In a theoretical world where you have limitless resources, sure - that data might be useful. But the amount of work needed to compare 50 states and hundreds of cities both over time, and climate, stay-at-home policies, actual social distancing in reality, travel to/from the cities, demographics/health of population, etc is immense. And the likelihood of getting any actionable data is low. You'll get correlations - but causation will be almost impossible to determine. If Austin had a 3.0 Ro in the last week of March but a 2.0 in the last week of April, is it due to stay-at-home policies? Weather? Did people come in from SXSW that didn't cancel and cause a spike? There are simply too many variables to determine policy. We can't even look at basic testing and case data and figure out what policies are having what impact - it's really unlikely you're going to get anything useful out of spread data. Those limited resources likely have higher priority projects to work on. Good Ro data almost always come long after a disease cycles through the population. We're not even seeing good national or global Ro data right now on Covid - no way you're going to get anything useful at a microlevel. FWIW, there is research out there showing humidity does play a role: https://www.medicalnewstoday.com/articles/how-humidity-may-affect-covid-19-outcome
One piece of news says that the Guangdong province -- which is the richest and most populous province in China -- has performed over 10.41 million tests as of May 11 and there have been 1589 confirmed cases. I have not seen numbers released for other provinces. Another piece of news recently says Wuhan is going to test all of its 11 million residents by the end of this week.
We’ve seen it in Harris County, and now more places. Just not enough people to test. https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...3297de-8bcd-11ea-8ac1-bfb250876b7a_story.html
Some positives shown with Moderna vaccine. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/18/health/coronavirus-vaccine-moderna.html Moderna Coronavirus Vaccine Trial Shows Promising Early Results The company said its preliminary test in 8 healthy volunteers was safe. It is on an accelerated timetable to begin a larger human trial soon. The first coronavirus vaccine to be tested in people appears to be safe and able to stimulate an immune response against the virus, its manufacturer, Moderna, announced on Monday. The findings are based on results from the first eight people who each received two doses of the experimental vaccine, starting in March. Those people, healthy volunteers ages 18 to 55, made antibodies that were then tested in infected cells in the lab, and were able to stop the virus from replicating — the key requirement for an effective vaccine. The levels of those so-called neutralizing antibodies matched or exceeded the levels found in patients who had recovered after contracting the virus in the community. Though encouraging, the findings do not prove that the vaccine works. Only larger, longer studies can determine whether it can actually prevent people in the real world from getting sick. Moderna’s technology, involving genetic material from the virus called mRNA, is relatively new and has yet to produce any approved vaccine. Early results from a handful of test subjects may not seem like much to go on, but the world is desperate for good news. With the highly contagious virus defying most efforts to control its spread, vaccines are seen as the best and perhaps only hope of stopping or even slowing a pandemic that has sickened nearly 5 million people worldwide, killed 315,000 and locked down entire countries, paralyzing their economies. helped buoy Wall Street, rallying the markets. In recent months, Moderna’s stock has soared as it pursued a vaccine, and it was up more than 25 percent by mid-afternoon on Monday. Pfizer and its German partner BioNTech, the Chinese company CanSino, and the University of Oxford, working with AstraZeneca. billions of doses will far outstrip the production capacity of any one manufacturer. At the same time, there is widespread concern that haste could compromise safety, resulting in a vaccine that does not work or even harms patients. Vaccines have generally taken years, sometimes a decade or more, to reach the market. A significant part of that time is taken up by large trials in thousands of subjects, waiting to see if the vaccine prevents infection and making sure that it does not make the illness worse — a known, though uncommon effect called disease enhancement. Moderna’s early stage of testing, phase 1, is continuing, Two more age groups, 55 to 70, and 71 and over, are now being enrolled to test the vaccine. The actual data from these preliminary tests has not been published or shared publicly, but has been submitted to the Food and Drug Administration, which does not comment on trials still in progress. The company said it hoped to make data publicly available this summer, when its final stage of testing is due to begin. Food and Drug Administration gave Moderna the go-ahead for the second phase earlier this month. If those trials go well, a vaccine could become available for widespread use by the end of this year or early 2021, Dr. Tal Zaks, Moderna’s chief medical officer, said in an interview. How many doses might be ready is not clear, but Dr. Zaks said, “We’re doing our best to make it as many millions as possible.” Two shots, four weeks apart, are likely to be needed, meaning that however many doses are produced, only half that number of people can be vaccinated. There is no proven treatment or vaccine against the coronavirus at this time. Dozens of companies in the United States, Europe and China are racing to produce vaccines, using different methods. Some use the same technology as Moderna, which involves a segment of genetic material from the virus called messenger RNA, or mRNA. Moderna said that additional tests in mice that were vaccinated and then infected found that the vaccine could prevent the virus from replicating in their lungs, and that the animals had levels of neutralizing antibodies comparable to those in the people who had received the vaccine. a spikelike protein on the surface of the virus that attaches to human cells, helping the virus to invade them. The idea behind Moderna’s vaccine is to inject the mRNA for part of the spike protein and have it slip into the cells of a healthy person, which then follow its instruction and crank out the viral protein. That protein should act as a red flag for the immune system, stimulating it to produce antibodies that will prevent infection by blocking the action of the spike if the person is exposed to the virus.
Over 100 Million in China’s Northeast Face Renewed Lockdown https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/...k-under-lockdown?in_source=amp_trending_now_1
I don't care what he says about forgiveness. I would never be able to get over giving it to my family members and having them pass. I know I would live with that guilt forever.
China said it’s just a few cases. Nothing to see here. But seriously it is odd that they are doing this.
It appears that their has been an uptick in sleestak interest in this post. The era of solitude is alive and well apparently. They are not friendly.
Totally agree. It's like the rest of the planet is doing it all over again with the see-no-evil/hear-no-evil routine, this time hoping re-opening works for them even if it looks like there are problems (again) in China. And we can't trust the caseload data from them. Of that, I feel confident. (Daddy wants to rebalance his retirement accounts, TBH.)
China puts city of Shulan under Wuhan-style lockdown after fresh Covid-19 cases https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.th...le-lockdown-after-fresh-covid-19-cases?espv=1
I feel like I might be able to live with myself if I took every reasonable precaution, but to be this guy and to have not taken any precautions whatsoever... yeah, I couldn't live with myself. There are a lot of nuts out there that can pray just about anything away though apparently.
"All villages and residential compounds in the city were closed off, and only one person from each household allowed out for two hours every second day for essentials." "In Shulan, residential compounds were restricted to just one entry and exit for emergency vehicles, and banned non-residents and vehicles from entering. If there are confirmed cases in a community residence, no one can enter or leave." Spoiler
One thing to note the PRC lockdowns are for far fewer new cases than we get on a daily basis. From the article in B-Bob's post they are reporting 23 new infections, 17 of which were asymptomatic. Yesterday we had over 2,000 new infections reported. The PRC is still fighting a containment strategy. We've pretty much given up on that.
well, not to be cynical, but I fear the key word is "reporting" some # of cases. With 27 cases and good contact tracing, it seems like real overkill to do what they're doing to over 1 million people.
Nobody is concerned that tracing is something you do when you are ages 3-5. But our entire Covid plan depends on it. It's almost like we are being run by children if I didn't know any better. 1. Wash your hands. 2. Don't touch your face. 3. Trace. Next up. 4. Toilet training and create a tin can phone.
