The following minor leaguers were released today: IF Rodrigo Ayarza LHP Matt Bower IF Wander Franco C Anthony Hermelyn IF Dexture McCall LHP Salvador Montano LHP Nathan Thompson IF Brody Westmoreland No big surprises. Hermelyn was a 4th rd pick and Franco was a DSL bonus kid who I believe was in the org top 30 at one point. But none of those guys were ever really thought to be on track to reach the majors.
Final guesses at minor league opening day position player rosters below; should be released in the next few days. AAA: C: Fedorowicz, Stubbs IF: Reed, Kemp, White, Mayfield, DeGoti OF: Tucker, Kemmer, Ferguson, Garcia AA: C: Ritchie, De Oleo IF: Jones, Cesar, Birk, Tanielu, Michelena, Nunez OF: Straw, Alvarez, Wrenn, Dawson High A: C: Robinson, Quintana, Bracamonte IF: Sieber, Almonte, Duarte, Trompiz, Rojas, A Sierra OF: Payano, McCormick, Benedetti, Matijevic A: C: Papierski, Campos, Castro IF: Adams, Nova, M Sierra, Arauz, Toro OF: Machado, Julks, Meyers, DeLaCruz
Nova, Machado, and Campos would be the only 3 of those guys skipping a level. There’s certainly a group of players who could be put in a QC instead; a handful of last years draftees (Kyle Davis, Tovalin, Bohanek, Shaver, Mathis) are left off my guess.
Wrenn, and Dawson moved up without demonstrating they could handle current level. Alvarez did as well, but he was likely dealing with something and more likely to move up quickly.
Dawson had a 124 wRC+ in high A. Wrenn had good bb/k rates but had his power sapped. I could see an argument for Wrenn repeating in BC but the real question is who would you put in the OF in Corpus?
I'd be surprised if Davis was left off, The rest of those guys started in greenville, so they might not be considered as advanced. I could see Tovalin following Sieber's path last year as a D2 standout. Bohanek probably makes a roster somewhere as a generic MIF depth piece. IDK what they do with Shaver or Mathis, but they're pretty fringy guys anyways. I'd be shocked if Nova made the OD roster thought, I could see him, Solis, and Machado coming up in mid-May, as the Astros tend not to be very aggressive with their initial placement of players.
In getting rid of the Rookie level Greeneville team, do the Astros plan to have a second Gulf Coast league team? Or just keep the one they have overstocked?
I doubt it, I imagine this entire move was made to eliminate the personnel and resource usage they deemed to be superfluous. This way they can focus more effort on other levels with less players overall to sort through. The cost of keeping a team in Greenville versus their ST facility couldn't have been that high. The players can be sorted between the the GCL club, short season A-ball and the DSL pretty easily. 5 levels of rookie ball has always seemed excessive to me.
I think the impact of losing Greeneville will be seen in their draft strategy more than anything. Over the next 2-3 drafts (until the lower levels even out after losing a team) I think we will see them draft more high risk/reward guys. Players coming off of injury, etc. I feel like we saw that to a degree last season with Joe Perez, Peter Solomon, Kyle Serrano, etc. The GCL team will be comprised of 35-40 guys who have a wider range of age and developmental needs, instead of 30-35 guys who are all 18-20 and just aren’t ready for the grind. I also think (and think we’ve already seen this to a degree) they will start to sort through their prospects more quickly. Draft classes will be pared down to 15-20 guys within 2 years as opposed to 3. Fewer guys who really have no chance to reach the majors will be allowed to hang around the system. That may cost them a player or two but overall I agree with the approach, especially considering the state of the org as they focus more on maintaining the big league roster and will be drafting later.
I would not be surprised if the Astros added a second complex league team. IIRC the Yankees, Tigers and Padres do this. Having two complex teams would allow the Astros to have more consistent instruction at the lowest levels.
I think the Astros just don't really value GCL games that much. Even their current affiliate only had 2 players qualified for the batting title last year and 3 the year before, with none of them being top 60 in PAs. perhaps they feel players at that level are better suited for more personalized instruction rather than in game situations. With more players at the complex (with the lack of the Greenville affiliate) they would have more players to use for simulated games.
I think this has a lot to do with it. They feel instruction is likely more important than game experience for a lot of these younger players.
Minor league ball posted their prospect primer. Of note: Alcala apparently sits 98 as a starter and touches 102. Last year the highest average fastball of any starter in the majors belonged to Luis Severino at 97.7. There were only 9 qualified relievers that averaged better than 98 last year. Between him and Guzman, somehow the Astros managed to sign 2 of the now hardest throwing pitchers in the world a few years ago for a relative pittance... and i'm not entirely convinced Guzman is the better of the two.
Not sure if this has been posted, yet, but here is a new format to look up stats on Top 30 Astros Prospects: https://www.mlb.com/astros/prospects/stats
Ayarza has apparently signed with the Marlins. The Astros have also apparently (that’s the operative word here) signed 1B Luis Encarnación. Encarnación, 20, was originally signed by the Phillies as a 3B for $1 million in the 2013 IFA signing period. Other than a 4-game cameo in High-A, he has yet to progress past the short-season leagues. Here’s a blurb about him from The Good Phight from the 2016 offseason and another little scouting report from Phuture Phillies, presumably from when he first signed. Thought of as a bat-first guy, but he’s yet to show anything with the bat... let’s see if the change of scenery helps him out.
