I hope we don't resign any of these 4. Money would be better spent on locking up Correa, Springer, etc.
Do you have any numbers on revenues for the Astros nowadays? Are their primary avenues ticket sales and media rights?
He is now. But AJ and Yordan's stats were pretty similar thus far through AA. It does look like Yordan's overall hitting approach is more advanced to AJ's.
I don’t think they disclose revenue numbers, but you can look at the attendance and use that along with what we know about their tv deal etc and approximate what kind of payroll they should be able to afford.
I think he is a better prospect. But AJ was one of the top prospects in baseball at one point. He got exposed in the majors and it seems he has had trouble adjusting. These prospects tend to get humbled quickly in the majors.
There were worries about Reed's bat speed and athleticism the whole time - when he came up those were exposed. I'm not sure of any glaring weaknesses in Alvarez's batting approach and he's only 20. In fact what I've heard is "easy power" and "crazy athletic." Dude looks like a stud.
Marwin is likely gone, will probably want to play everyday as a starter. He probably will get Zobrist type money on a 4 or 5 year deal since he's only turning 30. I'd expect $12M-14M in average annual value. I'll say 4 years $52M. Gattis is interesting, I'd expect Mark Trumbo's 3 yr $37.5M deal to be his comp which he got after a 47hr year. I'll say something like 3 years $33M. DK will probably still get around $20M. Darvish got 6 years $126M, had TJ, and came off a terrible playoffs. I think DK, who has been relatively free of arm or elbow issues and relies more on accuracy and timing, could get a rare 7 year deal. I think teams will shy away from giving more than 5 or 6 years from now on, but someone will bite and do 7 years $140M. Charlie is also an interesting case since his turnaround and his talk of retiring. Whoever signs him will need to get creative, maybe like a 1 year deal with vesting player options if he hits a certain amount of innings. I'll say 1 year, $15M with a 2 player options he can exercise if he hits 150 innings. So if we were to sign these guys, it would add $28M from their 2018 salaries. I'd like to keep Morton, Gattis is pretty consistent for .250/30hrs so for $11m for a short contract, that's pretty attractive. If DK leaves and Morton retires, we can move McHugh back into the rotation and bring up either Whitley, Cionel, or maybe even Josh James.
One interesting thing about 2019 is that as it stands, the 7 returning bullpen arms will cost over $40M. Peacock (~$5M), McHugh (~$7M), Devenski (~$4M), and Giles (~$7M) will all get substantial raises in arbitration, Rondon ($4.5M) and Smith ($8M) have guaranteed contracts, and Harris has a team option for $6M. That seems like an awful lot to tie up in the bullpen of team with as good of pitching depth in the upper minors as Houston has. I wouldn't be surprised to see Harris or Giles traded to free up payroll for an extension or acquisition of a starting pitcher or position player. It just seems like for a team that can field a max of $170M in payroll, putting more than $40M into the bullpen seems like a misuse of funds, especially with high ceiling arms like Paulino, James, Ferrell, Deetz, C Perez, and others knocking on the door.
I agree with some of your takes, but others I don't. I got scolded a while back for saying Marwin would get 4yrs/52 million... I actually think that figure has dropped substantially. He needed to have another good year and/or a better one to obtain that kind of contract. I think he's around the price of what Cozart received this past year if he's lucky, maybe less (which is a plus for the Astros if they decide to keep him). BUT with Kemp's resurgence, he's expendable. How expendable is the key because I believe he's an integral part of the clubhouse. Gattis is a lock to stay in my eyes unless someone VASTLY overpays. I've never understood the lack of love for the man on this forum. With Gattis, what you see is what you get. I love that about the man and the players in the clubhouse love him. We are going to be hard pressed to find another DH (can catch if need be) who produces at the rate he does and for the contract he will probably get. LOCK IMO. DK? No way he gets 7 years, 140 million... and if that's the case... "he gone". That contract situation can last until Feb/Mar much like Arrieta and with less pay. I can see Astros offering 5 yrs/85-90 million take it or leave it. CFM can stay if he wants, I doubt he goes to another team at this point in his career and will likely retire an Astro. I can definitely see him retiring after this year if we win another ring or the year after. I'm sure Luhnow will figure something out. NOW i hear a lot of chat on keeping the core in tact and I get it. But people seem to forget all the contracts falling off this next year and the year after... that money be re-allocated to Correa/Springer/Bregman and I can see a scenario where they take a little less to keep this baby going IF we win another ship. Time will tell. If I had to put money on a player leaving then it would be Bregman because I think he's starting to turn into a star and that would just be crazy expensive sadly.
Unless they feel they have another Cole type of deal, I think Peacock or Whitley replace DK in the rotation next year. Peacocks numbers were just as good starting last year as relieving the past two years, McHugh has been much better as a reliever than he ever was starting. I could see McHugh having a more important pen role though I think there is a decent chance Giles is moved, has been good closing games and as good of an arm as anyone, but a change of scenery might do him ( and us) some good. I wouldn’t be shocked if he is moved before the deadline
Agree completely on Marwin and Gattis I see no way we offer Keuchel even what you mention, I that 17 million a year is earmarked for keeping the core together. With Peacock, Whitley and all the other arms in the system I think this is it for DK I actually think they can and will keep the core four studs here, but if we lose one I would bet on it being Correa before Bregman.
I don't know how many we could feasibly sign of the 4, but for argument's sake i will pick 2 of 4. Keep: Morton, Gattis Trade: Keuchel, Gonzalez
While I don't think it's the right thing to do for a team contending for a title... if you want to get cute... trade Keuchel for prospects... he could fetch a good return. Note... I would never have the balls to do it.
Oh, nvm. If their contracts are up at the end of this year, duh. But those are who I would let go. Unless marwin proves me wrong and picks up his offensive production. Which is a possibility. Agree? Disagree?
Keuchel is gone. I would see what Marwin/Gattis want/can get and if the price/years are right...but I'm not sure they bring either back.
