So losing Colorado was addition by subtraction for the Big 12, but the brilliant Larry Scott couldn't figure it out? Scott is widely considered one of the best minds in college sports, and Colorado/Utah don't exactly move the ratings needle. If those additions weren't made to get a conference championship, and you admit that Colorado doesn't draw ratings... then why did he make the move? There were numerous reports last fall from well-connected people that there were two factions within the Big 12. Those that wanted a 12-team conference, largely for reasons of stability, and those that wanted the 10-team version to maximize revenue. Mizzou was in the former camp, and the inability for that vision to win out was a big factor in their leaving. I don't know Deloss Dodds, but I trust the numerous news stories from actual journalists over revisionist history from UT fanboys. I understand very well that the Big 12's position on expansion, led by Deloss, is that it comes down to when TV partners tell them it is financially beneficial to do so. I don't think that's 100% of the motivation for other leagues. Part of it, sure. But moves like the Pac 12 adding Colorado/Utah were just as much about adding stability and exposure from a league title game. When you're at 10 teams in today's landscape, you're one defection from complete and utter chaos. Smaller leagues are not going to survive. That's why, upon initial A&M-to-SEC reports in late summer 2011, all hell broke loose with OU/OSU looking to the Pac 12, Mizzou to the SEC and Baylor to litigation. The trust within the league was weak already, and when you're only one move away from potential devastation...it doesn't take much for things to boil over. If the Big 12 had acted to replace Nebraska/Colorado a year earlier, I'm confident that A&M and Mizzou would still be members today. Instead, they acted to maximize every last dollar, stability and exposure be damned. That's fine for a school like Texas, which always has visibility no matter what and always has a parachute. It's not for the little guys. The Big 12, led by Deloss, wasn't and isn't willing to compromise. Other leagues, such as the Pac 12, have more of a group mindset and do.
This is why the Big12's whole "our next contract will be on par at $20MM per season!" is so laughable. The Big12's new contract is on par with other conference's old contracts. Even with the $15MM LHN, that means schools like Northwestern and Indiana will make more than Texas.
Yea so brilliant. That's why the UT,OU,OKST,TT move that he got approval from the Pac 10 for blew up in his face. That "well connected" source was Chip Brown at Orange Bloods who reported EVERY POSSIBLE scenario. He was the well connected source. Every report came with, "Discount for your Orange Bloods Membership" You don't know anything about the minds of those personnel. A&M had much bigger issues that were evident from every part of their program including fans. THey wanted their own identity. Adding Louisville would not have changed that. I don't like the "oh you criticize Texas just because you hate them" but you have pretty blood stained orange tinted glasses on and your projecting that onto the attitudes and mindsets of people you don't even know. If adding teams increases stability to a conference than the Big East wouldn't be such trash. They added like 6 right after they lost some to the ACC. It just lost a team and it's about to lose another. First you get the Money, Then you get the Power, Then you Get the Trophy.... and women.
I hope it happens because the drama would be great and I want the ACC to crumble (since that's where Notre Dame went).
Ian Fitzsimmons on ESPN Dallas is reporting that his SEC sources are hearing that VA Tech and NC State are the next to head to the SEC...that there's already momentum towards that. He's also reporting that VA and Georgia Tech will head to the Big 10 (B1G)... he goes on to say that Fla St and Clemson woudl then follow to the Big 12. The intrigue here is that Fitzsimmons was way early on the call that the Ags were heading to the SEC. I sent an email to my friend with Big 12 connections 2 days ago asking, "how long before we start hearing Florida State to the Big 12 again?" His response was, "this weekend." I don't know if he was joking or not...and of course, his sources were flat out wrong when they told him this last summer that there was "imminent movement" on Fl St and Clemson to the Big 12. So always with a grain of salt...but he's been pretty reliable over the last few years. He absolutely nailed what was happening with the Big 12 in the midst of the Aggies leaving and what they were pieceing together in their wake.... What's maybe more interesting is that ultimately this loss of ACC confidence could get 3 conferences to 16 teams sooner rather than later. EDIT: my friend says he's hearing that the Big 12 has been contacted by lots of schools since Saturday, including Clemson and FSU. His take is that FSU and Clemson are ultimately the ones that end up in the Big 12 given all the "noise" around that he's been hearing for so long.
What exactly do VaTech & NC State do for the SEC? Is this their best fallback option since UF & USC are blocking FSU & Clemson? UVA and GaTech to the Big Ten makes sense. FSU & Clemson to the Big 12 is great for the Big 12 even though they really belong in the SEC. Question for anyone: If the Big Ten expands to 16 and the ACC collapses because they lose the 6 teams mentioned above, what happens to Notre Dame? They apparently have an ACC "out clause". Do they go back to being independent or does the Big 12 get the golden prize?
Not doubting you or your source, but I thought the whole point of the Big 10 endgame was to save a spot for Notre Dame...not to add Georgia Tech? Also in this scenario, UNC gets left out in the cold...that doesn't seem likely IMO. I think the Big 12 would rather have them than Clemson.
I don't know, honestly. The Fitzsimmons report out of Dallas was the one talking about VA Tech and NC State to the SEC...that was news to me too. And my friend doesn't have any direct contacts within any other conference but the Big 12...so he can't tell me anything regarding what the other conferences are doing other than what he hears second-hand. I agree with you on UNC...I'm sure they'll find a home in another conference, but my understanding is that they're the ones holding on to the ACC like grim death. They're a bit like Kansas in that they're a basketball school where football is an after thought....Kansas didn't fare so well in realignment rumors of the past. However, the big difference is media markets in NC compared to media markets in KS, I suppose.
Yes...that's my best guess. It's always been my understanding that Florida, South Carolina and Georgia had each other's backs in preventing those schools from being added to the SEC...to protect their "lone SEC school in the state" status.
The SEC only wants to expand into new states to expand their reach, especially for the purposes of the SEC Network - so VaTech and NCState give them two big and growing markets in Virginia and North Carolina. FSU and Clemson don't expand their footprint at all. It's basically the same reason they wanted A&M, and why the Big10 wanted Maryland and Rutgers. Back when the SEC added Mizzou, the original assumption was that VaTech would be their first choice - but VaTech was loyal to Virginia, which put a lot of effort into getting them into the ACC. But if Virginia is going to the Big10, then VaTech has no real loyalty to the ACC at that point. I'm a little surprised by GaTech being the other Big10 target - I would think they would aim for UNC. Great academics, big market, and there's a bit more geographical continuity there.
All that said, this is exactly what the ACC Apocolypse guy said a few days ago that I posted: www.eersauthority.com/acc-apocalypse/ It's basically just his theoretical speculation based on WVU sources. Based on the amount of misinformation we've gotten in the past, I'm guessing this guy is the ESPN "source".
So, long term, NC State and VaTech would bring enough additional television revenue to make up for splitting the pie into more pieces. Reaching for the Atlanta market makes sense for the Big Ten more than North Carolina. What is the academic standing of GaTech? Is it on par with UNC? Sam, I hear you on Notre Dame to the Big Ten. If that happens, I'll be happy that my favorite conference is done so I can enjoy the carnage elsewhere.
Not exactly, but very close...this ACC Apocalypse Guy has NC State to the Big 12. Fitzsimmons has them going to the SEC in the next round of expansion.
Exactly - the Big10 Network footprint is the key to their revenue stream, so major new markets expands the pie a lot. Yeah - GaTech is on par with UNC, I believe - or at least good enough to meet the Big10 standards. It just seems like UNC brings some uber-basketball credibility and they've always said geography matters, though that's probably not really true. I think as conferences lock in teams with bigger buyouts or media rights contracts (like the Big12), the conferences are realizing that if they want to expand, it might be now-or-never to some extent. On Notre Dame, I think the idea WAS to hold a spot open for them, but then when they joined the ACC, the Big10 might have given up on that idea. I still don't know why ND was so unwilling to go with the Big10.
True - I guess I was assuming the Big10 would at least give them the same deal as the ACC with the intention of eventually hoping to bring them on as a permanent member. But the Big10 may not have been willing to do that. For the money, if the Big10 is planning to get $45MM per school, I don't see NBC dollars being much more than that. It will be funny if ND left the BigEast because it was imploding, only to see the ACC implode as well. The schools that were supposed to be the biggest fish in all this (ND, Texas, OU) seem to have ended up in the net-worst situations, relatively speaking.
Then again, on ND, if they become annual national title contenders the next few years, they might just score huge $$ on another NBC contract.
