[2018 Lebron FA Watch] Houston Recruiting & Cap Magic

Silver lining of a Rockets loss.....I think we're in the lead to snag LBJ this off season.

Feel free for cap experts to adjust the numbers and CBA rules. I’ll update it with more accurate info as I get more information. But this is what I gathered so far from the numbers.

Scorched Earth: Using Cap Space Route
Requirements
- CP3, LBJ, Ariza all have to take pay cuts
- Using 2019 & 2021 1st Rounders
- Release Right & Cap Holds to CP3 & Ariza
- Lose LMM, Nene, Gordon, Ryno,

Trade Out to Clear Cap Space
- Eric Gordon: Get back (No Salary in Return) and maybe 2nd rounder
- Ryan Anderson: Attached (Pick from Ego Trade + 2019 and 2021 Hou 1st's) for no salary back
- Nene, Onuaku for No Salary Back (Attach 2nd Rounders or Cash if Need Be)

Remaining Salary Against Cap
- James Harden ($30,421,854)
- PJ Tucker ($7,969,537)
- Zhou Qi ($1,378,242)
- Clint Capela ($7,003,584 Cap Hold)
- 8 Incomplete Roster Charges @ $831,311 each ($6,650,488)

Total Cap Space Used: $53,423,705
Cap Space Available: $47,576,295 ($101m estimated cap)
Room Exception: $4,544,400

Signings
- CP3 & LBJ split $47,576,295
- Match Clint up to Max
- Ariza for $4,544,400 (Room Exception)

Starting 5 Roster
- James Harden ($30,421,854)
- LBJ ($28m)
- CP3 ($19.6m)
- Capela ($25m)
- PJ Tucker ($7,969,537)

Bench
- Ariza (4.5m)
- Zhou Qi ($1,378,242)
- Gerald Green ($1.6m Vet Min)
- 5 More Required Roster Spots ($6-8mVet Mins & Buyout Candidates)

Total Salary
$124-127m

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Above the Cap Route (Trade w/ Cleveland) + Match Capela + Using Taxpayer MLE
Requirements:
- Using 2019 & 2021 1st Rounders
- CP3 & Ariza take pay cuts
- Cleveland engaging Opt-in & Trade with LBJ


Trade Out
- Eric Gordon: Get back Early 2nd + expiring or NGT’d
- PJ Tucker: Get back Early 2nd + expiring or NGT’d
- Ryan Anderson attached (Picks from Ego & Tucker Trade + Hou 2019 1st) for expiring of NGT’d
- Nene, Onuaku: Attach Hou 2nd Rounders + No Salary Back
- NGT’d + Expiring + Hou 2021 1st Rounder for (LBJ) + Option to take PJ or Ego

Starting 5 Roster
- James Harden ($30,421,854)
- LBJ ($35,607,968)
- CP3 ($28m)
- Ariza ($8m using bird rights)
- Capela ($25m)

Bench Roster
- LMM (5.45m - Tax PayerMLE)
- Zhou Qi ($1,378,242)
- Gerald Green ($1.6 - Vet Min)
- 4 More Required Roster Spots (Vet Mins & Buyout Candidates - $3-5m)

Total Salary
$138-140m


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Above the Cap Route (Trade w/ Cleveland) + Let Capela Go/Sign another Center using Non-Tax MLE (Triggering Hard capping at $129m)
* If you assume we don’t match Capela and let him walk or trade him for an asset

Starting 5 Roster
- James Harden ($30,421,854)
- LBJ ($35,607,968)
- CP3 ($35.6m)
- PJ Tucker ($7,969,537)
- DJ (or other Center) - $8m MLE

Bench Roster
- Ariza ($5m)
- Zhou Qi ($1,378,242)
- Gerald Green ($1.6 - Vet Min)
- 4 More Required Roster Spots (Vet Mins & Buyout Candidates - $3.3m)

Total Salary
$129m Hard Cap (Luxury Tax Line + $6m)

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Summary of Difference
- All scenarios assume (Trading Ryno, Ego & parts + Picks) (Capela gets $25m max contract)
- Under the Cap you lose only either Ariza or LMM, but LBJ & CP3 have to take significant cuts
- Over the Cap you lose PJ Tucker and either Ariza or LMM, but only CP3 has to take a significant cut
- Letting Capela walk, but you keep Tucker, Ariza (lose LMM) and CP3 gets his max too

If LBJ & CP3 are willing to take $5-10m less per year, the bench is stronger (Keeping PJ & Ariza) and we’re not hard capped

If LBJ what’s his max, CP3 has to take a pay cut and we lose depth (Losing PJ)

If LBJ and CP3 want max contracts, we could only sign Clint to a max if we literally fill out the rest of the roster spots with g-league players with 0 years of experience in the league.

 

And for those of you $%!^ing on harden, he came up small but was the only star on the court for the rockets. CP3 and LBJ have the mental fortitude to take this team over the top. I don't trust Harden's mental resilience, but he's the workhorse that gets you buckets and wins. But we're going to need more leadership to get critical wins for a championship.

LBJ, CP3, Harden, Capela is our only way to get us over the top. DM's gotta make it happen...

 

Calm down, everyone looked like crap tonight....we lost to a team we were expected to lose to. Ariza is still useful and if you can keep him for taxpayer MLE money that's a steal. Move him to the bench to back up LBJ and he's solid for the team still.

 

I agree we're real close, but CP3's health is only going to get worse. I learned we can't win with only 2 stars, especially if there's a chance one of them goes down by the time we're in the playoffs. Harden is a beast and scoring machine, but he needs more leadership around him. We win this game if CP3 is healthy.....but there's no certainty of that going forward either.

 

you can if the team you're trading them to has cap space to absorb them.

 

Good call Vivi, I started it after game 6.....was hoping I wouldn't have to post it. But I was looking to do something the take the edge off of a loss. If we won this series, no way LBJ is coming here.

btw, I'm not down for the scorched earth path and trading tuckwagon. He's vital and would hope we can just S&T for LBJ.

 

No, you do if the trade partner is over the cap. But if they have cap space you can make the trade without taking any salary back and create a pretty large TPE to boot. But it'll cost a lot to dump a Ryno salary onto a team like Sacramento. Basically teams that can't sign anyone with cap space can get a few picks by renting their cap space for salary dumps.

 

@BimaThug and any other capologist, I did my best with my understanding of the CBA to cover the scenarios and limitations of operating under or over the cap.

As I have no interest in watching another Cavs/Warriors finals, and I’m sure for many others here on CF, the question becomes how can we improve via LBJ to beat the warriors next year and a lot of us (myself included) need to dispel misunderstandings of the CBA as it relates to getting LBJ.

Lots of likes and appreciation to anyone that can analyze and edit any of my three scenarios in the OP.