Those following oeilpere's big thread will notice two stunning comments. (1) the "Mormons are talking," and (2) RT is "really, really" worried about Francis's ability to "take it to the next level." Would you convert your 2 picks into cap space for next Summer? This is done by trading them for Malone's 20ppg but forcing Utah to take Rice, as well. Malone's contract then expires next summer and you kick him out of town with a big cc.net last game party to booo him!!! YESH!!! That actually might be worth making the trade all by itself. Is Malone's expiring contract enough cap space to land Duncan? Is it?? If so, this might be a no-brainer and this question is simple--Do you use your 2 picks to enter the Duncan Derby? But note, before next Summer's free agency season begins, Francis's salary will increase 3-fold by either being under a max extension or being a restricted free agent counting 300% his rookie scale against the cap (~#11m). Won't this increase make Malone's expiring contract a near wash. We might end up with some capspace, but enough for Duncan?? Then the question becomes, if you trade Francis for the top pick, you exchange Francis's expiring rookie scale for a brand spanking new rookie scale. hmmmmm. This will definitely clear enough room for Duncan. <b>My take is:</b> I can't bare to have Malone on my team. So, screw it. Something bad would happen. But I bet you Red Auerbach would do it, knowing damn well Duncan would sign with him in a heartbeat. I mean: Duncan, Griffin, Mobley and whoever Francis lands is pretty damn formidable. If Francis lands Ming...the competition becomes a joke. Remember, whatever goes down, you have Malone's 20ppg for one season; you have $12m (guess estimation) in capspace next Summer; and you have at least the 2nd best player in this draft, for that gamble, you give up Francis and your 2 picks.
sounds good and all ...however, the last time the Rox had cap space, they fornicated themselves and signed that barrell of monkey spew called Mo T. Granted you are doing it to build for the future, but there is no way we would be guaranteed to get Duncan (or anyone else via free agency for that matter)
How can one rationalize a course of action that would lead us down a path in which we trade away Steve Francis yet trade for Karl Malone, all in the hopes of getting Tim Duncan down the road, which would be a very very slim possibility made even slimmer due to the fact that we would absolutely suck next year?
I didnt read the last paragraph of heypartner's post.....scratch the thing i said about it sounding good
Given Francis' max extension, and/or the salary we would have to take in return for trading him, I would guess we would have to dump not only Rice, but MoT and Moochie to free up Duncan type money. Maybe one of the board's cap experts can run the numbers.
Did you read the "My take is" part? Trading Francis for Ming is something to consider all by itself. Trading the #5 for serious capspace is really all that you are doing. The #15 is pretty negligible. anyhow, how else do you explain the Malone talk in oeilpere's thread?
Not a bad scenario, but in my opinion it is too risky. Duncan had a chance to leave last time and didn't, players get entrenched in a cities lifestyle. They have family, friends etc....and if the money is the same, why leave? I think it would be too risky, if you could GUARANTEE that Duncan would come, we should consider it, if not...well..... DaDakota
According to Rudy's comments in oeilpere's thread, keeping Francis is not risk free. He is worried about him going to the next level. Signing Francis pretty much puts us over the cap for 10 years, as we would be signing Griffin soon, too. How risky is cashing in on Francis...possibly big time for Ming, and not using your #5 to get $12m in capspace and one last year of Malone's 20ppg.
Francis for Ming is a no-brainer. But what team wouldn't draft Ming? Chicago? They already had Brand and drafted Fizer. They already had Fizer and drafted Curry AND Chandler. I don't see them or anyone else having a shot at Ming and passing.
Drafting a guy (Ming) who may or may not make himself available deoending on who drafts him....RISK Clearing capspace to POTENTIALLY sign the best forward in the NBA...RISK Signing Stevie who has won rookie of the year, been an all star, and who has been one of 4 players to average 20+/7+/6+ this past year(not to mention averaging 1+ migraines per game)...NO RISK
Too many If's and Maybe's We are scraping our backcourt (Mobley would probably bolt if Franchise was traded?) Then we are hoping for Duncan to leave a good SA team to come to a so-so Houston team. I wouldn't do it.
HP - I thought Pops' words were to the effect that the Mormons were talking. He didn't specifically say Malone...we all kind of assumed this. Could it be Donyell Marshall or Stockton? Let's assume it is Malone. Is this the lineup you are proposing? 5) Ming / Cato 4) Malone / Mo T / EG 3) EG / TMo 2) Cat / OT 1) Moochie So it's the picks and Rice for Malone and Francis (and maybe KT) for Ming and filler?
GATER, Forget Malone for a second. Oeilpere did say they are considering packaging Rice with the 2 picks. It could be a: (1) legit player (Odom+filler), or (2) a high dollar expiring contract. I doubt Les makes the trade for a high-dollar SF like Lewis/Odom, unless CD figures out a way to move Rice's salary. That is a thread in itself. Would you go for Odom or Lewis if it purged Rice's contract? Of course, that doesn nothing towards the cap, because that involves matching salaries...and it better be long term. Anyhow, oeilpere's scenario is surely #1, so my scenario is discussing #2 . . . moving Rice and the 2 picks for an expiring contract to get into the Duncan Derby. In that scenario, you have to move Francis for a rookie scale (a rookie or a 1 or 2yr vet) to clear enough for Duncan. My feelings this is only an option to consider if bad things happen on draft day. My feelings are that Red Auerbach would do it in a heartbeat if his picked got bumped to #6. So, the discussion centers around the other options not happening: we get bumped to #6, don't like that pick, and can't make a trade...and Rudy tells you in person that he is worried about Francis. What if he told you that, in person?
HP - I probably shouldn't have (hand) mowed my lawn so close to noon but I think I'm following you. Here's the givens: 1) A well foundated concern that Steve may not deliver - either by ability or the headache thing. 2) A commentment/interest to pursue Tim Duncan. 3) Available: pick #6 and pick number 14/15 with Glen Rice attached and whatever can be obtained for Steve Francis and KT. OK, so the goal is capspace and the bargaining chips are point #3. Here's one better than Malone: Houston sends Francis + Kenny Thomas + Rice + filler + #6 + (maybe #15) for the Heats #9 (currently Caron Butler) and Alonzo Mourning. Mourning expires next summer also and may consider the vet minimum to play with Duncan. Duncan does not want to play center! Would this team interest him? 5) Mourning / Cato 4) EG / MoT 3) Butler / EG / TMo (improved) 2) Cat / OT 1) Moochie and ? (Roger Mason or Dan Dickau if the Heat don't need/want pick 15). Again, there is a glut at PF and the above team is augmented by a trade for MoT. Remember this - the Heat have 3 contracts (ZO, Grant, Jones) which put them near the cap. Sorry for the rambling but if the choice was between Zo and Malone, I'd take Zo.
What about Mourning? Send that pick #5, Cato,Rice,andMoochie Norris to Miami for Mourning. Put all the salaries together and their pretty equal. His contarct expires after the upcoming season. If he plays well, which 15pts 8rebs and 2 blks are not too bad, then you can either let him go and go after duncan or sign him at a reduced rate. Either way you get a fierce competitor, get a chance to unload some salaries and Miami gets to start over with the high pick and some role player along with their pick. Even though he's not the same player he was, he's still 32 and one of the top centers in the league. The thing is that you got rid of your mistakes in Cato,Rice and Moochie. After that you can trade Thomas and the other pick + the trade exception for maybe a player like odom signed. After that , you fill you roster out with role players like Morris,Brown,Collier,Taylor,and Torres. If you're trying to get cap space for a run at Duncan and still be competitive, i think that a safe bet. I think mailman will retire before playing for the Rockets or some other non contender.
How about Rice + 14/15 pick for Ostertag/Kirilenko? I would do this deal in a second. Ostertag has only 2 years left on his deal, the same as Rice. He can languish on the bench behind Cato. Besides, Rudy only trades or signs players that do well against the Rockets, and Ostertag used to hold his own with Hakeem. Houston trades: SF Glen Rice (8.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.6 apg in 30.3 minutes) Houston receives: C Greg Ostertag (3.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.7 apg in 15.0 minutes) SF Andrei Kirilenko (10.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg in 26.2 minutes) Change in team outlook: +5.4 ppg, +6.7 rpg, and +0.2 apg. Utah trades: C Greg Ostertag (3.3 ppg, 4.2 rpg, 0.7 apg in 15.0 minutes) SF Andrei Kirilenko (10.7 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 1.1 apg in 26.2 minutes) Utah receives: SF Glen Rice (8.6 ppg, 2.4 rpg, 1.6 apg in 20 games) Change in team outlook: -5.4 ppg, -6.7 rpg, and -0.2 apg. TRADE ACCEPTED
Leebigez...I agree that it would be a great trade for us, but the ONLY reason Miami is contemplating letting go of Zo is to clear the same cap room that we are talking about clearing...there is no way they would take on contracts that will take them out of the Duncan Derby
The only question that I have is, how do we match up salaries without pulling a Denver & gutting the team? Malone's contract for next year is ~$19.25 million. We'd have to trade Rice ($9.2 mill), Francis ($4.383 mill), & Moochie or Collier/KT to get close enough to the 115% rule (~$16.36-$22.13 mill), in order to make that deal work. OP indicated that Cato ($6.696 mill) is going to be kept by the Rockets & that Taylor ($7.15 mill) might be instumental in acquiring Rashard. That doesn't leave us a lot of options to acquire Malone for next year, without gutting the team. I don't know if giving up that much would be worth it, but if they decide it's worth it, then go for it. Here's the Rocket's projected team salaries for the next 2 years: Player 2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 Glen Rice $8,800,000 $9,200,000 $9,600,000 Maurice Taylor $6,500,000 $7,150,000 $7,800,000 Kelvin Cato $6,048,000 $6,696,000 $7,344,000 Walt Williams $5,000,000 $0 $0 Cuttino Mobley $4,413,375 $4,903,750 $5,394,125 Moochie Norris $3,600,000 $3,600,000 $3,600,000 Steve Francis $3,473,520 $4,383,582 $5,720,574 Eddie Griffin $2,011,080 $2,161,920 $2,312,760 Jason Collier $1,280,040 $1,369,440 $2,099,352 Kenny Thomas $946,920 $1,557,683 $2,225,526 Terence Morris $490,000 $512,435 $0 Dan Langhi $465,850 $0 $0 Tierre Brown $332,817 $0 $0 Oscar Torres $332,817 $0 $0 TOTALS: $46,694,419 $41,534,810 $36,050,885
