The Forrest Whitley hype train is moving along at hyper speed. Absolutely cannot wait to see what he does this season. Just thinking about his potential as our future ace is something else.
While I don't think he'll be ready to pitch starter innings this year in majors, it would not surprise me if he is viewed as a guy that could be like McCullers, Morton, or Peacock in the postseason.
*Major spoilers ahead for those who haven't gotten their copy yet* Here's how the Astros stack up in the latest iteration of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook. Houston ranked #11 in the organizational talent rankings section, down from #4 in 2017. Position Rankings Obviously, the top prospects (in BA's opinion) in baseball at each spot on the diamond. Yordan Alvarez: #2 1B (#1: Jake Bauers) Kyle Tucker: #2 corner OF (#1: Eloy Jimenez) Forrest Whitley: #7 RHP (40 ranked, #1: Shohei) J.B. Bukauskas: #39 RHP Sadly, they did away with personal top 50 lists this year. 2017 Draft Analysis Best pure hitter: J.J. Matijevic Best power hitter: Jake Adams Fastest baserunner: Jake Meyers Best defensive player: Mike Papierski Best fastball: Kyle Serrano (97-98 "in short stints"), Corbin Martin (90-96, "does a better job of locating") Best secondary pitch: J.B. Bukauskas' slider ("consistent 70 grades") Best pro debut: Brandon Bielak Best athlete: Joe Perez and Corey Julks Most intriguing background: Cole Watts (31st round) - Watts attended San Diego State for two years without playing baseball before giving it another shot Closest to the majors: Bukauskas Best late-round pick: Josh Rojas The one who got away: Marty Costes (OF, 25th round from Maryland) Best Tools Best pure hitter: Kyle Tucker Best power hitter: Yordan Alvarez Fastest baserunner: Myles Straw Best strike-zone discipline: Straw Best Athlete: Alvarez Best Fastball: Jorge Alcala Best Curveball: Framber Valdez Best Slider: Forrest Whitley Best Changeup: Whitley Best Control: Rogelio Armenteros Best Defensive Catcher: Garrett Stubbs Best Defensive Infielder: Freudis Nova Best Infield Arm: J.D. Davis Best Defensive Outfielder: Gilberto Celestino Best Outfield Arm: Straw Projected 2021 Lineup C: Garrett Stubbs 1B: Yordan Alvarez 2B: Jose Altuve 3B: Alex Bregman SS: Carlos Correa LF: Derek Fisher CF: George Springer RF: Kyle Tucker SP1: Forrest Whitley SP2: Lance McCullers SP3: Justin Verlander SP4: Dallas Keuchel SP5: J.B. Bukauskas Closer: Jorge Alcala Houston Astros Top 30 Prospects, as rated by Baseball America, with grades and risk factor I'll also throw in their ages (read as: whatever age they are for the majority of the 2018 season) for the 2018 season and the highest affiliate they played with in 2017. BA debuted a new risk grade, "Very High," for "recent draft picks with a limited track record of success or injury issues." It's slotted in between "High" and "Extreme." They also have tool grades for everyone in the top 10. Top 2018 rookie: Forrest Whitley Breakout prospect: Gilberto Celestino Sleeper: RHP Luis Garcia (see below) (Colin Moran and Jason Martin are still in the book, I'm still including them in the list anyway because you're still gonna see them in the Astros section) 31. (if ordered through Baseball America) Luis Garcia, RHP, 50/Extreme; age 21 (DOB December 13, 1996), DSL Blue 30. Miguelangel Sierra, SS, 45/Extreme; age 20 (DOB December 2, 1997), Tri-City 29. Elián Rodriguez, RHP, 45/Extreme; age 21 (DOB March 10, 1997), DSL Orange 28. Jandel Gustave, RHP, 45/Extreme; age 25 (DOB October 12, 1992), Houston 27. Riley Ferrell, RHP, 45/High; age 24 (DOB October 18, 1993), Corpus Christi 26. J.J. Matijevic, OF, 45/High; age 22 (DOB November 14, 1995), Quad Cities 25. Cristian Javier, RHP, 45/High; age 21 (DOB March 26, 1997), Buies Creek 24. A.J. Reed, 1B, 45/High; age 25 (DOB May 10, 1993), Fresno 23. Jonathan Arauz, SS, 50/Extreme; age 19 (DOB August 3, 1998), Quad Cities 22. Dean Deetz, RHP, 40/Medium; age 24 (DOB November 29, 1993), Fresno 21. Ronnie Dawson, OF, 50/High; age 23 (DOB May 18, 1995), Buies Creek 20. Gilberto Celestino, OF, 50/High; age 19 (DOB February 13, 1999), Greeneville 19. Jason Martin, OF, 45/Medium; age 22 (DOB September 5, 1995), Corpus Christi (happy trails) 18. Garrett Stubbs, C, 45/Medium; age 25 (DOB May 26, 1993), Fresno 17. Myles Straw, OF, 45/Medium; age 23 (DOB October 17, 1994), Corpus Christi 16. Corbin Martin, RHP, 50/High; age 22 (DOB December 28, 1995), Tri-City 15. Joe Perez, 3B, 55/Extreme; age 18 (DOB August 12, 1999), did not play 14. Framber Valdez, LHP, 50/High; age 24 (DOB November 19, 1993), Corpus Christi 13. Cionel Perez, LHP, 50/High; age 22 (DOB April 21, 1996), Corpus Christi 12. Rogelio Armenteros, RHP, 45/Medium; age 23/24 (DOB June 30, 1994), Fresno 11. J.D. Davis, 3B/occasional RHP, 45/Medium; age 25 (DOB April 27, 1993), Houston Now the top 10... 10. David Paulino, RHP, 55/Extreme; age 24 (DOB February 6, 1994), Houston Grades: 60 fastball, 60 curve, 55 changeup, 45 control 9. Colin Moran, 3B, 45/Medium; age 25 (DOB October 1, 1992), Houston Grades: 50 hit, 55 power, 30 speed, 45 fielding, 60 arm 8. Jorge Alcala, RHP, 50/High; age 22/23 (DOB July 28, 1995), Buies Creek Grades: 80 fastball, 40 slider, 40 changeup, 40 control 7. Hector Perez, RHP, 50/High; age 21/22 (DOB June 6, 1996), Buies Creek Grades: 70 fastball, 40 curveball, 45 slider, 60 changeup, 40 control 6. Jairo Solis, RHP, 55/Extreme; age 18 (DOB December 22, 1999), Greeneville Grades: 55 fastball, 55 slider, 50 changeup, 55 control 5. Freudis Nova, SS, 55/Extreme, age 18 (born January 12, 2000), DSL Orange Grades: 55 hit, 50 power, 60 speed, 55 fielding, 60 arm 4. J.B. Bukauskas, RHP, 55/High, age 21 (DOB October 11, 1996), Tri-City Grades: 60 fastball, 70 slider, 45 changeup, 50 control 3. Yordan Alvarez, 1B/OF, 60/High; age 20/21 (DOB June 27, 1997), Buies Creek Grades: 55 hit, 60 power, 50 speed, 50 fielding, 45 arm 2. Kyle Tucker, OF, 60//Medium; age 21 (DOB January 17, 1997), Corpus Christi Grades: 60 hit, 60 power, 50 speed, 55 fielding, 50 arm 1. Forrest Whitley, RHP, 65/High; age 20 (DOB September 15, 1997), Corpus Christi Grades: 70 fastball, 60 curveball, 60 slider, 55 changeup, 50 cutter, 55 control
Was cutting it close to the character limit... Breakdown/Changes from 2017 26 homegrown, 4 acquired (all 4 acquired via trade) Of the 26 homegrown players... - 9 came from four-year schools - 2 from JUCO - 4 from high school - 12 international free agents 13 RHP (Whitley, Bukauskas, Hector Perez, Solis, Paulino, Armenteros, Javier, Alcala, Martin, Deetz, Ferrell, Gustave, Elian Rodriguez) 4 LF (Alvarez, Dawson, Matijevic, Martin) 3 3B (Moran, Davis, Joe Perez) 3 SS (Freudis, Arauz, Sierra) 2 LHP (Framber and Cionel) 2 RF (Tucker and Straw) 1 C (Stubbs) 1 1B (Reed) 1 CF (Celestino) 20-80 Grades 1 65 (Whitley) 2 60 (Alvarez and Tucker) 5 55 (Bukauskas, Nova, Solis, Paulino, Joe Perez) 8 50 (Hector Perez, Alcala, Cionel, Framber, Corbin Martin, Celestino, Dawson, Arauz) 12 45 (Davis, Armenteros, Straw, Stubbs, Jason Martin, Reed, Javier, Matijevic, Ferrell, Gustave, Elian Rodriguez, Sierra 1 40 (Deetz) Risk Grades 14 high 8 extreme 8 medium Oldest: Colin Moran (10/1/92) Youngest: Freudis Nova (1/12/00) Biggest rise (for someone who has already been featured in the book): Whitley (#6 in 2017, #1 in 2018) Biggest drop (dropped out entirely): Trent Thornton (#21 in 2017) Biggest drop (still in book): Miguelangel Sierra (#11 in 2017, #30 in 2018) New entries: Bukauskas, Nova, Solis, Alcala, Cionel, Framber, Joe Perez, Corbin Martin, Straw, Jason Martin, Dawson, Deetz, Javier, Matijevic, Elian Rodriguez Dropouts: Trent Thornton (#21 in 2017), Brady Rodgers (#22), Lupe Chavez (#25), Tony Kemp (#27), Jose Luis Hernandez (#29) Re-entries: Ferrell (#20 in 2016) Graduations: Francis Martes (#1), Teoscar Hernandez (#7; graduated with Toronto), Yuli (#8), Derek Fisher (#9), James Hoyt (#23) Traded: Franklin Perez (#4), Moran (#9 but still in Astros section), Ramon Laureano (#13), Daz Cameron (#14), Jason Martin (#19, see Moran), Jake Rogers (#20) Former Astros Prospects in the Handbook Chris Lee - #10 in Orioles system Franklin Perez - #1 in Tigers system Jake Rogers - #5 in Tigers system Daz Cameron - #6 in Tigers system Jorge Guzman - #2 in Marlins system Brett Phillips - #7 in Brewers system Jake Nottingham - #23 in Brewers system Adrian Houser - listed in bonus supplement for the Brewers Albert Abreu - #6 in Yankees system Ramon Laureano - #30 in A's system Thomas Eshelman - #27 in Phillies system
I took a few hours this weekend to pull advanced 2017 MiLB stats from Fangraphs and do some analysis. I ended up re-ranking and re-grading all the prospects in the system after creating a model that incorporates those stats and a couple of other factors I think are most important in predicting a prospect’s success. For position player prospects, I used Bonus Amount, Age Relative to League, defensive position (with either plus or not), K %, BB%, ISO, and SB/150. I limited the model to using stats for players who had at least 140 PA at a level. I converted each of those to a standard value (with different weights applied) so they add up to a potential max of 80, with the goal being to generate a grade that could be compared to the way most prospect sites do it. I did the same thing for pitching prospects, instead using Bonus Amount, Age Relative to League, K%, BB%, and HR/9, and limiting to levels where a pitcher threw at least 30 innings. The results were interesting to me. They aligned very closely with the industry consensus, with Forrest Whitley (grade 60), Franklin Perez (50), and Rogelio Armenteros (50) topping the pitching prospects list and Kyle Tucker (60), Daz Cameron (60), and Derek Fisher (55) topping the position player list. Rather than rehash that those prospects are good, I will instead highlight some things I noticed that bucked the industry consensus. Position Players the fared better than expected: Jonathan Arauz was graded very highly by this model (grade 55, 3rd in the system for position players). He has ability to play the middle infield, he’s been very young for his league, he rarely strikes out, and he can draw walks. He does not show speed as a tool and he does not hit for power. But given his age, the power may come. I was not as high on Arauz as some public sites who have ranked him in the top 20 in the system, but this changed my mind. Freudis Nova also received a 55 grade. This should be discounted, as my model applied the same weight to DSL statistics as every other level, so players who hit well in the DSL (especially 17 year olds who received large bonuses) are probably overrated. However, Nova sports plus defense at SS, decent bb/k rates, and was one of the largest bonus recipients in the 2016 class. He’s probably more of a 50 grade prospect, but certainly I can see why BA had him in the top 10. Other DSL middle infielders who fared well in this model are Yorbin Cueta (50), Deury Carrasco (50), Ramiro Rodriguez, Jose Alvarez, and Ronaldo Urdaneta (all 45s). The other grade 50 prospects were Myles Straw, Abraham Toro-Hernandez, and Jake Rogers. Other grade 45 prospects were Mike Papierski, Colin Moran, Yordan Alvarez, and Kristian Trompiz. Interestingly, Toro would be a grade 60 prospect if he received a plus defensive rating at catcher (instead of at 3B). Papierski had a tremendous walk rate, which along with his defensive value at catcher and his power left him as the top rated catching prospect in the system. Trompiz benefitted from a low strikeout rate, ability to play SS, and ability to steal bases. He’s been inconsistent but outside of a total lack of power, he’s a actually a pretty high ceiling prospect. Position players who fared worse than expected: Gilberto Celestino only received a 40 grade due to middling numbers in a league in which he was only slightly younger than average. A good showing in full season A ball this year would give him a huge boost. JD Davis received a 30 grade because he was old for AA, struck out quite a bit, has only average defensive value, didn’t have a high walk rate, and doesn’t have speed on his side. I suspect he will get a big boost when he rakes in AAA this season. JJ Matijevic also received a 30 grade due to his weak performance in low A. A 27% strikeout rate combined with low defensive value doomed him. If he rakes in full season ball, he will get a huge boost, especially if he is able to play 2B. Pitchers who fared better than expected: Patrick Sandoval received a 55 grade after throwing 40 good innings in A ball as a 20 year old. He benefitted from a large bonus, being young for his league, a high strikeout rate (10.8/9), and avoiding HR. He should probably be the top sleeper pick among pitching prospects entering 2018. Alex Winkelman’s dominant performance in High A earned him a 50 grade. He maxed out his value for ability to get strikeouts while almost maxing out in avoiding walks and HR. He’ll be one to watch in Corpus this season. Yoanys Quiala received a grade 45, 9th among pitching prospects. He was extremely good in High A with almost 5 times as many K’s as walks. That combined with his relatively large bonus makes him one to watch in AA this season. Riley Ferrell and Cionel Perez both received 50 grades, while Dean Deetz received a 45 grade. Pitching prospects who fared worse than expected: Hector Perez received an awful grade of 25. He was heavily penalized for allowing almost 7 walks per 9 IP. He also was not a bonus recipient. I actually don’t disagree with the evaluation because if he can’t exhibit better control he will not even make ti as a big league reliever. However, he should be noted as an extremely high ceiling prospect since it wouldn’t be unheard of for him to improve dramatically in that regard, at which point he would be a potential top of the rotation arm. Francis Martes is in the same boat as Perez; his 7.79 bb/9 in AAA doomed him. He has the same upside as Perez and certainly is underrated by my model. Jorge Alcala also received a low grade (20). He was dinged for his middling High A #s. The 30 IP cutoff removed quite a few guys from the list. Top draft picks JB Bukauskas and Corbin Martin weren’t graded. David Paulino missed the cut as well. Lowering the cutoff to 20 IP gives Martin a 50 grade, so all 3 of those guys should still be highly rated. Brett Adcock and Brandon Bielak receive 55 grades if the threshold is lowered to 20 IP. Adcock dominated in QC and Bielak in TC. Both are breakout candidates this coming season. Jairo Solis and Nivaldo Rodriguez receive 45 grades under the lower cutoff. Solis may be the biggest breakout candidate in the pitching side of the farm. And now, some lists. Top 10 guys with the best chance to enter Top 100 lists at season’s end: 1. Abraham Toro-Hernandez 2. Jairo Solis 3. Myles Straw 4. Corbin Martin 5. Cionel Perez 6. Freudis Nova 7. Patrick Sandoval 8. Cristian Javier 9. Michael Papierski 10. Gilberto Celestino 25 Man All Prospect Team: C Papierski 1B Sean Mendoza 2B Arauz SS Nova 3B Toro-Hernandez RF Tucker CF Straw LF Alvarez HM/Bench: Cueta, Joe Perez, Nathan Perry, Rodriguez, Ronnie Dawson Rotation: Whitley, Bukauskas, Martin, Solis, C Perez HM/Bullpen: Bielak, Sandoval, Armenteros, Adcock, Deetz, Quiala, Javier, Paulino Revised Top 30 Astros Prospects for 2018: 1. RHP Forrest Whitley 2. OF Kyle Tucker 3. OF/1B Yordan Alvarez 4. RHP JB Bukauskas 5. IF Freudis Nova 6. RHP Jairo Solis 7. LHP Cionel Perez 8. RHP David Paulino 9. RHP Corbin Martin 10. IF Jonathan Arauz 11. 3B/C Abraham Toro-Hernandez 12. OF Myles Straw 13. OF Gilberto Celestino 14. 3B Joe Perez 15. LHP Brett Adcock 16. RHP Rogelio Armenteros 17. LHP Patrick Sandoval 18. OF Ronnie Dawson 19. 3B JD Davis 20. RHP Riley Ferrell 21. RHP Hector Perez 22. RHP Jorge Alcala 23. C Michael Papierski 24. IF MiguelAngel Sierra 25. C Garrett Stubbs 26. OF/IF JJ Matijevic 27. RHP Dean Deetz 28. RHP Brandon Bielak 29. IF Yorbin Cueta 30. RHP Yoanys Quiala Honorable Mention: IF Deury Carrasco, OF Ramiro Rodriguez, C Nathan Perry, C Jose Alvarez, IF Ronaldo Urdaneta, SS Kristian Trompiz, LHP Alex Winkelman, RHP Nivaldo Rodriguez, RHP Cristian Javier, RHP Nick Hernandez
Easily Whitley. Whitley has a chance to be as good as they get. Martes has ToR potential but it’s not really close imho.
I always pride myself in thinking I’m at the top in regards to knowing the ins and outs of baseball. Then I read this. Nice little piece of humble pie to get me going this am. Great post.
What’s insane is that this work I did is utter rubbish compared to what the folks in the media (like fangraphs and Baseball America) do, much less compared to what the actual organizations are doing. I’d give my left arm to be able to sit in Mike Fast’s office for a few weeks, but I also know the analysis they do would be beyond my comprehension.
Yea, that's a bit terrifying. Max effort weight room style bullpen sessions are something I would STRONGLY discourage.