[2015-2016] James Harden the return of the defensive juggernaut

Did you even watch those videos? I'm curious because it would tell a lot with your idea of what is supposed to be done on that side of the ball. Bc if you think those entire videos are bad defense you're sadly mistaken

The funny thing is there are tons of plays that possess defensive qualities and instincts you want on that side of the ball in those videos yet you're trying to compare it to what JH is defensively. Those videos are not the same mistakes JH is known for and consistently does from game to game.

 

yes I did, and no, those are all very basic, bad mistakes. no excuses. In the video there are countless incidences where lebron doesn't even run back to defend after missing a shot.To me that's the worst kind of defensive lapse, much more so than ball watching and losing your man.

 

By NPI single year RAPM, harden is basically a zero because of his defense and turnovers this year.

He was top 10 previous 2 years because he actually tried and protected the ball better.

But single year RAPM is noisy and unreliable, so more years are needed if this is just an outlier

 

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Draymond Greene tops the npi single year RAPM and Jahlil Okafor comes at dead last. I very much doubt that D-Grenne is the best player and Jahlil Okafor is the worst player in NBA. Also very interesting how GSW players all rank very highly in npi RAPM and 76ers players all rank very low. Something to do with the team's average point differential? I don't know.

A bench player from GSW has higher npi RAPM than Anthony Davis who is in the negative territory. Maybe AD should be demoted to the bench.

Nobody takes single year RAPM seriously. Even the guy who reports it annually - Jeremias Engelmann - doesn't take it seriously. That's why he invented the new metric called RPM, because it's simply better.

Harden has been an overwhelmingly plus player this year, due to his sheer offensive production. Not as good as last year, but definitely a plus player. It's not even close.

 

That's why I made those caveats. And he still tweets them out, you can still use the info as long as you know what it represents.

And RPM has its own problems as well, as it overrates players who get worse and underrates players who get better. Harden fell from 3rd to 16th in RPM.

 

It's not a perfect of non-perfect thing, if npi RAPM provided more useful information than RPM, than I'm sure ESPN would have used it instead. They probably thought npi single year is too noise-ridden and with all the collinearity issue, it's just not worth taking it seriously anymore. So, even if RPM is not perfect, it's still better. Go have a look at 90s and early 2000s single year RAPM leaders. It's all over the place. MJ usually doesn't even make top 10, and Scottie Pippen outranks him consistently.

It's better to take in prior information because a player rarely goes from very good to very bad in the span of a single year. That the players' talent will not fluctuate wildy in succeeding years is a very reasonable assumption to make. A slight under or overestimation is just a small price to pay in order to take out irrelevant noises and bring more stability to the data.

 

So we all know he gets caught ball watching and loses his man like once a game. But does anyone else think he did that thing where he tries to slap the ball away from behind more often this season? Like he's given up on even trying to stay in front of the ball and just padding his steals count. I've only seen him and Westbrook do it so consistently.

 

Yes, I don't remember him doing it that much previously

 

At least Harden contests shots.

average shot contests per game (playoffs)

Harden : 9.2

Westbrook : 2.8

Westbrook, IMO, has been much worse than Harden on defense lately and is showing clear signs of stat-padding that you're talking about. He has been called out by several people for his lackadaisical effort on D, like the article below.

http://www.welcometoloudcity.com/2016/5/7/11614470/russell-westbrook-defense-playoffs-game-three

 

Hardens turnovers by themselves cost us about an 8 point differential. When you subtract both his turnovers and porous defense from his offensive numbers its a miracle he finished 9th in mvp voting. He should've been around 25th.

 

By that measure, Westbrook should be 50th, because he has been worse on defense and commits just as many turnovers as Harden, actually more per possession. Same goes for Lillard, Irving, DeRozan, and to some extent Curry.

 

Except westbrook throws about 50%more dimes per possession.

None of the guys you named were worse defensively than Harden. Including Westbrook.

You know, this conversation back and forth with you is reflective of Hardens attitude this season. Dude wouldn't even ride the team bus and wouldn't adjust no matter how much we lost.

 

Because Westbrook is a PG and James Harden is a SG, in case you didn't notice.

Lillard, Irving, DeRozan all have worse defensive numbers than Harden, and before you say that doesn't count, it absolutely does because at least I have objective evidence on my side, whereas all you got is agenda-driven, hate-filled babble. You can't back up your argument with anything. Words don't mean anything without proof. I can write a 5 page essay on why Micheal Jordan was a terrible defender. Doesn't make it true and nobody will be convinced.

 

Harden is the point on our team. And he sucks at it.

 

So if James has low assists for a PG, why is it ok to have high TOs like a PG?

 

Snap! Caught in a trap.

 

Some of those are bad defense, some of them are him falling asleep (especially in the 1st and 2nd qtr), and a some of them are him avoiding fouls late in the game or just getting beat.

He needs to play better D, that's for sure.

 

Because Harden plays a dual role as a PG and SG. Did you miss my point? Harden TOVs doesn't look nearly as bad when you take into account the number of possessions. Why do you think he has so many possessions? He is our entire offense. No other player in the league has the similar level of offensive burden of Harden.

 

A turnover is a turnover is a turnover is a turnover is a turnover. All turnovers look bad. All turnovers are bad. The more turnovers that are committed the worse it gets. The only way to offset turnovers is to get the ball back by steal or taking a charge. Harden does not do that even remotely close to enough to offset the devastating negative consequences of his turnovers. He simply compounds the agony by playing a cheap, cheating style of defense in a futile attempt to garner more steals that he doesn't get. This cascades into a myriad of finishes by his defensive responsibility at the rim as he overplays and cannot recover. Which then turns into blame Dwight because Dwight is supposed to have 3 pairs of arms at the rim to hold off his man and defend Hardens man too. At least that's how Hardens beard sees it.