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Defense vs Offense, JVG vs Adelman (with facts for once)

Discussion in 'Houston Rockets: Game Action & Roster Moves' started by H-TownBBall, May 19, 2007.

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  1. H-TownBBall

    H-TownBBall Member

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    I usually respect what the majority of the posters on this forum have to say, but recent posts are pretty ridiculous and uninformed. Balance wins championships. At best you can make the case that defense is 60% of the battle.

    Last 20 NBA Champions:
    05/06 Miami Heat Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 9
    04/05 San Antonio Spurs Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 1
    03/04 Detroit Pistons Off Eff: 18 Def Eff: 2
    02/03 San Antonio Spurs Off Eff: 6 Def Eff: 3
    01/02 Los Angeles Lakers Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 7
    00/01 Los Angeles Lakers Off Eff: 2 Def Eff: 21
    99/00 Los Angeles Lakers Off Eff: 6 Def Eff: 2
    98/99 San Antonio Spurs Off Eff: 10 Def Eff: 1
    97/98 Chicago Bulls Off Eff: 9 Def Eff: 3
    96/97 Chicago Bulls Off Eff: 1 Def Eff: 4
    95/96 Chicago Bulls Off Eff: 1 Def Eff: 1
    94/95 Houston Rockets Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 12
    93/94 Houston Rockets Off Eff: 16 Def Eff: 4
    92/93 Chicago Bulls Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 8
    91/92 Chicago Bulls Off Eff: 1 Def Eff: 4
    90/91 Chicago Bulls Off Eff: 1 Def Eff: 6
    89/90 Detroit Pistons Off Eff: 11 Def Eff: 2
    88/89 Detroit Pistons Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 3
    87/88 Los Angeles Lakers Off Eff: 2 Def Eff: 10
    86/87 Los Angeles Lakers Off Eff: 1 Def Eff: 6

    Worst Offense: 03/04 Pistons - 18
    Worst Defense: 00/01 Lakers - 21
    Highest Sum of Efficiencies: 00/01 Lakers - 23
    Average Offense: 6.1
    Average Defense: 5.45
    Average Sum of Efficiencies: 11.55
    Weighted Sum of Efficiencies (60% Defense, 40% Offense): 5.71
    Median Offense: 6
    Median Defense: 4
    Median Sum of Efficiencies: 11


    Teams Left in the Playoffs:
    Detroit Pistons Off Eff: 6 Def Eff: 6
    Cleveland Cavaliers Off Eff: 18 Def Eff: 4
    San Antonio Spurs Off Eff: 5 Def Eff: 2
    Utah Jazz Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 18

    Houston Rockets Off Eff: 14 Def Eff: 3

    There is very good chance that either the Spurs (5,2) or Pistons (6,6) will win the title this year. Once again, these teams have balance. I'm not advocating an up-tempo offense by any means. We have Yao, so we need to keep the pace slower and become more efficient in our offensive sets (ala Spurs and Pistons). However, getting some easy shots off of fast breaks or secondary breaks that either don't involve Yao at all or use him as a trailer certainly go a long way in increasing efficiency. The rules designed to increase offense are not specific to up-tempo styles. We just have to attack the rim with perimeter players (ala Dwayne Wade) on a more consistent basis.


    Rick Adelman Teams:
    05/06 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 12 Def Eff: 13
    04/05 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 22
    03/04 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 2 Def Eff: 21
    02/03 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 2
    01/02 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 5 Def Eff: 6
    00/01 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 9 Def Eff: 7
    99/00 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 15 Def Eff: 11
    98/99 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 13 Def Eff: 19
    96/97 Golden State Warriors Off Eff: 11 Def Eff: 28
    95/96 Golden State Warriors Off Eff: 13 Def Eff: 20
    93/94 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 12
    92/93 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 13 Def Eff: 2
    91/92 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 2
    90/91 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 3
    89/90 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 3
    88/89 Portland Trail Blazers (half season as coach)

    Worst Offense: 99/00 Kings - 15
    Worst Defense: 96/97 Warriors - 28
    Highest Sum of Efficiencies: 96/97 Warriors - 39
    Average Offense: 9.214
    Average Defense: 12.214
    Average Sum of Efficiencies: 10.714
    Weighted Sum of Efficiencies (60% Defense, 40% Offense): 11.014
    Median Offense: 8
    Median Defense: 9
    Median Sum of Efficiencies: 19.5


    Jeff Van Gundy Teams:
    06/07 Houston Rockets Off Eff: 14 Def Eff: 3
    05/06 Houston Rockets Off Eff: 29 Def Eff: 8
    04/05 Houston Rockets Off Eff: 15 Def Eff: 4
    03/04 Houston Rockets Off Eff: 24 Def Eff: 5
    01/02 New York Knicks (quarter season as coach)
    00/01 New York Knicks Off Eff: 18 Def Eff: 3
    99/00 New York Knicks Off Eff: 22 Def Eff: 7
    98/99 New York Knicks Off Eff: 26 Def Eff: 3
    97/98 New York Knicks Off Eff: 19 Def Eff: 4
    96/97 New York Knicks Off Eff: 18 Def Eff: 1
    95/96 New York Knicks (quarter season as coach)

    Worst Offense: 05/06 Rockets - 29
    Worst Defense: 05/06 Rockets - 8
    Highest Sum of Efficiencies: 05/06 Rockets - 37
    Average Offense: 20.556
    Average Defense: 4.222
    Average Sum of Efficiencies: 12.389
    Weighted Sum of Efficiencies (60% Defense, 40% Offense): 10.756
    Median Offense: 19
    Median Defense: 4
    Median Sum of Efficiencies: 23


    From the above objective evidence (lower average sum of efficiencies and lower median sum of efficiencies) and recent subjective evidence (Jeff Van Gundy can't get this team over the hump), I conclude that Rick Adelman is the better coach for this team. You could make the case that Jeff Van Gundy is the better coach for the team using the weighted sum of efficiencies. All of this is of little consequence now that the decision has been made. However, I am tired of the divided camps using inaccurate facts and uneducated opinions to support their arguments. Therefore, I present these facts and my analysis.

    Discuss.
     
    #1 H-TownBBall, May 19, 2007
  2. doublebogey

    doublebogey Member

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    It's simple and clear:

    Rick Adelman could coach his team had top 10 both in offense eff and def eff.

    While JVG's team had consistently top 10 defense eff. but offense eff. was always 14+

    With a same roaster, I'll Rick Adelman as coach any day of the week.
     
    #2 doublebogey, May 19, 2007
  3. ccjj

    ccjj Member

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    Good job. Are you Morey? ;)

    JVG is a good coach but he needs his style of player to play his game and he is not good in utilising the strength of his player. After 4 years, I think the Rocket needs a change.
     
    #3 ccjj, May 19, 2007
  4. SWTsig

    SWTsig Member

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    i still think we can become an elite team with a real pg and pf.
     
    #4 SWTsig, May 19, 2007
  5. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    Helpful analysis.

    Still, skewing the results (with 4 of the 5 #1 Off Eff in the last 20 year) is MJ. There is no MJ in the league right now. If you have an MJ, thow out all of your statistical analysis,

    And if you look at the last 10 years, defense has more than just an edge.

    It's good to see Adelman has the potential to coach a good defense, but no way he as brutally consistent on D as JVG. I wonder what our Off Eff was this year before Yao went down?
     
    #5 Cohen, May 19, 2007
  6. ccjj

    ccjj Member

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    But JVG's offenisve eff were consistently lower than average also.
     
    #6 ccjj, May 19, 2007
  7. orbb

    orbb Member

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    thing is, every good team plays can and will play lock down defense come playoffs. JVG's defense looked stellar during the regular season because we played lots of less than average teams. Our weakness on offense showed when we had to play teams that could match our intensity.

    If you have a rebuilding team trying to make some noise and over achieve, JVG is the man, hands down. You can keep teams from scoring 70 all season long, make the playoffs, get eliminated in the first round and still be happy. If you have an all star core and you need a few good players (read - can make a freaking open jumpshot), you need someone else.
     
    #7 orbb, May 19, 2007
  8. ling ling

    ling ling Member

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    Just to show... Adelman does know defense and offense.
    02/03 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 2
    01/02 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 5 Def Eff: 6
    00/01 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 9 Def Eff: 7
    92/93 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 13 Def Eff: 2
    91/92 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 2
    90/91 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 3
    89/90 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 3
     
    #8 ling ling, May 19, 2007
  9. DaDakota

    DaDakota Arrest all Pedophiles
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    Thank you for doing this, it is fairly clear that balance is what we need to succeed.

    Offense and Defense are both important.

    DD
     
    #9 DaDakota, May 19, 2007
    Last edited: May 19, 2007
  10. intergalactic

    intergalactic Member

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    Great analysis. What's amazing to me is that even in the Rockets 04-05 year, we were as low as 15th in offensive efficiency. That was the one year you could say our offense looked smooth, though that wasn't really the case until the last 1/3 of the season.

    The conclusion that JVG can't coach offense is pretty inescapable. Very encouraging signs on the defense side for Adelman, too. I'd guess he is a guy who focuses on offense first, then works on defense once he has enough personnel that fit his style.
     
    #10 intergalactic, May 19, 2007
  11. Amel

    Amel Member

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    check mate son

    very good work and analysis

    but at the end of the day I still would not put much into stats

    there are many other factors that could bring you a title

    anyways, thanks for putting it out
     
    #11 Amel, May 19, 2007
    Last edited: May 19, 2007
  12. DaDakota

    DaDakota Arrest all Pedophiles
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    Fixed.

    :D

    H-Town - where have all of JVG's teams ranked in both offense and defensive efficiency?

    That should be a good indicator of his abilities to coach both sides of the ball.

    DD
     
    #12 DaDakota, May 19, 2007
  13. smoothie

    smoothie Jabari Jungle

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    looking at adleman's past team effeciencies clearly showes that with the right roster he can coach a good defensive team.

    02/03 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 2
    01/02 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 5 Def Eff: 6
    00/01 Sacramento Kings Off Eff: 9 Def Eff: 7

    92/93 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 13 Def Eff: 2
    91/92 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 7 Def Eff: 2
    90/91 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 3 Def Eff: 3
    89/90 Portland Trail Blazers Off Eff: 8 Def Eff: 3

    he played guys like doug christie, and scott pollard who can't shoot worth a damn, but were great defenders. adleman is a better all around coach. what these numbers don't show is his ability to get the most out of his players, and adjust during games. things gundy never did.
     
    #13 smoothie, May 19, 2007
  14. Cohen

    Cohen Member

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    Undeniably so, but clearly defense has the edge in the playoffs, and good defense is harder to come by.

    What was our downfall? Team shooting consistency? The entire team would go into a slump. Why this occurs I have no idea (and no, it's not just the other teams's D since we know how many wide-open shots were missed). So how close were we to the promised land? Yet now it's all full of unknowns.
     
    #14 Cohen, May 19, 2007
  15. DaDakota

    DaDakota Arrest all Pedophiles
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    Fair points, Cohen.

    Do you think that the head coaches demeanor could have an effect on the players performance, especially during stress filled times?

    I just wonder if JVG's worry-wart approach doesn't add to the tension the players feel.

    DD
     
    #15 DaDakota, May 19, 2007
  16. mbiker

    mbiker Member

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    This is great information. I hope you post more often.
     
    #16 mbiker, May 19, 2007
  17. rockbox

    rockbox Around before clutchcity.com

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    Gumby's preaches season long intensity which skews the numbers even more. His teams can't put into another gear like the others. This is proven by the fact that Utah and Dallas shot over 50 percent in game 7 on us.

    Gumby is too easy to figure out because he doesn't have any tricks up his sleeve other than having Rybo cover Dirk.
     
    #17 rockbox, May 19, 2007
  18. solid

    solid Member

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    A more offensively oriented game (balance accepted) will require SHOOTERS. Ultimately, the Rocket's ole nemesis, "can't shoot straight," was their undoing. This team has been Brick City for a good long time. (the Sura-Barry team going seven with Dallas was a slight exception)
     
    #18 solid, May 19, 2007
  19. Panda

    Panda Member

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    Word.
     
    #19 Panda, May 19, 2007
  20. Amel

    Amel Member

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    hey

    many say it was the greatest move in NBA history :p
     
    #20 Amel, May 19, 2007
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