When Tracy McGrady was traded, Darryl Morey laid out his asset plan for fans. The Rockets were going to collect multiple first rounders and coveted young players to help them in dealing for a superstar should one ever become available. We all loved the idea and thought Morey was a genius for his coup of the McGrady trade. The Knicks picks were going to help us trade for a star while screwing over the Knicks (their draft pick would be more valuable to the ex-star's team if the star went to us instead of New York). Seeing as the Carmelo rumors are heating up and the trade deadline is a couple months away, I thought it might be a good time to discuss the value of our current trade assets and see if we can assess just how valuable of trading chips we have going into the deadline.* *I'm not advocating trading ANY of these players, but merely laying out in my mind who would be our most valuable trade chips. 1. Aaron Brooks Probably our most valuable trade asset in my mind. Brooks is a young PG that is an explosive scorer; he can get off his own shot at anytime and has shown the ability to knock down big shots. Last year, despite shooting the most three-pointers in the NBA (a lot of them contested), Brooks shot nearly 40% from downtown. In other words, he's a hell of a shooter. I wonder how much his contract situation works against him though -- teams aren't trading for a young PG on a cheap contract, they're trading for a young PG whose due a BIG raise the following year. Brooks' is also undersized and has issues defensively that really hold him back from being a complete player . 2. Draft Picks (2011 Hou; 2012 Hou; 2012 NY) We have the right to swap draft picks in 2011 with NYK, but considering the records we both have right now let's assume that we'll be keeping our pick. I think our 2011 draft pick is probably the most valuable of the three right now because we're currently sitting in lottery land. I'd probably rank our draft picks value as 2011, 2012 Hou, and 2012 NY last. Unfortunately, we cannot trade our own draft pick in consecutive years, so any trade packages involving these draft picks would include 2011 HOU + 2012 NY or 2012 HOU + 2012 NY. First rounders are always valuable, but the Knicks pick has gone from the pick that will separate our trade offers from the rest to being a late 1st rounder. While the 2012 NY still holds value, I don't think it is anywhere near as enticing as we hoped it would be when we first acquired it. Of course, this could all change if the Knicks get a major injury or fail to land Amare -- but the outlook is gloom right now. 3. Jordan Hill/Chase Budinger/Patrick Patterson These are often the most common names you see in our trade proposals, as they are the youngest guys on our team with some skills. Unfortunately, it looks like Chase Budinger's value has gone in the tank. He was a solid role player for us last year, but he's absolutely killed the value he once built up with his horrid shooting this year. Even if he regains his stroke, teams should realize that last year is a lot closer to his ceiling than we once thought. Jordan Hill.. probably the most overrated asset we have by this board. Jordan Hill is a solid player.. but he's a role player. He's still raw on the offensive end and needs to develop some, but he just doesn't have the basketball skills to ever really become a star. I see Jordan Hill's ceiling as a potential starter down the line, but not someone you can consistently rely on, on a championship contender. He's added a nice jump hook to his game and seems to have a reasonably reliable 15 foot jump shot. He never really dominates a game offensively, often collecting his points off offensive rebounds or assist from penetration. Defensively, he's starting to use his length more and has shown to be a decent shotblocker. He still gets lost a lot in our defensive schemes. D'Antonio called him a bad rookie... Adelman plays him inconsistent minutes, claiming that Jordan loses his focus at times and has defensive lapses. Teams might be leery of trading for him considering it would have been his second team that has seemingly passed him along. He started playing basketball at a late age and doesn't seem to have a good basketball IQ. Patrick Patterson is the wild card. Nobody knows how good he can be. He's putting up nice stats for the Vipers.. but as one poster once said, "the problem with using stats from the Vipers is that you're using stats from the Vipers." I'm sure him not cracking he rotation has some effect on his trade value, but I'm not sure how much. Some members on this board wanted to cut Carl Landry after his disappointing summer league and we all saw how that worked out. I'd say PPat's value is an incomplete. 4. Expiring Contracts (Yao/Shane/Jeffries) Expiring contracts are nice, but they aren't any blue-chip trade bait. It's probably a moot point discussing Yao as I don't think anyone believes he'll be dealt and his injury concerns would scare teams away from making a significant offer anyways. Jeffries and Shane have some value, but mostly as an expiring contract. Battier would probably have more value to a contending team -- perhaps the Rockets could squeeze out another #20s 1st round pick for him at the deadline. ---- I didn't go through each player on the team as I just wanted to touch on what I considered to be our most appealing assets. Martin and Scola are good players, but they're both on hefty contracts and probably wouldn't be wanted if a team is rebuilding via trading their star. Lowry's value is probably at an all-time high, but he still grades out to be just an average NBA PG on an MLE contract (16th best or worse). I'm actually surprised that Cleveland wanted him considering they have Mo Williams, who I consider to be better than Kyle. Putting yourself in the shoes of an opposing GM (non-Rockets bias, if possible), how would you grade our trade assets overall? Would you feel like you got a good deal by trading your star player for a combination of the assets listed? I'm limiting the options in the poll to three choices: Bad, Average, Great. I did this to force you into one category or another. I'd probably vote that our assets are average -- Brooks and the 2011 HOU pick being the two greatest assets, but the 2011 pick could turn out to be non-lottery if the team gels when Yao and AB come back. I don't really see them as being enough to land a Carmelo Anthony type talent. What say you Rockets fans?
Good thread. 5 stars. I think we have great assets to trade....... I would also add as a great trading chips: 1. Kevin Martin - a highly efficient scoring SG, that would be a perfect complimentary piece to a star, or up and coming player. And his contract at $11 million a year is reasonable for 22ppg and such quality shooting. 2. Courtney Lee - a young athletic accomplished SG that is having career highs in most categories, and is on a very reasonable contract. 3. Chuck Hayes - the perfect defensive complimentary piece and another expiring contract. 4. Trade exception worth the full MLE 5. Yao Ming - An expiring contract and a player with massive upside, if healthy, some teams might be willing to take a chance and control his bird rights. I think we have great trade assets whether we are getting a great player or facilitating others getting a great player and we in turn upgrading incrementally. However, I do not think we are a desirable destination because of Yao Ming's situation. I don't believe that any good NBA player will look to come here as long as the team is relying on him being healthy. If he were a backup, or signed to a cheap contract, then sure, but until his situation is resolved (either a low contract or not resigned, or traded) then I don't think any high level NBA player will want to come to Houston. So, DM's best chance is to keep acquiring Good, but not great players.....for now. DD
At this point, do you really think that inside the organization everyone is still relying on Yao being healthy? Because, if they are we may be more screwed than I thought... I mean c'mon, every injury this guy has keeps him out for over a month, he isn't going to ever be the player he once was, and its just time to give up on him being our star. With that being said, I would have no problem with us signing him to a smaller contract (around 5 million/year) to come off the bench or be a starting role player, but the truth is, he will never be a guy that can play 30+ mpg for even 55 games a year. It's sad, but it has been time to move on... lets hope the organization finally realizes this.
IMO, trade values are quite skewed right now because of the imminent threat of a lockout. IF we lose a whole NBA season next year and IF we come back with a new CBA that is a big reduction in player's salaries, then draft pick values would go through the roof and high-salaried players on longer term contracts would fall drastically. This is the one unknown moving piece to the puzzle that no one can predict. I'm sure Morey is aware of this unknown, and I seriously doubt Morey gives away any of our picks unless it is for substantial currently value. I'm also sure Morey understands the value of Brooks right now. He is a very effective shooter/scorer who is an offensive mismatch against practically the whole league, and he is going into his restricted season, where, he can seek a contract from any other team, but the Rox can match it. This means his value, if there is a lockout, is at a peak, representing essentially an expiring contract with Bird's rights, that is likely to be much more matchable at a substantial lower salary after the new CBA is put into place. (This is why Brooks would love to get an extension now but he KNOWS it ain't going to happen.) Morey knows this and knows he can get an arm and a leg for Brooks right now based on the fact that a team that covets a good, young point guard knows they can get one in Brooks and they will not have to overpay Brooks when he is restricted. Therefore, Brooks' trade value is sky high right now. And the value of expiring contracts should be high as lottery bound teams should become more and more willing to give away longer term contracts as the trade deadline approaches, so they have the opportunity to start over with little to no salary obligations after the new CBA is finally negotiated.
Even Scola, who has great market value. I would rate our assets as: very good, almost remarkable. No team has more versatility.
Morey brought this up a few times, and members on here have reiterated it as well: The value of many of our trade assets(minus draft picks) are correlated/influenced by how the team is playing- our record. The better we are doing, the higher our assets will be valued. This is also the best argument against tanking. With that in mind, with our current standing, our assets are mediocre at best. Hopefully that will change with some improved play.
You can't grade our assets without comparing them to that of other teams. You need more than just equal value to trade, you need a superior offer than other teams.
My initial post was long enough.. if I went through every team and laid out their assets vs. ours, I'd have 10 follow up post of "didn't read!" gifs! That said, the two most comparable right now are the Nets' with Favors + 1st round picks and the Knicks with Galinari/Fields/Randolph(1st rounder) Courtney Lee and the trade exception are both valuable assets that I left off -- good catch. The problem with the TE is that we can't combine it with other plays and it's worth ~5-6M I believe.. so I don't think we'll find a star worthy player in that range, but it could be used to get us another 'good' player. Courtney Lee's value seems to be going up and up lately. Though I wonder, if made available, if teams would pause because he has already been traded twice. I'd expect some GMs to be unsure about him since trading for him would mean a guy has been dealt three times in three years. Fair point -- but a lot of teams have expiring contracts. Shane Battier's expiring contract isn't any more valuable than Eddy Curry's, for example. So while I agree that expiring contracts are important and necessary to facilitate trades, I'd be careful of overstating their value as seemingly a lot of teams have them.
I would venture there are many other teams with draft picks, young talent, and expiring contracts. Honestly, it would be easier to name teams that don't have those things.
Morey has stated in interviews that Luis Scola gets the most calls regarding him in trades... Now Im saying that we should trade our best offensive post player right now, but if the Rockets have a bad December and January and look far out of the playoff race it might be time to start fielding calls for him. Needless to say, its going to be an interesting trade deadline for the Rockets because its inevitable either multiple small moves, or one giant move will be made. I graded the Rockets assets as Average quality, but on the other hand they have most average tradeable assets of any team in the NBA.
The first time he was traded for Vince Carter. The second time he was traded for Troy Murphy. Sounds like he has had pretty darn good trade value thus far... If the trend continues maybe Lee is all we will need to bring in Iguodala.
I don't know guys. I think as a whole this board might overrate our assets altogether. The trend, IMO, in the NBA seems to be trade exceptions and draft picks. I think we have some decent assets but there are a lot of teams out there right now that can compete with us for assets. With the lockout looming, teams are going to dump contracts and from what I read, trades will be going down come January. Yao's health is hurting this team as Morey looks to build for the future. I know this might be wrong of me to say but i wish he would retire. I really don't have faith he'll be healthy enough to help us long term.
we need to look to trade scola, yao, and martin (while he's healthy). i'd like to hold on to lowry and watch his development. sorry, but we need to blow this sucker up and get better thru the draft. we aren't getting any of the "superstars" in the nba thru trades or free agency.
Scola can be a big asset to a contender, his salary is quite the bargain for his production and if the team has a good interior presence already established then it can shield Scola's defensive liabilities quite well. AB is the Pguard I think will get dealt because of the salary demands he'd have in the offseason. I can see him being packaged with one or two of the kids for a big return. Ariza's T/E may yet play a huge part in what the Rox do. It isn't as big as Toronto or Philly's exception but could still net a nice player from a money starved franchise or complete a bigger deal as a secondary trade. The 2011 pick should be the only untouchable asset for the Rox unless it gets us Melo(extension in place), Paul or another star that may become available. The 2012 NY pick should be moved as part of a deal or combined with the Rox 2012 pick to move up the draft but that is further down the road,
the only problem is i can't think of a contender than can use scola. maybe orlando? maybe the thunder?
We have very good trade assets. But Morey still has his work cut out for him. Who do you trade? Who do you keep? Who do you get in return? If you traded Scola or Martin, who do you bring in return that matches (let alone exceeds) value? How does Morey solve this mess of talent duplication? How many power forwards does it take to screw in a lightbulb? How long must we (and Morey) continue with a lineup designed to revolve around a player who never plays, simply to ensure the owner keeps raking in cash from business contracts in China? And if that "player" does not "play-", does that just make him an "-er"? Talk about a crossroads. Try to make trades that improve the team now, albeit not enough to really win anything (Iguodala?); or blow it up for a slow or quick rebuild (draft picks, Marc Gasol, Ricky Rubio?).
What, are you kidding? All sorts of teams. Especially the Florida teams. Going out of the "contender" category, if NY gets Carmelo this year, New Jersey would come calling once they realize they're out of the Melo sweepstakes. They were going to make an offer for Scola, and in a post-Luis-signing-his-contract-interview, DM mentioned NJ still had interest. Toronto loves international players (they like it better there than do American players). If it weren't for Millsap, Utah would love him. Sloan would teach him how to REEEAAALLY flop.
