2018 Astros Minor League Thread

Cesar’s emergence is nice, but I’m still pretty skeptical about him as a viable prospect. He is only walking in a paltry 4% of his PA while his k rate is north of 25%. His BA is boosted by a .472 BABIP. Speed is not a part of his game, and judging from his body type he will likely be limited to 1B in the majors. Obviously the org sees something in him as they continue to give him chances and everyday playing time, but it’s really hard to envision a path for him as a long term big leaguer.

 

Left handed pitching was an organization weakness coming into the season, but for now looks like a real strength. Emanuel, Guduan, Hartman, C Perez, Adcock, Scheetz, Sandoval, and Mushinski have all looked really good so far. Perez, Adcock, and Sandoval all 3 have very high ceilings.

 

With the tandem system pitchers rarely get more than 5 innings, so I wouldn’t take that as any indication they view him as a future reliever.

 

You can probably say the same thing about most of the minor leaguers. In the end, each minor league player (outside of first round picks) has force himself onto the MLB roster. This is not a bad thing.

 

May Pitching notes:

The numbers from Justin Ferrell since he moved up to AA have been very encouraging. 10k/9, <1bb/9, no HR allowed. If he is somehow able to keep that up he will be a legit relief prospect by season’s end.

Dykxhoorn’s 1st start in AAA was really good.

I would like to see Ryan Hartman moved up to AAA soon. He is allowing a few HR but every other aspect of his game has been great.

Kit Scheetz has no business in High A. Get him to Corpus so we can see what he really is.

Despite an apparent breakout from Josh James, I’m still not sure he is a top prospect. His strikeout numbers certainly point to a major league future, but pretty much everything else points to a limited role with a late inning relief ceiling.

I’m intrigued by Leovanny Rodriguez. He’s already 22 but a successful move up a level would really put him on the radar.

Corbin Martin, Cionel Perez, and Patrick Sandoval are all now Top 100 prospects in my book (along with Whitley of course). JB Bukauskas and David Paulino have fallen behind those guys. After those 6, the next tier would be Tyler Ivey, Akeem Bostick, Jairo Solis, and Trent Thornton.

Tons of guys getting plenty of strikeouts but too many walks; makes for high ceilings but frustrating all the same. Solomon, Mushinski, Garcia, Javier, Bailey, H Perez, Alcala, Adcock, and Winkelman all have >9 k/9 and >4bb/9.

 

Jairo Solis is now listed on the Quad Cities roster, which I believe is a new development.

 

May Position Player Notes:

Tucker still has the edge over Alvarez in my book, but those 2 are still the best position player prospects in the system. Jonathan Arauz is close behind them and is in the Top 100 conversation.

The next tier is Matijevic, Straw, and Toro. All those guys project to potential future everyday big leaguers. Nova will be in that group as well.

Ronnie Dawson’s recent power surge has raised his stock back up. There’s still a lot to like there: athletic CF who hits for power and steals bases. He will def have to cut down on the strikeouts to move up but I like him for now.

May was very good to Jacob Meyers. More of a 4th OF type as he doesn’t walk enough and isn’t young for his league, but definitely one to watch, especially if he moves up.

Miguelangel Sierra won’t be anything if he can’t correct the strikeouts but he is a very high ceiling guy. Pedigree, power, defense.

If Mike Papierski could add some power to his game his stock would skyrocket. Not sure if he’s just not strong, is a contact hitter who can’t make solid contact, or if he is too passive. But he walks a TON, doesn’t strikeout much, and is a good catcher.

I still have hope for Stephen Wrenn.

Corey Julks is trending in the right direction.

Garrett Stubbs is a very high floor guy, plus defense and doesn’t strike out. But no walks and no power will really limit him to a backup role in Houston.

Drew Ferguson will make some team a fine reserve OF.

I’m not a believer in defensively limited prospects who don’t avoid strikeouts; hence I will be late to join bandwagons for Taylor Jones, Randy Cesar, Colton Shaver, and Jake Adams.

Updated Top 30 with mlb.com scale grades:

1. RHP Forrest Whitley 60
2. OF Kyle Tucker 60
3. OF Yordan Alvarez 55
4. RHP Corbin Martin 55
5. SS Jonathan Arauz 55
6. LHP Cionel Perez 55
7. LHP Patrick Sandoval 50
8. RHP JB Bukauskas 50
9. RHP David Paulino 50
10. SS Freudis Nova 50
11. OF JJ Matijevic 50
12. 3B Abraham Toro 50
13. OF Myles Straw 50
14. 3B Joe Perez 50
15. RHP Tyler Ivey 50
16. RHP Trent Thornton 45
17. IF/OF Josh Rojas 45
18. RHP Jairo Solis 45
19. OF Ronnie Dawson 45
20. RHP Rogelio Armenteros 45
21. SS Miguelangel Sierra 45
22. RHP Akeem Bostick 45
23. C Garrett Stubbs 45
24. RHP Jorge Alcala 45
25. RHP Josh James 45
26. LHP Brett Adcock 45
27. RHP Cristian Javier 45
28. OF Gilberto Celestino 45
29. RHP Hector Perez 45
30. OF Drew Ferguson 45
Other grade 45: OF Jacob Meyers, C Michael Papierski, SS Anibal Sierra, OF Stephen Wrenn, RHP Dean Deetz, LHP Framber Valdez, LHP Ryan Hartman, RHP Brandon Bielak, RHP Brandon Bailey, RHP Peter Solomon, LHP Parker Mushinski, RHP Luis Garcia, RHP Elian Rodriguez, RHP Angel Macuare

 

While I don't like the term "ceiling" (i.e., too many guys outperform their ceilings), I would consider a late inning relief role to be a great outcome.

 

That's pretty much my expectation of him. Similar to Devo and Feliz, I think they call him up sometime this year because they want to use him as a reliever, and he excels at that role throwing upper 90s and whatever his best secondary pitch is that he just stays in that role long term.

 

Except for it's not a pure tandem system and even it were he should be max'ing out 5 IP routinely which he's not.

Among Hooks starters with 7 starts (C. Perez, Hartman, Quiala, and Valdez):
- Perez has pitched significantly less than the other three (38.1 IP vs at least 45.1 IP for the other three)
- He's the only pitcher to pitch into the 6th inning only once.
- Quiala and Valdez have both thrown 7 IP outings this year
- Hartman has completed 6 IP thrice already.

Even Corbin Martin, who has only made 5 AA starts, already had a 7.2 IP outing there.

I wouldn't say there's clear evidence he's going the reliever path but they are not stretching him out the way they are with the other starters.

 

Out of curiously what's your beef with Josh James starting? The national guys like Longenhagen have touted him as a possible top 100 guy moving forward. I don't see many indicators jumping out that he couldn't start. The BB/9 rate isn't bad. The AA ground ball rate was respectable. He's gone decently far into games.

The AAA numbers have been skewed by a bad GB/FB and HR/FB ratios but that's pretty much it.

He's a significantly better prospect than Sandoval who's repeating A ball in his 4th pro season and has a below avg fastball.

 

Tucker, not one, not two, okay two home runs tonight.

 

longenhagen said you could probably stick a 40 on him now, which is not very close to top 100 consideration. He'll graduate before he gets enough of a reputation to be a top 100.

 

I disagree about James being a better prospect than Sandoval. Sandoval’s A ball numbers are better than James’ were at the same level and Sandoval is a year younger than James was.

James was walking 4 per 9 in AA. With all the applicable caveats about pitching prospects, most of the time a 25 year old guy with that high of walk rate in AA ends up as a reliever regardless of his fastball velocity. I hope I’m wrong.

 

Caught bits and pieces of the CC game tonight, enough to see Celestino crush a ball just foul (then eventually strike out in the AB) He doesn't look very tall, but he's built enough that he didn't look like a fish out of water as a 19 year old in AA. I'll be interested in seeing him face more appropriate competition.