Sorry - on 2nd reading, my post was unclear. I meant before the season started -- Peacock being out of options was pitching for his job in spring training. I think Fiers (and probably Peacock too unless they decide he's more valuable for the pen) has certainly jumped Musgrove in the pecking order.
Fiers ground ball transformation has been absolutely astonishing. His first 9 starts of the year he has an 0.79 GB/FB ratio. In the last 5 his GB/FB has been 1.71. His hard contact% has gone from over 30% to under 20%. He made an adjustment, and it appears to have had a seismic effect on the quality of contact. His K/BB hasn't changed, but hitters simply aren't able to drive the ball. If he can maintain this he's gonna be a valuable starter. The more I see of Peacock, the more I want him in a Devo type role, because his results are pretty stark, as a starter 1st PA, hitters have a .329 OPS 2nd PA, hitters have a .768 OPS 3rd PA, hitters have a 1.208 OPS (only 14 PA FWIW) 1st PA as a reliever, hitters have a .436 OPS He clearly has value, but I'm not sure if a traditional starting role is best for him or the team once guys start getting healthy.
I can't imagine any scenario Musgrove stays once everyone is back. He's not performing as well as his competition and he has options. I think Peacock is better suited for the pen than Fiers and that's how they'll proceed...especially as a hedge for the guys coming off long DL stints. They can pair him with McHugh for his first few starts until he's ready to go 100+ pitches.
I agree with you...I just wonder if the reason Peacock struggles the 3rd time through the order due to stuff or stamina. If it's purely stamina, then I would expect him to get better and better throughout the season going deeper into games as his arm gets stretched out.
Astros Stark? Peacock's overall OPS (0.629) as a starter is still basically the same as Fiers's last 4-5 starts. Astros should win most games Astros starter goes two times through the order with a ~0.600 OPS (that's Chris Sale for 5 innings) provided they have Keuchel soaking up some innings. Peacock wasn't stretched out when he first started getting starts so his stats may be a little skewed as he has been pushed farther than his arm was ready to go. Last two games (only ones Peacock got to 90 pitches), he has given up an OPS of 0.457 in 2nd time through the order. Innings are the only thing holding him back and likely regression.
You're right, it may be about fatigue more than the 2nd time through. But he's only gotten through 6 once, and he's only gotten through 5 twice. A pitcher who can't at least get through 5 regularly is an issue regardless of why it isn't happening. He's gonna get a least a few more starts, but if he continues to dominate through 3 or 4, and then gets very wobbly he's not best suited as a starter.
Still thinking the best case scenario is to have Fiers, Peacock, and Devenski all available as multi-inning guys in the bullpen with Feliz, Gregerson, Harris, and Giles as setup/closers, with 1 more guy as either a specialist (Sipp) or just an extra arm (Hoyt). Keuchel, McCullers, TBD, Morton, and McHugh, if all are healthy, is a very salty rotation.
FWIW, I should add that I would be fine with a tandem system for one spot in the rotation. If they just said Morton and Peacock are gonna pitch every 5th day, I would be fine with that. 8 innings of what should be overpowering results is worth the extra roster spot, but if we are going with a traditional 5 man, Peacock has to show he can regularly get us safely into the 6th.
MLB starters average 5.5 innings/start. Peacock is at 4.7. I'm decently confident he will be able to get close to average in inning/start. I'm more worried about him just having an incredible hot streak which wouldn't be good if he was in pen or starting. I wouldn't say tandem, but I expect if Astros get healthy, they should have a fresh arm up from AAA any time he starts until he can get endurance up. First Place Problems. All your starters are down and you are worried about who sticks in the rotation as the injury replacements are pitching better than almost every other team's starters over the past 30 days. Not sure what Astros do with Fiers and Peacock as both look to have earned more starts.
Mike Fiers is another case. Over the first month of the season, he recorded a 5.64 ERA; in eight starts since May 14, he’s produced a 2.64 mark. That date isn’t arbitrary: it’s the day on which Fiers began integrating a sinker into his fastball mix. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-astros-grand-fastball-experiment/ I had noticed Fiers was throwing more 2S fastballs lately, but didn't realize it has been going on this long and to this extent. Article has some good quotes from both hitters and pitchers. The integrating a sinker link shows his change in fastball usage. Once there, if you click on the GBs per BIP link...you will see that his sinker gets almost double the grounders as his 4 seamer (shocker, I know).
It sucks that four of our starters are on the DL right now but man this is incredible experience for prospects like Martes and Paulino. Good teams usually can't afford (or don't have the room) to give their young guys starts.
Can't read it all just yet, but I heard on the radio his last start that he shelved everything but the 2-seamer, curve, change. As much crap as I (and everyone else) deservedly gave him, he's been a revelation recently. He and Peacock are holding the starting 5 together, which is something I never thought I'd hear or say.
I'm as shocked as anyone. I've been breathing a sigh of relief the last few weeks when his name pops up on the schedule. And Peacock... those strikeout #'s...
Fiers has been trash until McCullers showed him how to throw a curve. That with his two seamer has made him a great 4-5 starter. I don't think McHugh will recover to what he was. I think you should send Paulino and Martes down as soon as possible. They enhanced their value in my opinion.
Do you have any solid info on that McHugh take? Not questioning you or anything, just curious to see if you've heard something specific that we haven't. I'm worried as hell... I know he's not an ace or anything, but he's always been a good, durable innings-eater. More than anything though, I've always been a fan. So cool how we plucked him out of near obscurity because he had a good spin rate on his curve and groomed him into a legit #3 pitcher.
Dead arm is a rotator cuff injury. It's highly unlikely he will have the same form he had before. I've personally felt the effects of it in competitive baseball and dropped from 94-95 to 90-92. Professionally it dropped CC and Adam Wainwright.
Ugh... not good. Thanks for the info, though. I've had him slotted in my mind as someone that we were not going to get back this year... prepare for the worst, hope for the best I guess.
His arm angle is different. The Astros coaching staff has been working with him on it after the HORRIBLE beginning to the season.
