown discounts. I really enjoy watching Keutchel pitch, but he rightfully should go for a big payday. And the Astros are loaded with pitchers with talent both on the ML and the minors who are getting ready for the show. So I doubt the Astros give him the type of contract he deserves, relatively speaking. Even though I’d be excited if they gave him a nice contract to retain him on the team. Altuve and Keutchel personafide the face of the mad experiment that Luhnow and co. undertook. These two Guys from the prior regime who were given the keys by Luhnow to learn on the fly to be superstars! And they managed to win the 2017 title.... An MVP and a Cy young award respectively...
The main reasons I think Keuchel will end up elsewhere: There’s no way Houston will be able to keep all of their homegrown stars and Keuchel easily falls behind Correa, Bregman, and Springer in the pecking order behind Altuve. Keuchel has seemed to have a contentious relationship with the front office, being openly critical of them at various stages. His next contract is likely going to be a bad value for whichever team signs him. Houston has several potential replacements ready, led by Forrest Whitley.
Why do we want McCann back? He's only getting older, more injury prone, and he's only hitting .206 this year
I think there are avenues where Keuchel ends up staying. It's very possible a 4-5 year deal could be struck and he's talked about the team environment and such. That contract would fall off at a good time with Bregman contract coming into play. I think he leaves only if a team MASSIVELY outbids Astros.
