BREAKDOWN: Us, vs The Guys In Our Sights

(severe case of too-much-time-on-his-hands-itis, today, I supppose..)

Anyway..

Spent some time breaking down, at least rudimentarily, the remaining
schedules for the Rockets, as well as the Grizz, Mavs, and Lakers.

Some interesting tidbits came out:

*Of our 17 remaining games, only 6 games are against West teams
ahead of us in the standings, and three of those are in Houston.

*Of our remaining 17 games, we have FOUR sets of back-to-back games.
(8 of 17, or almost half)

*Memphis has it worse - they only have 16 games left, and they also
have 4 sets of back-to-backs. The Mavs and the Lakers each have
only two sets remaining.

*Only one other team in the West (GS) has played as few games as
the Rockets have - 65. Everyone else has played between 66 and 68 -
meaning we have more games left to make up ground.

*Even though Dallas has been stinky on the road this year, their
remaining road games have only 3 opponents against whom they
are likely to lose: Jersey, Indiana, and Houston

*Dallas and L.A. both by FAR have easier schedules the rest of the way
than either Houston or Memphis. Both teams could realistically go 12-4
the rest of the way.

*Lots of talk has centered on Houston's schedule being the 'toughest'
remaing schedule in the west, but I believe Memphis' schedule is even
more brutal than ours. I can easily see the Griz losing 6 of their last
7 games.

*Each of the 4 teams has pretty well established, by now, what kind
of team they are, how good they are, and therefore, when looking
at the schedules, you should be able to make a fairly good guess
about the outcome. (Even though Houston has pretty much defined
the term 'inconsistency' this year, they seem to be getting their balance
at the right time). However, each team has what I will call 'Swing Games '
left, meaning that they are games that could reasonably go either
way, for one reason or another. In other words, the swing games
are the games in which the results may surprise you, and could easily
go contrary to predictions.

*Dallas only really has one swing game, that being April 13 at home
against the Griz. Opposite end of that spectrum is L.A., whose 16
remaining games have, by my count, 8 games in which they could
do the opposite of what one would expect them to do. Memphis and
Houston are in the middle.

(swing games in blue)

Houston Rockets

03-15___Phoenix___(W)___
03-19___@_GS_____(W)___
03-21___@_Kings___(L)____
03-22___@_Por____(W)____
03-24___Toronto___(W)____
03-26___@_Griz____(W)___
03-28___@_Bucks___(W)____
03-29___Minn______(W)___
04-01___@_Lakers___(L)___
04-02___@_Nuggz___(L)___
04-04___Kings_____(L)___
04-06___@_G.S.___(W)___
04-07___@_Clips___(W)___
04-09___Nuggz___(W)___
04-10___@_Jazz___(W)___
04-12___@_Sonics__(W)___
04-14___Dallas____(W)___

It looks to me like we will have a rough first week of April, losing 3 in
a row, but then bounce back to finish strong. It looks like our most
reasonable 'best-case' scenario would have us finish on a 13-4 run
and end up at 52-30. With the swing games in the mix, we're looking
at about maybe a worst case of 10-7 and a 49-33 record. This assumes,
of course, that the Rox saty focused, and keep playing at their current
level of quality play. I will be EXTREMELY surprised if we finish below
49 or above 52 wins. I think that's our window.

Memphis Grizzlies

03-16___76ers___(W)___
03-18___Sonics___(W)___
03-20___Pacers___(L)___
03-23___Raptors__(W)__
04-24___@_Knicks___(L)___
03-26___Houston___(L)___
03-28___@_Tor____(W)___
03-29___@_Hawks__(W)___
04-02___Suns_____(W)____
04-04___@_Minn___(L)____
04-05___@_Jazz___(L)___
04-07___Cavs____(L)____
04-09___@_Lakers___(L)___
04-11___@_Suns____(W)___
04-13___@_Dallas___(L)____
04-14___Minny______(L)____

It really looks to me like Memphis is going to have the wheels come
off in April. In 3 of the 4 sets of back-to-backs, they face playoff-level
teams (or at least teams which should be scrambling for the playoffs)
on the second of the two games. That's why I see them losing at the
Knicks, at the Jazz, and at home against Minny in the last reg.season
game. I think the very best they could manage would be maybe 11-5,
which would place them at 52-30... but with this schedule, they could
just as easily stumble in at 6-10, to finish 47-35.

To me, this is not particularly good news. I believe very strongly that
we WILL pass up Memphis and take the 6th spot heading into the
playoffs, dropping the Griz to 7th.. This means that, as things stand
now, we would face, not the TWolves, as everyone hopes, but the Spurs.
We lose that series handily. So, as we are busy passing up
the Griz and feeling good, we also need to become the world's biggest
Spurs fans, in the hopes that San Antonio makes up the 2 games by
which it trails Minny.. problem is, the Spurs would probably rather
face us than Memphis, and I guarantee Minnesota wants NO part of
Houston in the first round, so all in all I am not too optimistic that the
Spurs overtake the Wolves and win the Central.

In that case, the only real hope we have is that the Mavs stumble
badly and let us pass them up for 5th place, in which case we would
face the Lakers. That would be my second choice behind Minny as
the preferred opponent in the first round.

It would be a good thing, but it is not likely. See below.

Dallas Mavericks

03-17___Hawks___(W)___
03-19___Celts____(W)___
03-21___@_Nets__(L)___
03-22___@_76ers_(W)___
03-24___@_Pacers_(L)___
03-26___@_Heat__(W)___
03-28___@_Magic__(W)___
04-01___Kings____(L)____
04-03___Suns_____(W)___
04-06___Sonics____(W)___
04-08___Jazz_____(W)___
04-10___@_Sonics_(W)___
04-11___@_G.S.___(W)___
04-13___Memphis__(W)___
04-14___@_ROX___(L)____

It looks to me like the Mavs have a creampuff schedule. Even though
they have sucked royally on the road lately (and therein lies our one
faint hope), only 3 of those road opponents should beat them (Nets,
Pacers, and Rockets). If the Mavs manage to lose to any of those
other lottery teams on their road schedule, then they are in some
serious trouble come playoff time, IMHO. Maybe Walker somehow
contributes to this team just disintegrating down the stretch, or
some other miracle happens to let us pass them up.. in any case, I
doubt it, but you never know. Stranger things have happened.

Bur if we Do somehow manage to pass the Mavs, that leaves us with
the Lakers in the playoffs.

Los Angeles Lakers

03-15___Magic___(W)___
03-17___@_Clips_(W)___
03-19___Clips____(W)___
03-21___Bucks___(W)___
03-24___Kings____(L)___
03-26___Minny___(L)___
03-28___Jazz____(W)___
03-30___Hornets_(W)___
04-01___Rockets_(W)___
04-02___@_Sonics_(W)___
04-04___Spurs___(L)____
04-06___Portland_(W)___
04-09___Grizz____(W)___
04-11___@_Kings_(L)____
04-13___G.S._____(W)___
04-14___@_Por.__(W)____

The first thing that jumps out at me about the Lakers' schedule is,
if anyone ever tells you that the schedule-makers do not deliberately
try to make some teams' schedule easier as they mosey to the playoffs,
they are LYING to you. 12 of the final 16, a home'away vs the Clips
(who did they have to fellate to get THAT on their schedule this time of year?),
and only 5 games against good teams.

On the other hand, I think the Lakers are the most unpredictable of
the four teams.. based on how unstable their season has been, and
all of the soap-operas they have been having to deal with, this team
could go in any wild direction, and it would totally surprise me. The Lakers
could easily go 12-4 the rest of the way (or heck they could run the table
for that matter), or they could just as easily do a crashand-burn and
fall flat with a 7-9 record.. if they do that, then the possibility still
exists that we could steal 4th and have home-court in the first round.
If so, I would much rather both Dallas and LA fall, so that we get LA
instead of the Mavs or Grizz.

I could see maybe one of them falling flat, but both would be a serious
stretch.. if one falls, we will likely end up with the other in the first
round.. While I would not prefer Dallas in the 1st round, that would
be better than the Spurs.


Well, after all that thinking and writing, I predict that the Lakers and Mavs
do NOT fall flat, and retain the 4th and 5th spots.. however, I would
be extremely surprised if we do not pass Memphis for the 6th spot.
Also, I believe that Minny is looking over their shoulders, they are
scared of us, and start playing scared as they see us passing
Memphis, and they lose the Midwest to the Spurs, leaving us heading
up to Minnesota to *ONCE AGAIN* knock the Wolves out in the first
round - and then get schooled by TD in the 2nd round.

So, what do you guys think? Does any of this make sense? Am I
completely off base somewhere? Did I leave anything important out?
Did I bore you to tears? hehe I am just trying to contribute to a
general positive atmosphere as we head into the postseason for
the first time in a long time..

Lemme know your thoughts...

 

Damn no edit!

Sorry it is so long.. just got on a roll.. ugh..

Anyway, we have FIVE back-to-back sets, not four.. meaning 10 of our
final 17 games are on consecutive nights.. which means that Utah
game might bite us hard.. 4th game in 5 nights.. besides, by that time,
JVG may be ready to rest some of his players, I can feel that Utah loss
already..