While this is true, Vegas/Casinos will occasionally intentionally leave themselves somewhat exposed where they end up heavily favoring one side - as in they don't move lines where money has been pouring in on one side.
we were favored by 3 in game 1 and the warriors were favored by 10 in game 4. neither was close to being right.
We did what we had to do in Game 4, Now we need to keep the same attitude as a MUST win Game tomorrow regardless of what Vegas thinks. Go Rockets
People are betting that the Warriors are going to be hungry and go 100% in game 5 to finish the Rockets in 6 at home. Further adjustments have played a big part in this series. As I said before this series started, the first team to win two games in a row will win this series.
Yep. All those "the Greatest Team in the History of the Entire Universe can't possibly lose another one to this bunch of nobodies" bettors.
Who knows, seems like they think the rockets wont win unless they feel the heat or in danger panic mode, so after this 2-2 tie, they dont feel pressured again so the line in favor to the warriors only way they are thinking.
Warriors going to come out with sledge hammers! This won't be easy. Rockets gotta stay strong and discipline.
Massive value in betting Rockets. I doubt there is much truly “smart” money betting GS. The books know that GS is very popular with the betting public and don’t have to give the Worriers many points to entice people to bet them, to the point that they are now favored. Same thing happens with “public” teams like the Yankees or the Patriots, etc. The computers and analytics favor the Rockets. Just look at the carm-Elo projection on 538...Rockers favored by like 5.5 points. You don’t often see the Vegas line differ by 6-7 points from what 538 publishes. It is usually very close. If you like money you absolutely hammer the Rockets. I mean one team won 65 games, another won 58. The 65 win team is also 4-3 against the 58 win team, who may be without 1 or even 2 starters. Yet the 58 win team is favored. Lol.
The argument against this is that the Warriors are playing their superstars far more minutes than they did in the regular season, which skews the line from what 538 projects to what the market is offering. Granted, the Rockets are doing the same with Harden and CP3, but the basic idea is when Durant, Steph and Green are playing 40 minutes they are presumed to be stronger than we are. I still think there is value in Houston as a bet, but disagree that the line is off by 6 points or so.
This. And being closer to CA where more people like/watch the GSW and proximity to vegas, more people/money going in that direction. That moves the line to try and get money on the other side.