ESPN Insider-Rockets Analysis by Tim Legler

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A fearsome, or gruesome, foursome?

By Tim Legler
ESPN Insider

With the 2004-05 NBA season at its midpoint, let's talk about which teams are to be taken seriously the second half of the season. For the purposes of this discussion, a team must be a serious threat to have an impact in the postseason.

With that in mind, consider the four teams making up ESPN's Friday night doubleheader: The Mavericks visit the Pacers at 7 p.m. ET, followed by the Rockets at Timberwolves at 9:30 p.m.

Let's assess each team's potential for a playoff run. Which ones are genuine title contenders, and which ones are mere pretenders?

Mavericks

Of the four teams, the Mavericks clearly have the most upside in terms of making a splash in April and May (the NBA Finals are in June and the Mavs must get by the Spurs to make that happen).

Facing the prospect of another postseason failure, the Mavericks decided to change the makeup of their team, primarily from a defensive stand point. After losing Steve Nash to free agency, the Mavs addressed their needs at the point by signing Jason Terry from the Hawks and drafting Devin Harris in the first round.

While Nash has enjoyed the finest year of his career with the Phoenix Suns, Terry and Harris have given the Mavericks a better presence defensively and, along with Marquis Daniels and Josh Howard, more quickness on the perimeter. Great defensive teams have the ability to pressure opposing teams' point guards and disrupt timing and offensive sets. The Mavericks now have that ability, although they have taken a small step back in terms of decision making.


With Dampier (right) in the lowpost, the Mavs have their first legitimate center in ages.
The Mavs also addressed their lack of an interior presence by signing Erick Dampier from the Warriors in the offseason. Dampier gives the Mavericks something they have sorely lacked during their recent run. He not only provides a back line defender capable of protecting the rim, he is also active on both backboards and contributes roughly 10 points per night.

Despite their additions, however, Dirk Nowitzki is the main reason the Mavericks are a team that will give any Western Conference team trouble (other than San Antonio) in the playoffs. Nowitzki (27 ppg, 10 rbs) is having the best year of his career. He has embraced the increased offensive responsibility that has come his way due to Nash's departure and elevated himself to one of the top three shooters in the NBA, along with Ray Allen and Peja Stojakovic. More importantly, he has improved his effort defensively and become more of a leader by word and example.

Pacers

Of the four teams, the Pacers are the biggest work in progress. The final chapter won't be written on this team until well after the All-Star break.

They deserve time before passing judgment due to the fact that they have had to incorporate Jermaine O'Neal and Stephen Jackson, their first- and third-leading scorers, respectively, back into the lineup over the past few weeks. As a result, the synchronicity and efficiency of their offense will take time to jel.



On the bright side, the Pacers will have a few more options at their disposal when they get their entire roster on the floor for an extended period of time. Fred Jones, Reggie Miller, James Jones, and Jamaal Tinsley all showed the ability to score in bursts and carry the offensive load in the absence of O'Neal, their focal point offensively.

Without Ron Artest, however, the Pacers will have a difficult time navigating their way out of the Eastern Conference.

His defensive prowess, along with his ability to take the best wing players in the East down on the block and make them work defensively, is something the Pacers will miss when the game slows down in the playoffs. While no team will relish the prospect of facing them in the first round, a long playoff run is unlikely for the Pacers.

Rockets

It took longer than expected. It also took some tinkering with their roster. But, the Rockets finally are getting their act together. That doesn't necessarily mean they can compete for the Western Conference title, but at least they can make things interesting.


If the Rockets have underachieved to this point, it certainly isn't the fault of Tracy McGrady. He has delivered as the scoring machine he was advertised to be after being acquired from the Orlando Magic in a trade that sent Steve Francis, Cuttino Mobley, and Kelvin Cato to Disney World. McGrady has been a more vocal leader and has done a nice job of getting his teammates involved on a more regular basis than he did in Orlando.
The other half of the Rockets' dynamic duo, Yao Ming, has been solid and fairly consistent. The problem with that is he is 7-5, agile, and very skilled. That should translate into a lot more than solid and consistent. That description should be of a dominant player. Solid and consistent should be used for guys like Juwan Howard.

It is becoming evident that Yao might never develop into the force most of us expected when he came into the league 2½ years ago. He might not ever come to the arena with the competitive desire to be the best player on the floor and dominate other centers every night, rather than occasionally. As a result, the Rockets will struggle to beat any of the Western Conference's elite teams.

Although the acquisitions of Bob Sura, David Wesley, and Jon Barry give the Rockets added depth and stability in the backcourt, the mere fact that there are six teams better in the West will prevent the Rockets from getting out of the first round of the playoffs.


Timberwolves

No team in the NBA has been a bigger disappointment than the Timberwolves. Once regarded as the team to beat in the West after the departure of Shaquille O'Neal to Miami Heat, the Wolves find themselves hovering around .500 and currently out of the playoff picture.

There are two pertinent questions that come to mind when dissecting the Wolves. First, what has gone wrong?

Initially, it looked as if the failure to give contract extensions to Latrell Sprewell and Sam Cassell in the offseason was to blame for the slow start. Both players were unhappy when the season began and it affected both their individual performances and that of the team.


It's been a colder winter than usual for Saunders and his Wolves.
The only problem with that theory is that it would only account for the lethargy at the beginning of the season. When the Wolves failed to improve once December began, it became obvious that the problem was a little more complicated.

The next place to look was the chemistry of the starting lineup. With Kevin Garnett, Cassell, Sprewell, and Wally Sczerbiak all on the floor when the game began, the Wolves had the mindset of a team that wanted to outscore opponents, rather than stop them. The need for four guys to each find his rhythm simultaneously is a difficult proposition.

So, coach Flip Saunders made Trenton Hassell a starter and sent Szczerbiak to the bench looking for better chemistry. It worked in the short term as the Wolves ran off five in a row.

But, after dropping three straight, including an embarrassing home loss to the Suns on Wednesday night, it is becoming obvious this team might not get it together and make a run after all.

The Wolves appear to be a team that is tuning out their coach after his shelf life has expired. The redundancy of Saunders' motivational talks might be falling on deaf ears. His voice during timeouts may not be reaching his team. They are flat. They are lazy defensively. And, most importantly, they don't compete every night.

Saunders is one of the best coaches in the NBA. He is an innovative offensive mind and a tremendous manager of his roster. He is a winner. All of that is useless, however, if he has lost his team.

The Timberwolves have been a mystery all year. They play as if they suffer from chronic fatigue. They show no physical signs of an ailment, yet they are unable to muster the competitive fire to take their place among the leaders of the Western Conference where they belong.

They have half a season left to find themselves and take a place at the table of the true players in the title hunt. They've run out of excuses. It's time to perform.

Tim Legler, an NBA analyst for ESPN and former NBA 3-point champion, is a regular contributor to Insider.