[The Athletic] Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule: 3 NBA teams meet a key indicator for championship success

gift link, no paywall.

Phil Jackson’s 40-20 rule: These 3 NBA teams meet a key indicator for championship success

https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/70...hared_gift_article_copylink&smid=url-share-ta

excerpt:

For the teams that didn’t reach 40-before-20 status this season, history shows they’ll almost assuredly need to beat some combination of either the Thunder, Spurs or Pistons in order to claim a championship.

“The goal is always to be a 40-before-20 contender. But the next best thing is to be the team that can beat a 40-before-20 contender,” Murray said. “That’s what the 2021 Bucks did. That’s what the 2006 Miami Heat did, knocking off the Pistons to get to the NBA Finals and then beating the Dallas Mavericks in the Finals. The 2004 Pistons beat the Indiana Pacers to get to the Finals and set up the only NBA Finals in the 3-point line era that featured two teams that weren’t 40-before-20 contenders [against the Lakers]. The 1995 Rockets arguably had the toughest road to repeat in league history, going through 40-before-20 contenders in every round (Jazz, Suns, Spurs, Magic).”

Although the Nuggets, Cavaliers and Celtics hold strong title odds among teams that didn’t qualify for 40-before-20 status, the New York Knicks, Houston Rockets and Minnesota Timberwolves also remain dangerous with the postseason approaching.

“The Celtics have stayed relevant in the East with Jaylen Brown leading the way, and Jayson Tatum represents one of the most intriguing late season injury-return wild cards the league has seen in a long time,” Murray said. “The Knicks have the firepower and were just in the Conference Finals. The Rockets have Kevin Durant and a strong defense. The Nuggets won in 2023 and have the best offense in the league. The Cavaliers have played the best basketball in the league since New Year’s Day. And the Timberwolves have been to back-to-back Western Conference Finals.”
​

more at the leak

​