Ugh f'ing Soto. Hate him more and more. At least it ended up meaning nothing. Now time to come back. LFG!!!!!! EDIT: Wrong thread LOL
Hate losing and being down in the series, but odds still in Astros favor. Make it come to fruition, Stros !!
Annoyed at all the Stros will sweep talk, but ultimately, it doesn't matter. Tomorrow night is huge. Strass is tough as nails.
There are a lot of factors that go into this, not just true probability. Because the largest liability in most books are on the Astros winning the World Series, the Nats will probably still be favored or even money now so that ticket holders will be incentivized to hedge.
Hopefully you now see the problem with this theory. If you try to buy yourself out of the bet by betting on Washington tomorrow, you could very well double down on your losses if the Astros win tomorrow but still lose the series. Really, the smart play if you really believe the Astros are that much better than the Nationals would be to double down on your bet with much better odds now.
903 Washington Nationals S Strasburg - R +1½ -140 +160 904 Houston Astros J Verlander - R -1½ +120 -170
Yeah, I’m in the process of deciding now - for me it’s either double down on tonight’s game or just let it ride. Obviously if we lose tonight it’s pretty much a wrap - losing with Cole and then JV tonight would be a devastating blow to this team. If I really wanted to I could get myself out because I put a sizable (albeit less) bet down in Vegas back in July on the Astros prior to Greinke at 4.5 to 1 but that’d be such a waste. Even though they lost last night I saw what I needed to see from the Nats bullpen. If we can just extend the series, even if we’re down 3-2 coming back home I’ll take our chances.
I was thinking it’d be pickem or Nats -110 to win the series now. True odds probability Nats maybe 55% chance to win right now?
Astros getting around -119. I am fairly confident in that bet but still a little worried about tonight's game. If I am confident in the Astros taking the series then I should be confident in the Astros winning tonight which obviously will be a toss up game. If we do lose tonight as Htown Stros mentioned that will be nearly impossible to come back from down 0-2 with our best pitchers spent with 3 games to go in Nats ballpark. This makes me think I shouldn't be so confident in a bet at -119 but I am confident in these Astros to play better tonight.
Crap, I meant to write the Astros will probably still be favored. I don't know what the true probability is. My point was that the books also factor in minimizing liability from futures tickets (along with other things like action-inducing lines), so the new series price isn't necessarily true odds. So assuming the Nats are like a 55% true odds favorite, the Astros are probably still favored in many books because the books want more Nats bets at this time. There's still just way too much money (like Mattress Mac) bet on the Astros on outstanding futures tickets.
At this point, nothing has really changed. Even looking at the worst case scenario down 0-3, you still have Cole better than Corbin in game 4, Verlander better than Scherzer in game 5, Greinke better than Strasburg in game 6, and Cole better than Sanchez in game 7. There's no scenario where I wouldn't like our chances in each game. The fans are over reacting with doom and gloom scenarios when in all 7 games we are the odds on favorite to win each game on paper. Even if the Nationals flip their rotation, the only advantage they ever have is if they match up Scherzer against Greinke in a game 6 but that could never happen.
You wrote it correctly. And you were right and I was wrong- I thought even with all that going on the Astros might be pick em or even the slightest of dogs.
If it’s 0-3 we are dead. Way too optimistic/naive here, and in your scenario, Cole would be going twice on short rest.
If having a better era 2.93, better record 18-5, better FIP 3.22, and better era+ of 154 this year aren't enough, how about that cy young. It's on display. It's a clean sweep. Greinke has been better than Strasburg and there are layers to this. Washington fans have Strasburg blinders on right now, which is fine, he's more than decent, a movie star, but he still is what he is at this point when compared to Greinke.