Assumptions Dwight takes up Asik's minutes and is at least as effective as Asik defensively. Asik only averages 20 minutes a game. Asik on/off the court value last year was a +7.8 per 48 minutes. Therefore his value per 20 minutes is 7.8 * 20/48 = 3.25 points The rockets points differential last year was 3.5. If you add the 3.25 from Asik to 3.5, you get a 6.75 average point differential which would be only behind Miami and Oklahoma City. This is without counting the positive effect of having Dwight on the offensive side of the ball or having them play lots of minutes together. The conclusion is that Asik is more important as a backup than any player we could likely get for him. Unless we get LMA or Love for just Asik and fillers, there is no point of trading him. This is the conclusion Morey came up with when he spoke about Asik last week. I'm sure he used a more sophisticated and accurate model.
Well, none of us is capable of doing this calculation, but working through it verbally this is what it would entail. To be right the following would have to be true: [The Overall Value of Keeping a Good Quality Backup Center] - [The Overall Value Lost in Not Upgrading the Starting PF] > 0 [(Value of Asik in 20mpg) - (Value of our backup big men aside from Asik in 20mpg)] - [(Value of Theoretical PF Upgrade in ~30mpg) - (Value of Current PF Starter over the same ~30mpg)] > 0 What cannot be assumed, however, is that Asik's per minute efficiency for the Rockets last year will be what he gives us next year. I'm sure Morey has kept these stats up, but perhaps they also believe that with fewer minutes he will get even BETTER than he was last year, since last year was the first time he had anywhere close to the kind of minutes they made him play. Conversely, it may also be the case that playing alongside all the backups and with a bit of loss of confidence at being demoted from starter, that he might get a little worse in his overall performance. There's a lot of X factors, not the least of which are the quality of PF we would be acquiring by dealing him and the quality our existing PF rotation. So all we can say for now is that Morey has not been blown away by an offer yet that would compel him to pull the trigger.
