Division title: can it be done?

Dallas bro, Dallas

 

Yes.


CJ

 

I think the best case would be if the spurs could get to the 5th seed and then play GS in the 2nd round. If anyone can figure out how to stop GS in a 7 game series its Popovich.

 

All of this is calculated based on Hollinger's team ranking model, which highly prioritizes point differential. The problem with Houston is that we are run by Kevin McHale, who likes to go all Kubiak on his opponents when we are up big. We never blow anyone out. Period.

The fallacy associated with these ratings and Dallas, however, is that they are run by Rick Carlisle. Carlisle has completely bought into advanced stats and as such knows how to game them. He is absolutely merciless against bottom feeders. That is why Dallas wins by like 30 against the guttertrash of the NBA and then proceeds to get blown out by 15-20 against any contender. Step aside Kevin Martin: they are the true fool's gold of the NBA.

 

Either #2 or #3 keep you away from GSW until the WCF so that should be the goal. As far as 1st round opponents, let's be real, if you have plans on WCF it doesn't really matter who you get in the 1st round. #2 vs #7 or #3 vs #6, we would and should be favored. But hey you never know, matchups and refs can screw a team.

 

A division title is definitely possible now. We need Memphis to lose at home to the Warriors(Kerr better not sit a bunch of guys!) and then at San Antonio this weekend. Then they need to lose at least 2 of 3 on their 3-game road trip late in the season(Utah, LA Clippers, Golden State) and hopefully drop another game in there somewhere(maybe at home vs. OKC, Washington, or New Orleans).

If that happens, the Rockets would need to finish 56-26 in order to wind up with a better record than the Grizzlies. Which is doable, but tough. The key will be not losing at home anymore and then not getting swept on that 3-game road trip at Dallas, OKC, and San Antonio.

I have a terrible feeling though that we'll wind up a game or 2 back of Memphis to end the season. Which means the division title and 2nd seed will have come down to that non-call against Harden.

 

Just 1.5 back now, and the Grizzlies have a pretty tough schedule (that blown call in the last Grizzlies game could end up being the difference between 2 & 3).

 

Still no.

DD

 

our schedule is crazy, 3 b2b games and dozen of good teams:

@Washington
@Toronto (b2b)
vs Sacramento
@Dallas (b2b)
@Oklahoma City
@San Antonio
vs San Antonio
vs New Orleans
@Charlotte (b2b)
vs Utah

I hope we are able to go 6-4 at worst.

Grizzlies have tough schedule as well:

@San Antonio
vs Sacramento (b2b)
vs Oklahoma City
vs Washington (b2b)
vs New Orleans
@Utah
@Los Angeles (Clippers, b2b)
@Golden State
vs Indiana

they may go 4-5 at worst, but most likely 5-4 or 6-3

 

Such a negative nancy. We're a 1/2 game back dude.

 

I said before the games Friday that we will surpass the Grizz this weekend.

3/27 Results
1 Golden State 59 13
2 Memphis 50 23
3 Houston 49 23
4 Portland 45 26
5 LA Clippers 48 25
6 San Antonio 46 26
7 Dallas 45 28
8 Oklahoma City 41 31
Phoenix 39 34
New Orleans 38 34

3/28 Results
1 Golden State 60 13
2 Memphis 50 23
3 Houston 49 23
4 Portland 46 26
5 LA Clippers 48 25
6 San Antonio 46 26
7 Dallas 45 28
8 Oklahoma City 41 32
Phoenix 39 34
New Orleans 38 34


3/29 Results
1 Golden State 60 13
2 Houston 50 23
3 Memphis 50 24
4 Portland 46 26
5 LA Clippers 49 25
6 San Antonio 47 26
7 Dallas 46 28
8 Oklahoma City 41 33
Phoenix 40 34
New Orleans 38 34

 

The problem is the injuries. If the Rockets had their full roster(even sans Bev), I'd say we had a very good shot. But with Dwight having to miss one of the games this weekend and either Dallas or Sactown next week and being without D-Mo and T-Jones on top of that, we're gonna have our hands full.

It is still possible. If we can at least split these two road games(@WAS,@TOR), win at home against Sactown, get at least one of the games on the 3-game road trip from hell(@DAL, @OKC, @SAS), and then sweep our last four(SAS, NOP, @CHA, UTH), that leaves us at 56-26.

The key then is will Memphis lose 4 more games to finish at 55-27? Or another scenario is they lose 3 games with one being at San Antonio and the other at home against New Orleans while the Rockets win either at Dallas or San Antonio. That would leave both teams at 56-26, but we'd have a 9-7 division record and Memphis would be at 8-8. Thus we get the tiebreaker and the division title.

 

Memphis is sucking wind. This is happening.

 

I think we could get 2nd if we had a healthy team. With no Dmo, Jones, Bev or Papa and Dwight notnplaying B2B I will be happy if we stay top 5

 

It shall be done.

 

It's going to happen.

 

DMO and T Jones out a week.. no news on K Pap gonna be tough

 

Never thought we will be fighting for the title with Memphis, of all SW teams.

Don't think their slump will last any longer though, they will bounce back.