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Need some stats help!!!!

Discussion in 'BBS Hangout' started by Phillyrocket, Sep 20, 2009.

  1. Phillyrocket

    Phillyrocket Member

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    The size of the price discount offered by an industrial marketing manager varies according to order size. During the last quarter, the manager offered price discounts of 20% to one half of his customers and 30% to one-quarter of his customers, and no discount to the rest. He estimates that the probability of receiving a reorder this quarter is 0.90 if the customer received a 20% discount, 0.92 if the customer received a 30% discount, and 0.70 if the customer received no discount.

    a) If a customer is selected at random and is observed not to have reordered, what is the probability that this customer was offered no discount last quarter?
    b) If a customer is selected at random and is observed to have reordered, what is the probability that this customer was offered a 30% discount last quarter?


    I know I am not presenting this in the right way (formula) but can someone tell me if the logic is flawed? This is for part a)

    Discount # of Customers Reorder Will reorder Won't reorder
    20% 50 90% 45 5
    30% 25 92% 23 2
    0% 25 70% 17.5 7.5


    Probability randomly selected non reordering customer was offered no discount = 7.5%
     
  2. Phillyrocket

    Phillyrocket Member

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    Would b) just be 25 * .92 = 23%?
     
  3. ItsMyFault

    ItsMyFault Member

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    Moes would know the answer.
     
  4. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I believe your logic is flawed.

    Answer should be: 7.5 / (7.5 + 2 + 5 ) = 52%
     
  5. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    Nope, I get 20.5%.

    Edit: Scratch that. I thought b) was asking for the no discount case. Probability it was 30% discount would be 26.9% I believe.
     
  6. Phillyrocket

    Phillyrocket Member

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    Okay, I get you, we're looking at the probability among non reordering customers not ALL of the customers.

    Thanks!
     

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