Are we a very good offensive team yet?

In a chat a few weeks ago, Daryl Morey said that a championship caliber team is typically top 10 in both offense and defense, and is dominant in at least one of them. For the season, we are currently 16th in offensive efficiency and 2nd in defensive efficiency. But over this winning streak, have we finally become a really good offense team?

Here's how all the teams rank in offensive efficiency since our 15-game winning streak began:

Code:

[B]     team                 won    los    ORTG    season_ortg[/B]
1    TorontoRaptors       8      7      118.9   112.0
2    OrlandoMagic         10     5      118.6   112.0
3    LALakers             15     3      115.9   112.2
4    GSWarriors           9      4      115.2   111.6
5    DetroitPistons       12     3      113.1   111.7
6    PhoenixSuns          7      7      113.0   113.5
7    NOrleansHornets      7      7      112.7   111.2
8    UtahJazz             11     4      112.6   111.9
9    DenverNuggets        9      6      112.5   108.1
10   HoustonRockets       15     0      112.2   106.6
11   BostonCeltics        12     4      111.7   110.8
12   Philadelphia76ers    10     5      110.7   104.9
13   IndianaPacers        5      10     110.2   105.6
14   SacramentoKings      8      8      109.2   107.3
15   SanAntonioSpurs      13     2      108.4   108.9
16   ClevelandCavaliers   10     7      108.3   106.3
17   MilwaukeeBucks       4      11     106.7   105.0
18   NJNets               8      7      106.5   103.4
19   DallasMavericks      8      8      106.5   111.3
20   WashingtonWizards    6      11     106.4   107.9
21   NYKnicks             4      12     105.1   103.9
22   AtlantaHawks         6      11     104.2   104.6
23   PortlandTrailBlazers 5      11     103.9   107.3
24   ChicagoBulls         6      10     103.4   102.2
25   CharlotteBobcats     2      12     102.7   104.0
26   SeattleSupersonics   7      8      102.7   100.5
27   MiamiHeat            2      13     102.3   102.3
28   LAClippers           6      10     102.2   101.6
29   MinnesotaT-wolves    4      11     100.1   101.4
30   MemphisGrizzlies     1      13      99.0   105.0

This kind of surprised me. I figured, after going 15-0 and having a number of blow out wins, that we'd be amongst the league leaders in offensive efficiency over this streak. But we were still ranked just 10th. There is definitely some improvement in the offense, but it still appears to be middling with respect to other playoff-bound teams. Contrast that to our defense ranking over this streak:

Code:

     [B]team                 won     los   DRTG    season_drtg[/B]
1    HoustonRockets       15      0     98.1    101.3
2    SanAntonioSpurs      13      2     99.7    102.7
3    DetroitPistons       12      3     102.0   103.2
4    Philadelphia76ers    10      5     103.4   106.3
5    BostonCeltics        12      4     103.7   99.0
6    LALakers             15      3     104.4   104.6
7    MinnesotaT-wolves    4       11    105.4   110.4
8    DallasMavericks      8       8     105.6   106.3
9    ChicagoBulls         6       10    105.8   105.8
10   DenverNuggets        9       6     106.1   105.0
11   UtahJazz             11      4     106.4   106.7
12   NJNets               8       7     106.6   108.4
13   ClevelandCavaliers   10      7     107.0   106.7
14   SeattleSupersonics   7       8     107.9   108.2
15   LAClippers           6       10    108.6   106.7
16   GSWarriors           9       4     109.9   109.0
17   TorontoRaptors       8       7     109.9   107.1
18   PortlandTrailBlazers 5       11    110.0   107.9
19   PhoenixSuns          7       7     110.1   107.8
20   SacramentoKings      8       8     110.9   110.0
21   OrlandoMagic         10      5     111.1   106.9
22   AtlantaHawks         6       11    112.0   106.9
23   WashingtonWizards    6       11    112.4   108.7
24   MemphisGrizzlies     1       13    112.4   111.6
25   IndianaPacers        5       10    112.5   107.7
26   MiamiHeat            2       13    113.3   110.0
27   NYKnicks             4       12    113.5   111.8
28   NOrleansHornets      7       7     114.3   105.4
29   MilwaukeeBucks       4       11    115.8   112.4
30   CharlotteBobcats     2       12    115.9   110.1

The Rockets have been great on that end of the court (fattening up on some meager competition, I might add). We're becoming a more balanced team, but I still don't believe our offense is at the level it needs to be for us to be a champion-caliber team. If after 15 straight wins against a soft schedule we're still only 10th on that end, how might we rank between now and the playoffs?

 

Average efficiency has been up a bit over this stretch. Average for the season was at 107, and for this stretch I think it was closer to 109. And, when you're dealing with smaller sample, as you say the variance will increase so the ratings will be more spread out.

San Antonio hasn't had a great offensive stretch over these games, but I think they've proven over the entire season that they are a solid if not spectacular offensive team. They've really turned it up on defense of late. I'm not sure what their schedule has been like recently, but it couldn't have been any easier than the Rocket's schedule.

 

Well, we know that we been facing a relatively soft schedule ... so unless we improve we can expect our offensive ranking to get worse than 10th moving forward.

Here's our offensive and defensive rating progression over the course of the season:



You're right, JeapardE. There's been steady improvement in offense. If we're playing much better now than we were at the beginning of the streak, maybe we're better than a 10th ranked team. So there's reason to be optimistic.