Yao's injury shouldn't cripple Rockets' playoff hopes Hollinger By John Hollinger ESPN Insider (Archive) Insider Updated: February 26, 2008 * Comment * Email Tracy McGrady Layne Murdoch/NBAE via Getty Images With Yao out, Tracy McGrady needs to drive Houston to playing around .500 the rest of the way. Obviously, the loss of Yao Ming for the season is terrible news for the Houston Rockets, not to mention a slap to the egos of those of us who picked them to win the title. But the more immediate question today is: How will they fare without Yao? Can they hang on and still make the playoffs? The first instinct is to say no. It's a nine-team battle for the West's eight playoff spots, and with the conference being such a powerhouse it seems as though Houston is the obvious team to fall out of the race. But when we go through the math of the Rockets' schedule, a different conclusion emerges. Houston is 36-20 this season, with 26 games left to play. According to the Hollinger playoff odds, it will take 48 wins to make it to the postseason in the Western Conference. Thus, the Rockets need to go only 12-14 the rest of the way to have a good shot at qualifying for the playoffs. Given that they've been roughly a .500 team over the years when Yao doesn't play (28-34, to be exact) and that his teammates were playing extremely well at the time of the injury, 12-14 doesn't seem that daunting a task. That's especially true when you consider the remaining cupcakes on their slate. The Rockets have nine home games left against losing teams (Washington, Memphis, Indiana, New Jersey, Charlotte, Sacramento, Minnesota, Seattle and the Clippers). At a minimum, one would think they'll take seven of these. A few of the road games don't seem so daunting either: Seattle, the Clippers, Sacramento and Atlanta, for instance. Suppose they split those four. That's 9-4 out of those 13 games -- easily attainable provided Tracy McGrady doesn't join Yao on the sidelines. If so, that means Houston needs to go only 3-10 in the other13 games, five of which are at home. If they really want to help their odds, three of those games will be particularly meaningful. Houston still plays Golden State once and Denver twice. Wins in those games would help them gain ground overall, push down their competitors and perhaps win an extra tiebreaker or two. As of now, the Rockets are 1-1 against Denver, with two matchups to go -- and 1-2 versus Golden State, with one game to go. So, considering their schedule, I suspect they'll pull out a No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Furthermore, the Rockets have quality depth, unlike in some previous seasons. [+] Enlarge Hilton Armstrong and Carl Landry Layne Murdoch/Getty Images Rookie Carl Landry will be counted on for more inside work in Yao's absence. To fill in for Yao, there's Dikembe Mutombo, who fared well while Yao was out a year ago. Additionally, many of Yao's minutes will go to rookie Carl Landry who, unbelievably, leads the team in PER -- he averages 19.1 points and 12.8 rebounds per 40 minutes and is shooting 61.6 percent. I'm not saying he'll keep up such a prolific rate, but clearly he's not chopped liver. We should see Houston play small more often, with Shane Battier as a power forward and Landry, Luis Scola or Chuck Hayes as a center. Last week's trade for Bobby Jackson lets the Rockets do this more effectively because they have an additional creator in the backcourt. One way or another, I think they'll manage. So if you're a Denver or Golden State fan and think this injury has brought you a reprieve from the lottery, you might want to double-check that assumption. With a three-game lead and less than two months to play, Houston should be a playoff team, even without Yao. http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/insi...?columnist=hollinger_john&page=Rockets-080226 it was not insider
