How thankful are you now that the Melo trade didn't happen?

You are actually describing why Melo will opt out. Melo will opt out in order to make more total money for the remainder of his career. Even though his 1st yr may not match the last opt-in year, he'll be negotiating it and banking it one yr earlier, so that the future years under a new contract signed now will make up for it,

Reread your post, and think about what I just said, together with your prediction that in two years he'll have trouble signing for anything big. Better to sign that one last contract now, than later.

 

If every player aged as well as Lebron we wouldn't need new players.

 

FIFY

 

No one is happier then Mike himself.Everytime Melos name came up in the CP3 introduction press conference his faced cringed with stress.

 

I see your point and already factored that in. Typically that is what you would do but he is getting $28M guaranteed and no team wants him. This is a special situation. Opting out kills his leverage and he is friends with Wade and knows how that worked out for him. That is why he is no longer on the Heat. Do you really drop down to 4/$32M or 4/$36M when that same contract is available the next season? OKC is desperate and will have to resign him to that deal anyway after next season. It also gives you flexibility. I think he actually gets a better contract once George is gone because he will have a better season (higher usage) as the #2 option. I think the disconnect is that you believe that is more like a 4/$64 contract. Even still he picks up his $28 this year and gets his $32/$36M next year. No change/less risk. Melo's knees are bad. He may not be able to finish the next contract as he wears down.

The George/Melo experiment was all for the purpose of getting Westbrook to resign. I actually won't be surprised if Presti looks to trade both before the deadline as the weight of this debacle craters. The problem is his only taker for the package is the Rockets and it will be a fire sale. I still cannot see Presti dealing with us under any circumstances. Both players contracts have no value except Bird rights. George might stay on the Rockets but if traded to any other team he is going to LA and may still go regardless. If you're Morey do you wait for a longshot LBJ or a flawed sure thing George/Melo? Interesting to see how it plays out.

 

Yes, that's a fair way of explaining my take. Also, by not opting-out while still healthy he's risking a lot playing on that last year, imso.

Just to visualize how the financial math works

Here's your scenario, Opt-in then 4yrs
--------------------------------------------------

$28m + $9m + $9m + $9m + $9m = $64m​

This is an equal Opt out to sign a 4yr now, while taking a Team Friendly huge discount on first year vs the Opt-in
-------------------------------------------------

$16m + $16m + $16m + $16m = $64m
​

I think he actually makes more than $64m, or maybe the same in a 3yr deal. We can do the math many ways

On the open market, and with a desperate OKC who must keep at least one of PG or Melo, someone will give him my scenario, especially for that 1st yr discount. And note, 33yr old Redick got a 1yr $23m last year, so I just don't see Melo having any trouble getting someone to overpay (via a 4yr contract) just to secure his next 1 or 2 yrs.

That said, I think he opts-in *if* OKC figures this out and has a strong playoff run.

 

I could be wrong. But I seriously doubt that he can get a 4-year 64M deal.

Melo is on the downhill side of his career. This will be especially clear if he is not performing up to par this season. Some people might give him some slack of blaming Westbrook for his issues. But I would bet most scouts would notice his losing a step or two. Would any team want to sign him for more than 2 years?

I think a 2-year 35M deal is a more likely scenario. Is he going to risk 28M for that? I think either way is a gamble for him, and for whoever is going to sign after this seasonor after the next. It'll be interesting to watch how he plays his hand at this point of his career.

 

I was just showing that vs the other unlikely scenario of FIVE more years for $64m. Neither are any more or less likely. If you shrink both down to 3 yrs, you get this:

$28m + 9 +9 = $46m
$16m + 16 + 16 = $48m

We can do this many different ways, and I'm still convinced (especially from what 33yr old Redick got) he makes more by Opting Out and signing his last deal as soon as possible. What do you think he can get 2 summers from now if he Ops-In? What if he gets injured?? By risk.

From OKC's perspective, it's all about negotiating away that big next year ... basically, taking away the balloon payment. You have to pay for that right.

For everyone else on the market, you are bidding for the right to have Melo's next 2 yrs, in exchange for that, I'm betting Melo's agent forces you to add more than 2yrs to it. Doesn't matter what we think his life-expectancy is, the bidders will be bidding on rights to his next year....similar to Redick, but bigger numbers.

Again, it is a big risk for Melo to go into this summer healthy, and start next year with only 1yr left guaranteed.

 

We're pretty close. I think one year more on Melo really doesn't make a difference and may INCREASE his contract due to usage. I don't think Melo now is a 4/64 guy but MAYBE he gets that from the Thunder. My point was that if he can get it this year he can get it or close to it next year. So in reality apples to oranges shown above in your example he has no risk but if using your contract and it is apple to apples your 4/64 becomes 5/92 or at worst 5/76 or 4/64 (1+3). Melo can Amare with the best of them.

I think the Redick example was an outlier because he was coming to Houston and Philly couldn't do anything else with the cap space and it didn't impact future years. The Lakers bombing out on FA seem to me the only competitor to OKC for Melo but I think they are getting PG13. I just don't see the interest out there where his agent tells him it is safe to opt out. He has to have run through those deals and they don't exist. Cavs gone, Rockets gone, NY persona non grata. It's literally OKC or a desperate Magic. Magic may not be good at his job but PG13 may make him lucky after the Lonzo disaster.

I know Melo HATES playing there and will opt-in anyway. This is 100% financial. OKC is not making the playoffs, Jazz are a better team but regardless the 8th seed is enough to make Presti move before the deadline. Presti accomplished the survival of the franchise mission, retain Westbrook. Now he may look to dump the Melo/George package but there is only one taker. I don't think he does the deal and don't see anything materializing for him elsewhere. We'll see how desperate he gets.

 

One telling thing of why I'm glad we don't have Anthony. If the media asked Chris Paul about coming off the bench he would say "Whatever the Rockets need". Wade for Cleveland did come off the bench voluntarily. Anthony just laughed in their faces.

Can't have that ego on our team killing chemistry. So glad we dodged a bullet with him.

 

It all comes down to how much he can get in the FA market after this season. And we can't really tell at this point. It will have a lot to do with how healthy he is and more importantly, on what level he has shown he can still play. I am sure his agent is going to get a feel by the end of the season whether he should opt in or out.

Like I said, I doubt that he will get more than 35M. It doesn't matter how many years that money is stretched into. If he can get a short and fat contract, maybe he will hope that after two more years he can still get one more signing.

 

You want to avoid cancer at all cost. Well...Melo is the Cancer!!

 

my point in what you quoted was he if he is injury free, he risks injury next year. Best to cash in when you are injury free. I'm not talking about quality of play when healthy.

If he goes into next year on only one yr guaranteed salary, he risks that being basically his last paycheck if he goes down like Kobe did and others.

This isn't a question of whether or not that's something his agent will assess at end of the year, they definitely will talk about that, no question.

 

I understand the health part. But you don't think it also has to do with his quality of play?

If he plays reasonably well, I agree that opting out might net him more money long term. But if he is really bad this season, he might not be able to convince even the Thunder to sign him for big money. If he opts in, he pockets the 28 million and have one more year to prove himself worth another good contract.

 

Did you see that rebounding, you were not going to get that from Melo. Still, extremely happy no matter what Melo puts up.

 

He looks really unhappy in OKC.

 

Welp! Y'all spoke way too soon.

 

Not thankful at all. Ryan Anderson sucks.

Hopefully Ryan can be had for Melo at the deadline after OKC sees that there is no way Melo stays next year.

 

If Melo is cancer, what's Anderson?

Birth defect?

 

Melo's been balling out lately for OKC. He didn't know his role in the beginning of the season. He kept holding onto the ball and played ISO ball like he did in NYC and Denver but now he's playing more like Olympic Melo. OKC are going to be dangerous in the playoffs because they are so good defensively.

I'd much rather have Melo than Anderson right now.