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Forecasting Andersen's production his season

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by durvasa, Jul 16, 2009.

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  1. durvasa

    durvasa Member

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    I came across the article written by John Hollinger before the 2008 Draft on forecast Euroleague player's production:

    http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3460365&name=hollinger_john

    [rquoter]
    ...

    Fortunately, I have a system for converting Euroleague performance to NBA performance, one that's been uncanny in its accuracy in previous seasons. For instance, a year ago I projected a PER of 7.36 for Marco Belinelli, 15.16 for Juan Carlos Navarro and 16.27 for Luis Scola. The actual numbers were 8.23, 11.90 and 16.18, with only Navarro deviating from his projection. Previous seasons have shown similar accuracy.

    The reason this works is that there's a predictable relationship between a player's stats in the Euroleague -- the highest level of European basketball -- and what they'll be in the NBA. Crossing the Atlantic does the following to a player's results:

    • Scoring rate decreases 25 percent
    • Rebound rate increases by 18 percent (there are more missed shots in NBA play)
    • Assist rate increases by 31 percent (Euro scorers are tightwads with assists)
    • Shooting percentage drops by 12 percent
    • Overall, PER drops by 30 percent.

    ...

    The Hawks still own David Andersen's rights, and his new deal with CSKA Moscow would allow him to bolt after this season. Andersen's numbers again were solid -- 16.5/11.8 with a 15.0 PER -- but he's 28, so time's a-wasting.

    ...
    [/rquoter]

    So a year ago, Hollinger projected 16.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per 40 minutes for Andersen. Supposing Andersen gets 24 minutes per game next year (just a wild guess), that means he'd average about 10 ppg and 7 rpg.

    Is Hollinger's forecasts flawless? No, but he did get really close on Scola ... so I thought it was at least worth mentioning.

    What do you guys think Andersen will do for us? Put it however you like: in terms of stats, role, or just in words what you think his impact will be.

    My fear is that he turns out to be nothing more than a slightly taller Juwan Howard, so I'll set that as the over-under. If you like, specify over if you think he'll be better than Juwan, under if you think he'll be worse than Juwan (2006 version). I'll be optimistic and say over, for now.
     
    #1 durvasa, Jul 16, 2009
    1 person likes this.
  2. JeopardE

    JeopardE Member

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    He certainly looks a lot more athletic than Juwan ever was, for starters, and clearly has a better jumpshot. And I don't think Juwan ever projected to anything close to 10rpg/40.

    That's enough to make me take the over fairly confidently.

    I think he will be more than adequate offensively. Defensive matchups are what concern me.
     
    #2 JeopardE, Jul 16, 2009
  3. rockets934life

    rockets934life Member

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    10ppg/10rpg would make me very very happy!
     
    #3 rockets934life, Jul 16, 2009
  4. jVgOwnsYou

    jVgOwnsYou Member

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    I think its difficult to predict the numbers, but I'm definantly going to go with the under for 7 reb/gm. I think 10 ppg is a reasonable estimate mainly because between yao and tracy being out, ron and von(probably) leaving that's about 65 ppg that we're going to have to make up somehow. From what little i've seen, he has nice range for a 7 footer and a variety of shots around the basket.
     
    #4 jVgOwnsYou, Jul 16, 2009
  5. Depressio

    Depressio Member

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    Weird. Look what I posted 20 minutes earlier:

    http://bbs.clutchfans.net/showpost.php?p=4656746&postcount=43

    ... and I didn't even know about these numbers from Hollinger.
     
    #5 Depressio, Jul 16, 2009
  6. DaDakota

    DaDakota Arrest all Pedophiles
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    Great thread, I think he will be around 13ppg and 6 rebounds....while I expect Scola to really bump up to around 18-9...

    DD
     
    #6 DaDakota, Jul 16, 2009
  7. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    very close to what i was going to guess... but in how many minutes, DD? 13-6 in 36 minutes is a lot different than the same stats in 24.

    i'm guessing scola scores around 17-10 in almost 40 minutes, while andersen plays about 32 minutes and scores 12-6. that would leave 24 minutes in the post for landry off the bench.
     
    #7 smoothie, Jul 16, 2009
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