I was thinking about how many wins we might be able to put together this season and wanted something accurate to compare our team to, and I thought that this team is "relatively" comparable to the 2000-1 team. Steve and Mobley were our high scorers w/ Mo and Hakeem just behind them. Hakeem put up these numbers that year and I think Yao can match them: 7.4 RPG, 1.2 ASSTs, 1.2 STLS, 1.5 BLKS, 11.9 PPG Our record was 45 - 37, but I believe we have a much deeper bench, better shooters and a younger/quicker team, so I don't see why we can't realistically project a 54 - 28 season.
I think the change in the illegal defense rules since the 2000-01 season must be factored in as well. Until Rudy adjusts the offense to involve more movement and less iso's I don't see us winning 50 games.
moving Yao to the top of the key will definitely kickoff a running/passing offense, high-picks and p-n-r's. it should also help generate more opportunities to drive the basket down the lane. We always need the outside shooting game to open up the basket and that is where I believe we excell over the 2000-1 team and where we will get our extra wins this year.
You cant compare that season with this season. Just because we won X games that year does not mean we will win Y games this year. Maybe if all the teams in 2000-2001 had the same exact players, then we may be able to make a prediction, but every single team has changed. Many have improved.
we can easily be the aggressor in most of these games by taking Ming and putting him at the free throw line. The guards in the zone won't be able to block him and have cutters from each side. And Ming won't miss a free throw. Let the defense collapse in the middle and that will open up the 3 pointers and rearrange the zone which will cause confusion for the defense. Oh yeah buddy, 48 wins this year! I'm pumped!
The ultra-realist in me notes that: 1) Yao Ming will have a major period of adjustment to the NBA (travel, # of games, physical nature of NBA play, large numbers of opposing fans being aggresively negative, the media, etc.) and American culture (food, customs, etc.). 2) The degree to which Glen Rice will be able to return to his level of play as recently as the Lakers (2 seasons ago) is at this point largely indeterminable. I hated the trade, am on record to that effect from Day 1 but will love it if/when Glen makes me eat my words...but at this point I still am a skeptic. 3) As much as I like him, Nachbar is a largely unproven commodity. And Terence Morris is not a proven shooter. 4) If we're dependent on moving Kenny Thomas to SF as a solution then we need to remember that KT was a center in college and an NBA PF...there will be a learning curve even if he is successful. 5) Mo Taylor has not played much NBA ball with over half the roster and not 1 minute with Rice, Nachbar, Morris, or Yao. 6) With all of the injuries last season, RT had no chance to install a new offense. If he does, everyone will be learning it. 7) The 45-37 team of two seasons ago was unbeaten against the EC Central Division...a feat not likely repeated. The ultra-realist in me says (barring major injury) 44 wins and playoff spot #8...but look out for 2003-2004!
I only predict 47 wins this season, primarily because I think the EC is much stronger than they were two seasons ago, when the Rockets were something like 25-5 against Eastern teams...that's not going to happen again. I also think the WC has become a little more competitive with the rise of Dallas and possibly the Clippers. I don't think there's going to be any 60 win teams in the west. 47 wins will definitely get the Rockets in the playoffs. So eventhough the record might not show it, this team is much better than the 2000-2001 team.
But our record towards the west was horrible that year, and you know that's gonna change. We got swept by seattle, sacremento, san antonio, and we even got beat by denver. Those wins are also gonna come and the losses in the east are also gonna come, so it will pretty much balance each other out. 48-24
Maybe I am looking toward the bright side of the win column, but Hakeem really wasn't that dominant in the low post that year and I am hedging wins on the fact that our offense is going to be a lot more balanced. Teams didn't have to respect our low post play as much as our outside game. i also think that we have more experience than we are getting credit for and it will not take long to implement any new variation to account for Yao, etc.
