MIAMI, Oct 17 (Reuters) - The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season tied a 72-year-old record for busiest ever with the formation of Tropical Storm Wilma on Monday. Wilma, which was drifting slowly through the northwestern Caribbean Sea, became the 21st tropical storm or hurricane of the season, matching the record set in 1933. Forecasters said it could reach the Gulf of Mexico later in the week and could threaten the storm-ravaged U.S. Gulf Coast. At 8 a.m. (1200 GMT), the center of Wilma was about 205 miles (330 km) southeast of Grand Cayman, the largest island in the Cayman Islands, a British colony south of Cuba, the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. It was moving south at about 5 mph (8 kph) but was expected to move erratically to the southwest or west in the next 24 hours, forecasters said. Storm alerts were in effect for the Cayman Islands. Maximum sustained winds were 40 mph (64 kph) and forecasters said Wilma could become a hurricane in the next three days. The hurricane center's probable long-range track had Wilma crossing the tip of Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula and emerging into the gulf late on Friday or early on Saturday. The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season has been one of the worst ever. In addition to its record-tying 21 storms, the season produced Hurricane Katrina, which is likely to be the most expensive storm in history. At one point a Category 5 hurricane, the strongest on the five-stage hurricane scale, Katrina swamped the levees protecting New Orleans and flooded the famed jazz city, causing insured damage estimated at more than $30 billion and killing more than 1,200 people. Katrina's damage toll is likely to exceed that of Hurricane Andrew, which caused more than $25 billion in damage when it hit southern Florida in 1992. The naming of Wilma -- tropical cyclones are given names when sustained winds reach 39 mph (63 kph) -- meant the hurricane center has reached the end of its seasonal list of male and female names. If more tropical storms form this season, forecasters will begin using the Greek alphabet, starting with Alpha.
The majority of the models have this thing entering the Gulf and making landfall down the peninsula of Florida. A couple of stray models have it going west directly into Mexico. High pressure is our hero, again.
Florida? Damn, that's a pretty big U-Turn... I heard somebody say that a hurrican or tropical storm has never hit Texas after October 15, because of the Easterlies (or is it Westerlies?) How's the water temperature in the Gulf these days? I'm thinking that it's too cool for anything to develop beyond a category 2, but then again, I'm not a professional meteorologist like Jeff or MadMax.
i'm assuming it's cooler now than it was for Rita and Katrina. notice it's cooler as you approach most of the gulf coast. here are the computer models so far:
swoly -- excellent point! i loved hearing all the meterologists saying there was no energy in the Gulf for Rita to really become a monster. she went Cat 4 the next day. thanks, guys.
Here's a link to an update of the models as of this morning: http://skeetobiteweather.com/picservice.asp?t=m&m=24
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov is your friend. I had to transload an image thanks to ImageShack Free Image Hosting so I don't lose the prediction because they use the same URL for it. New Orleans, get ready.
It's actually not high pressure that is saving us in this case. It is low pressure. This time of year, fronts - cool and cold - are sweeping across the central US in rapid succession. We have one passing every couple of days, most making very little impact on our temperatures or weather. However, these frontal boundries usually have lows on them somewhere that tend to pull storms along. In this case, there are several frontal boundries that will pass in the vacinity of Wilma between now and Friday. It is likely that one of those will pick her up and pull the storm to the north and eventually northeast along the frontal boundry. It's incredible how busy this season has been. It is likely there will be another named storm this year - probably TS Alpha as they go to the Greek alphabet for storm names after running out of the traditional names.
Holy freaking crap. The latest vortex message shows an unbelievable pressure drop from Wilma. Down to 901mb already. That is absolutely freaking insane. This will be a cat 5 shortly. A record breaking cat 5. The good news it that there is no way this thing can sustain itself, but still Florida will probably be hit by yet another major hurricane. I can't begin to explain how crazy that pressure drop was in the last few hours. Here's the vortex message. URNT12 KNHC 190446 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 19/04:32:40Z B. 16 deg 52 min N 081 deg 56 min W C. 850 mb 516 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 116 deg 162 kt G. 15 deg 003 nm H. EXTRAP 901 mb I. 17 C/ 1537 m J. 26 C/ 1557 m K. 25 C/ NA L. CLOSED WALL M. C4 N. 12345/ 8 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 07 MAX FL WIND 162 KT NE QUAD 04:31:30 Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
CNN just reported that it's quickly jumped to a cat. 2 storm, and could quickly become worse. Right now it's southeast of the Yucatan, but is expected to curve back and go back through Florida. They were predicting that before it hits Florida it would jump up to a cat. 4 before and drop a little and hit Florida as a cat. 3.
Wow. I wasn't paying all that much attention to the CNN report. Wonder if I heard it wrong or they really reported it that way. I'd swear they did.
This is a historic hurricane. Latest vortex is out and this thing is only 5mb from being the most intense hurricane in the Atlantic Basin ever recorded. In about 24 hrs this went from a tropical storm to nipping at Hurricane Gilbert in intensity. It's absolutely mindboggling. The eye is freaking 2 miles wide! 2 miles! 175mph sustained winds at the surface. URNT12 KNHC 190648 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE A. 19/06:11:10Z B. 16 deg 58 min N 082 deg 11 min W C. 700 mb 2132 m D. NA kt E. NA deg nm F. 202 deg 168 kt G. 109 deg 003 nm H. EXTRAP 892 mb I. 10 C/ 3058 m J. 24 C/ 3034 m K. 11 C/ NA L. CLOSED M. C2 N. 12345/ 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF308 0724A WILMA OB 12 MAX FL WIND 168 KT SE QUAD 06:10:20 Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
Supplemental vortex message. The ride must be crazy for the hurricane hunters. Supplemental vortex: Storm Name: WILMA (24L) Mission Number: 07 Flight ID: AF308 Observation Number: 10 INITIATED CLIMB TO 700MB IN EYE OF HURRICANE FOR SAFETY
WTNT64 KNHC 190629 TCUAT4 HURRICANE WILMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 230 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2005 DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT HURRICANE WILMA HAS BECOME AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. THE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE MEASURED 175 MPH WINDS AND ESTIMATED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 892 MB. THIS IS THE LOWEST PRESSURE OBSERVED IN 2005 AND IS EQUIVALENT TO THE MINIMUM PRESSURE OF THE 1935 LABOR DAY HURRICANE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS. FORECASTER AVILA
